Mapping the council races in Ward 22 – Scarborough-Agincourt and Ward 23 – Scarborough North

I continue the mapping of Toronto’s 25 council races by taking a look at two Scarborough wards.

Ward 22, Scarborough-Agincourt, was a battle between two right-leaning incumbent councillors, Norm Kelly and Jim Karygiannis. Ward 23, Scarborough North, was one of only two wards that didn’t have a councillor running for re-election.

Ward 22

Ward 22, Scarborough North, pit 77-year old council veteran Norm Kelly against 63-year old council rookie Jim Karygiannis. They share similar politics (both are centre-right councillors, and both are former Liberal MPs), but have different styles. Ward 22 is bounded by Victoria Park on the west, Midland Avenue on the east, Highway 401 on the south, and Steeles Avenue on the north.

Norm Kelly was first elected to municipal politics in 1974 as an alderman on Scarborough council and a Liberal MP between 1980 and 1984. He returned to Scarborough council in 1994 and has served on Toronto City Council since the 1997 amalgamation, and was a reliable ally on council for mayors Mel Lastman and Rob Ford.

Under Mayor Ford, Kelly was named deputy mayor in August 2013, only a few months before council stripped Ford of most of his powers as his personal scandals deepened. Kelly assumed most of the mayor’s responsibilities and served admirably.

Despite his personal popularity and his right-leaning credentials, Kelly was left outside new mayor John Tory’s inner circle. Instead, Kelly, who became better known as “@norm” spend his time boosting his social media presence, getting into Twitter spats on behalf of rapper Drake, and pitching merchandise. His millennial-baiting “6 Dad” act was cute for a short time, but became increasingly irritating, especially as his hip social media presence contrasted with his conservative politics and his denial of climate change.

Jim Karygiannis was a Liberal MP from 1988 to 2014, and had a reputation as a socially conservative Liberal. Despite being a sitting MP, he chose to resign and run for city council, perhaps feeling out of place in a more socially progressive caucus. Karygiannis’ first term on council was unremarkable, but he is known as a community-oriented councillor, responsive to local needs (though I very much disagreed with his response to the death of a young boy in his ward after he was struck by a car on a residential street earlier this year).

Kelly was disadvantaged by the fact that part of his old ward, Ward 40, was not included in the new Ward 22 (the area south of Highway 401 and north of Ellesmere Road), while the entirety of Ward 39, Karygiannis’ turf, was part of the new ward. On the east side, the boundary shifted slightly eastward, from the GO rail corridor to Midland Avenue.

In the end, Karygiannis won with 46.8 percent of the vote to Kelly’s 37.0 percent. Karygiannis placed first in all but three polls in former Ward 39, and also 9 polls on Kelly’s old turf. The “6 Dad” finally got his long-overdue retirement.

2018 Election - W22
Poll-level map for Ward 22


Ward 23

Ward 23 was one of only two council races that didn’t have a councillor seeking re-election (the other was Ward 19). Chin Lee, who represented the area for many years, resigned early this year to run for provincial office as a Liberal, and was replaced by an appointed councillor. Though Lee lost, he did not seek a return to municipal politics, unlike his colleague Shelley Carroll.

The new Ward 23, located north of Highway 401 between Midland Avenue and Neilson Road, encompassed almost the entirety of former Ward 41 and the western third of former Ward 42, previously represented by Neethan Shan.

Among those running in Ward 23 were Cynthia Lai, past president of the Toronto Real Estate Board; Maggie Chi, who worked as a constituency assistant in Councillor Lee’s office; Felicia Samuel, who ran for the New Democrats in the 2018 provincial election. Lai had run in the 2014 election against Chin Lee, placing second with 23.0 percent of the vote.

In 2018, Lai won, getting 27.0 percent of the vote in a crowded field of eleven candidates. Chi placed second, with 20.0 percent of the vote. Samuel came in third. Lai and Chi did best in the northwestern part of the ward, where a large segment of the population identifies as Chinese-Canadian. Samuel did well in former Ward 42, especially in Malvern. Maggie Chi placed first in only three polls, but she was the second-place candidate in most polls that picked Cynthia Lai.

I was expecting to see Felicia Samuel do better because of her impressive run for provincial office in the same area. That was a bit of a disappointment.

2018 Election - W23Poll-level map for Ward 23



Full Results

Ward 22 Scarborough-Agincourt
Candidate Total votes Percentage
Jude Coutinho 234 0.9
Jim Karygiannis 12593 46.8
Norm Kelly 9944 37.0
Michael Korzeniewski 660 2.5
Roland Lin 2789 10.4
Vincent Lee 597 2.2
Jason Woychesko 90 0.3
Ward 23 – Scarborough North
Candidate Total Votes Percentage
Ashwani Bhardwaj 1259 6.1
Maggie Chi 4137 20.0
James Chow 1487 7.2
Dameon Halstead 391 1.9
Anthony Internicola 254 1.2
Sheraz Khan 453 2.2
Cynthia Lai 5589 27.0
Mahboob Mian 335 1.6
Neethan Saba 2808 13.6
Felicia Samuel 3702 17.9
Sandeep Srivastava 273 1.3
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Mapping the council race in Ward 3 – Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Etobicoke-Lakeshore represents the southern third of Etobicoke, stretching from Dundas Street in the north to Lake Ontario in the south, encompassing the historic villages of Islington, Long Branch, New Toronto, and Mimico, as well as sprawling industrial areas and post-war subdivisions. It also includes the rapidly growing high-rise communities of Humber Bay Shores and Six Points.

In 2014, Etobicoke-Lakeshore elected two city councillors, veteran Mark Grimes in Ward 6, south of the Gardiner Expressway, and a new councilor, Justin Di Ciano, in the north half. The pair are friends and were close allies on council prior to the 2018 election.

For many years, Ward 5, located north of the Gardiner Expressway, was represented by Peter Milczyn. Milczyn, an architect by training, was a thoughtful centrist on Toronto City Council. In Spring 2014, Milczyn, a Liberal, was elected to the provincial legislature. James Maloney (elected as a Liberal MP in the 2015 federal election) was appointed by council as a caretaker representative until the Fall 2014 election, which was won by Justin Di Ciano.

Di Ciano, a real estate executive, won Ward 5 with 54.1 percent of of the vote in 2014 and placed first in all but two polls. Nobody knew it at the time, but the 2014 election was the start of Justin Di Ciano’s problems.

Meanwhile, in Ward 6, incumbent councillor Mark Grimes was re-elected in 2014 with 43.6 percent of the vote. Grimes was challenged by community leader Russ Ford (who got 34.1 percent of the vote) and former Toronto Police spokesperson Tony Vella (who got 10.5 percent of the vote). Russ Ford had a strong campaign, but Grimes’ incumbency, and John Tory’s late endorsement and robocalls, gave the sitting councillor the advantage.

During the last term of council, both Di Ciano and Grimes came under increasing scrutiny by the press and the Ontario Provincial Police. Both councillors backed a controversial residential development adjoining GO Transit’s Willowbrook yards and maintenance centre despite Metrolinx’s objections.

Under mayors Ford and Tory, Mark Grimes was the appointed chair of Exhibition Place, the board that controls the city-owned waterfront land where the Canadian National Exhibition is held. The CNE, a separate entity, is a tenant of Exhibition Place. Other important tenants include a hotel, two convention centres (Beanfield Centre and Enercare Centre), Medieval Times, and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment. Three MLSE teams — the Toronto Argonauts, Toronto FC, and the Marlies play at Exhibition Place, while the Raptors (also a MLSE property) have their training centre on the lands. Exhibition Place is also the home of Muzik, a controversial nightclub supported by Grimes and fellow councillor Giorgio Mammoliti.

Workers represented by the International Association of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) had been locked out by Exhibition Place for months. Last week, IATSE members, who provide technical and staging work for all Exhibition Place events and venues, agreed to a long-overdue contract from the city and are finally going back to work. The union had to take concessions, and claims the lockout was a “union-busting attempt.”

Councillor Di Ciano was found to have close ties to that development’s proponent, Dunpar Homes. Meanwhile, Councillor Grimes got into trouble for improperly promoting specific condominium developments in his ward, including the defunct “On the GO Condos” at Mimico Station.

Di Ciano also became notable as council’s most vocal opponent of ranked ballots, getting city council to vote against adopting them in future elections. Di Ciano also strongly opposed the new 47 ward boundaries, decided after years of planning and consultation; he became a major cheerleader for Doug Ford’s Bill 5.

In the end, though, Councillor Di Ciano decided not to run for re-election. His executive assistant, Mary Campbell, registered in Ward 5 instead. Also running in Ward 5 was Pamela Gough, a long-time local Toronto District School Board trustee. As a school trustee, Gough was especially concerned with traffic and road safety.

In Ward 6, challengers to Mark Grimes included Amber Morley and Iain Davis. Morley, like Russ Ford, worked at the LAMP Community Heath Centre and in Ward 4 Councillor John Campbell’s office. Iain Davis is the son of former TDSB chair Bruce Davis; he ran on a centre-right platform.

With the 25 wards confirmed, Grimes, Morley, Gough, and Davis re-registered in Ward 3. Mary Campbell withdrew her nomination, perhaps to avoid a vote split with Grimes.

The Toronto Star, Progress Toronto and the Toronto and District Labour Council backed Morley. Not only did Morley offer the most progressive platform, she also had the best chance of defeating Grimes. It would have been great to see another younger woman of colour elected to a council that is disproportionately white and male.

But yet again, Mayor Tory endorsed Grimes and robocalled on his behalf, citing Grimes’ “determination and experience”. It didn’t matter that Grimes was called out by Toronto’s integrity commissioner or that he was under OPP investigation. It was clear that Tory wanted Grimes back on council.

 

Poll-level map of the council race results for Ward 3Thanks partly to Tory’s support, Grimes won, with 40.9 percent of the vote. Morley came in second with 27.2 percent and Gough placed third, with 18.1 percent. Grimes placed first in both former Wards 5 and 6, though with a larger percentage of the vote in the old Ward 5, south of the Gardiner Expressway.

Morley did the best in the southern most part of Ward 3, south of the GO Transit railway in New Toronto and Mimico. She also did well in Humber Bay Shores and the Six Points area. Grimes did best in Alderwood and in polls in the exclusive Palace Pier condos at the mouth of the Humber River. Pamela Gough placed first in six polls, all near the Bloor Street and Royal York Road intersection.

On November 15, 2018, less than a month after the election, the OPP charged Di Ciano and Grimes with campaign finance violations. It is alleged that Grimes and Di Ciano benefited from research and polling work paid for by Dunpar during the 2014 election. If convicted, Di Ciano and Grimes could face a fine up to $25,000, and could also be forced from office or barred from running in future municipal elections.

What’s puzzling is why Tory endorsed Grimes, whose reputation was well known among City Hall watchers. Perhaps it had something to do with the Exhibition Place lockout. Or maybe Tory just wanted a reliable right-wing vote on a smaller council.

Meanwhile, I hope Amber Morley considers another run. She was a great candidate and was able to prove her determination. With name recognition from her first run, she has a strong chance to finally take out Mark Grimes in 2022.

Ward 3 Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Candidate Total votes Percentage
Svitlana Burlakova 1218 3.0
Iain Davis 2722 6.7
Pamela Gough 7301 18.1
Mark Grimes 16527 40.9
Robert Gunnyon 167 0.4
Michael Julihen 320 0.8
Loomans Michael 199 0.5
Amber Morley 10985 27.2
Peggy Moulder 575 1.4
Patrizia Nigro 394 1.0
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Mapping the council race in Ward 12 – Toronto-St. Paul’s

As mentioned in my last post, Bill 5, introduced by Premier Doug Ford in the middle of Toronto’s municipal election campaign, had a silver lining: it finally rid Toronto City Council of its greatest embarrassment, Giorgio Mammoliti. Otherwise, though, it had terrible effects. It removed the opportunity for many new voices to get elected to City Council by reducing the number of seats from 47 to just 25. In Ward 12, voters had a very difficult decision to make, as Josh Matlow and Joe Mihevc found themselves running against each other. Previously, both councillors expected to cruise to victory; neither were facing any prominent challengers under the 47-ward model.

Joe Mihevc, allied with the New Democratic Party, is one of the best arguments against council term limits. Representing old Ward 21, Mihevc has been a very popular and effective community representative. Ward 21 includes wealthy neighbourhoods such as Cedarvale, Wychwood Park, and the west half of Forest Hill. It also includes more modest neighbourhoods north of St. Clair Avenue and west of Bathurst Street. Two of Mihevc’s signature accomplishments were championing the St. Clair Avenue streetcar right-of-way and the Wychwood Barns project, where a former TTC streetcar yard was transformed into a wonderful park, art space, and community hub.

Josh Matlow, a Liberal, was elected to City Council in 2010 in old Ward 22. Matlow’s ward includes much of Toronto’s midtown area, affluent neighbourhoods such as Deer Park, Rathnally, and the eastern half of Forest Hill, as well as highrise apartments near Yonge and Eglinton and along Davisville Avenue. Matlow started his first term as an idealistic centrist, but made his mark as a sharp and informed critic of Rob Ford and John Tory, especially the Scarborough Subway.

Both Mihevc and Matlow became well-known for their involvement in local and city-wide issues. Mihevc has been very active in public health and anti-poverty matters. While Matlow is well-known for pushing for smarter transit infrastructure, he was also busy managing growth in his ward, especially in the Yonge-Eglinton area. Both have been very active in their wards, working on community improvements which make it so unfortunate that only one of the two could be re-elected.

Though Joe Mihevc is well to the political left of John Tory, the mayor backed Mihevc. This wasn’t surprising given the amount of bad blood between Tory and Josh Matlow. The mayor robocalled for Mihevc, like he did for Brad Bradford in Ward 19, and Mark Grimes in Ward 3.

But the voters in new Ward 8 chose Josh Matlow by a comfortable margin. Matlow got 51.6 percent of the vote to Mihevc’s 42.1 percent. The other four candidates shared the remaining 6.3 percent of the vote. This was one council race the mayor couldn’t influence.

2018-election-w12

This result had more to do with geography than anything else. Both Mihevc and Matlow lost parts of their old wards due to the new boundaries — the part of Ward 22 east of Mount Pleasant Road moved to Ward 15, while the part of old Ward 21 north of Eglinton Avenue went to Ward 8. Mihevc was able to count on the support of 61 percent of the voters in former Ward 21, made up of 27 polls. Mihevc also came first in five of the six polls located in former Ward 15, west of Oakwood Avenue. Matlow placed first in only five of the 33 polls west of Oakwood Avenue, and tied with Mihevc in two.

But there were 39 polls in former Ward 22, Matlow’s turf, where he remained especially popular, getting 66.4 percent of the vote there, and placing first in every poll. The advance poll heavily favoured Matlow as well.

Doug Ford’s late-stage meddling made the 2018 election incredibly unfair, especially as candidates scrambled late to run in much larger wards. Matlow won because the new Ward 8 had a larger electorate from his old ward, rather than Mihevc’s. This wasn’t fair. But Bill 5 wasn’t meant to be fair.

But by sending Josh Matlow back to City Council, instead of a more conciliatory Joe Mihevc, John Tory won’t have such an easy time getting his agenda through.

Ward 12 Toronto-St. Paul’s
Candidate Total votes Percentage
Elizabeth Cook 908 2.3
Artur Langu 290 0.7
Ian Lipton 930 2.4
Josh Matlow 20371 51.6
Joe Mihevc 16634 42.1
Bob Murphy 342 0.9

Note: This post is revised from a previous version to better describe some of the community work done by city councillors. 

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Mapping the council race in Ward 7, Humber River-Black Creek

On October 22, 2018, Giorgio Mammoliti was finally removed from Toronto City Council. That was one of the few highlights in a demoralizing municipal election. When Premier Doug Ford reduced the size of council from 47 to 25 seats in the middle of the election campaign, he undermined local democracy and the city’s authority to conduct fair elections. Bill 5 shut out many great candidates, especially young and diverse voices. Despite a last-minute challenge from former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat, John Tory cruised to an easy win for a second term as mayor.

The new larger wards saw many races where two incumbents ran against each other, including allies Paula Fletcher and Mary Fragedakis in Toronto-Danforth, and Josh Matlow and Joe Mihevc in Toronto-St. Paul’s. Sometimes it meant choosing between two good representatives (or a promising challenger), but in Ward 7, it meant finally getting rid of City Hall’s greatest embarrassment.

Under the approved 47-ward model, there were four candidates in Ward 7, represented for many years by Giorgio Mammoliti. Nick Di Nizio, who came in second place in 2014, registered to run again in 2018. They were joined by two young candidates of colour: TDSB trustee Tiffany Ford, and Keegan Henry-Mathieu. Henry-Mathieu ran in 2014, placing sixth.

In nearby Ward 8 (both wards had similar boundaries to the old Wards 7 and 8), incumbent Anthony Perruzza was up against seven other candidates. The most prominent challenger was Deanna Sgro, daughter of Liberal MP Judy Sgro. Deanna Sgro ran for the provincial Liberals in the June election, but lost to the NDP’s Tom Rakocevic. Sgro also carried some baggage: she was reprimanded by the Law Society of Upper Canada for professional misconduct at her debt collection firm.

Wards 7 and 8 (and a small part of Ward 9, represented by Maria Augimeri) were combined under Bill 5 to create a new Ward 7, with the same boundaries as the provincial and federal riding of Humber River-Black Creek. The ward includes York University and Black Creek Pioneer Village, as well as the Jane-Finch neighbourhood and large industrial areas west of Highway 400.

With the new ward boundaries, Anthony Perruzza became the front-runner against Giorgio Mammoliti. Several candidates, including Di Nizio and Henry-Mathieu, withdrew from the race.

Perruzza won Ward 7 with the support of 36.8 percent of the electorate, and he got 2,711 more votes than Mammoliti, who came in second place with 24.8 percent. They were followed by Sgro, who got 19.9 percent of the vote, and Ford, with 14.1 percent. There were four other candidates, none of whom got more than two percent of the total vote.

2018 Election - W7

In the 22 election-day polls within the old Ward 7, Mammoliti’s old turf, he was still able to come in first place, taking 30.3 percent of the vote. Perruzza came in second place, with 28.8 percent, followed by Sgro with 24.3 percent, and Tiffany Ford at 13.1 percent. Despite Mammoliti’s notoriety, he still had the support of a plurality of his constituents.

Anthony Perruzza was able to win thanks to voters in his old Ward 8. Perruzza was the first choice in each of those 30 polls, and took 48.7 percent of the vote, followed by Ford with 19.9 percent. Mammoliti came in third, with 15.8 percent and Sgro with 14.0 percent.

Had Bill 5 not been introduced, there would have been a very good chance that Mammoliti would have been returned to Toronto City Council. If there was any good that came out of Doug Ford’s meddling, it was this.

Ward 7 Humber River-Black Creek
Candidate Total votes Percentage
Kristy-Ann Charles 147 0.6
Amanda Coombs 445 2.0
Tiffany Ford 3187 14.1
Winston La Rose 247 1.1
Giorgio Mammoliti 5625 24.8
Anthony Perruzza 8336 36.8
Deanna Sgro 4512 19.9
Thomas Kerry-Ann 153 0.7
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Mapping the council race in Ward 8, Eglinton-Lawrence

Ward 8, Eglinton-Lawrence, was one of only two Toronto city council races in which an incumbent councillor was defeated by a non-incumbent challenger (the other being Ward 25). In the 2018 municipal election, Mike Colle defeated Christin Carmichael Greb and eight other candidates. It wasn’t a surprising win, given the name recognition Mike Colle, and his son, Josh Colle, have in the ward, but the dynamics were interesting, if not a bit discouraging.

Ward 8, Eglinton-Lawrence, encompasses three former ward boundaries: the entirety of old Ward 16, represented by Councillor Carmichael Greb, most of old Ward 15, represented by centrist and TTC chair Josh Colle, and a small portion of old Ward 21, represented by Joe Mihevc.

In 2014, Carmichael Greb won with only 17.4 percent of the vote in old Ward 16, whose boundaries were between Yonge and Bathurst Streets, north to Highway 401 and south to Eglinton Avenue. In a race featuring 16 candidates, Carmichael Greb was helped by her conservative credentials (she is the daughter of former Conservative MP John Carmichael) and by John Tory’s endorsement and robocalls. She registered to run again in 2018, first under the approved 47-ward model, then in the new 25-ward model imposed by the province. Dyanoosh Youssefi, who came in third in 2014, also registered. Other challengers included Jennifer Arp, a TDSB trustee, and Beth Levy, a teacher and assistant to local Liberal MP Marco Mendicino.

With several strong challengers against her, it looked likely that Councillor Carmichael Greb, who didn’t have a reputation as a responsive or hard-working representative, would be re-elected in the new 47-ward model.

Josh Colle was also seeking re-election under the 47-ward model in the new Ward 13, which extended west from Bathurst Street west to the GO Transit Barrie Line. In 2014, Colle won re-election with 75.2 percent of the vote. In 2018, Colle’s most prominent challenger in Ward 13 was going to be Rocco Achampong. Achampong, a Conservative and a respected lawyer, ran for mayor in 2010.

But just two days before nominations were set to close, on Wednesday, July 25, Josh Colle suddenly announced that he was retiring from municipal politics, instead looking to work in the private sector. His father, 73-year old Mike Colle, would run instead. The elder Colle was Liberal MPP for Eglinton-Lawrence from 1995 through 2018, when he was defeated by the Ontario PCs. Before 1995, Colle was a North York and Metro councillor. The sudden, last minute father-son swap was a surprising and a rather cynical move. But that wasn’t the only shock that week.

On Friday July 27, the same day as deadline for council nominations, the provincial government announced Bill 5, reducing the number of Toronto city councillors from the approved 47 to just 25. Achampong was one of the first to challenge Bill 5 in court, but unfortunately, he and the other applicants were not successful. Achampong and six other candidates who signed up under the 47-ward council chose not to run in the new Ward 8 and withdrew their nominations.

Poll-level results of the municipal election for Ward 8

Unsurprisingly, Mike Colle won, with 41.3 percent of the vote. He had the advantage of name recognition as the former MPP for Eglinton-Lawrence, as well as his son’s record as councillor for the western half of the new ward. Christin Carmichael Greb ran into controversy during the final days of the campaign, declaring herself the “John Tory candidate” despite not netting an endorsement in 2018. Despite coming in a distant second, she increased her vote share from 2014, netting 21.7 percent of all ballots cast in Ward 8.

Had the 47-ward model prevailed, it’s quite likely Carmichael Greb would have won despite her unimpressive first term. Incumbency and name recognition form a huge advantage in municipal elections, especially without political parties or ranked ballots. But Mike Colle was able to get the most votes even in old Ward 16 — 31.7 percent to Carmichael Greb’s 25.6 percent.

Mike Colle’s win is unique to Toronto municipal politics. There are many current or past city councillors who followed their parents on city council — including Mike Layton, Joe Cressy, and Stephen Holyday, who were re-elected in 2018 — but Mike Colle might be the first to follow in his son’s footsteps.

Ward 8 Eglinton-Lawrence
Candidate Total votes Percentage
Jennifer Arp 2404 7.1
Christin Carmichael Greb 7395 21.7
Mike Colle 14094 41.3
Darren Dunlop 210 0.6
Lauralyn Johnston 992 2.9
Beth Levy 3122 9.2
Randall Pancer 134 0.4
Josh Pede 420 1.2
Peter Tijiri 72 0.2
Dyanoosh Youssefi 5253 15.4

 

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Mapping the council race in Ward 19, Beaches-East York

Ward 19 Beaches-East York was one of the closest races in Toronto’s 2018 municipal election. It was only one of two “open” wards out of 25 — meaning no incumbent councillor was seeking re-election.

Earlier this year, Councillor Janet Davis (old Ward 31) and Mary-Margaret McMahon (old Ward 32) announced that they were not running again for Council. Davis, a prominent member of council’s left wing, endorsed Diane Dyson, a community activist, as a candidate for Ward 35, which had similar boundaries to Davis’ ward. There were ten other candidates, including David Del Grande, a product manager and former provincial Green Party candidate, and musician Brenda MacDonald, who ran against Davis in the last two elections.

Meanwhile McMahon, a centrist, endorsed Brad Bradford, a city staffer who worked for the office of the Chief Planner at City Hall. There were eleven candidates running in Ward 37 (mostly congruent with old Ward 32), including Matthew Kellway, the former NDP MP for Beaches-East York, Joshua Makuch, a management consultant and a Canadian Forces veteran who served in Afghanistan, and Valérie Maltais, an environmental scientist.

Like so many races across the city, Doug Ford’s Bill 5 changed the dynamics completely. The two wards were merged into Ward 19. Five candidates withdrew from the tougher race, but there were still 16 candidates having to run in a much larger area than they planned for.

Councillor Janet Davis switched her allegiance from Diane Dyson to fellow New Democrat Matthew Kellway. Brad Bradford was endorsed by both Jennifer Keesmaat, his former boss, and John Tory, who likely wanted a more centrist councillor in Ward 19 than Kellway. It became a two-way race, with Tory and McMahon campaigning hard for Bradford, with Kellway having the support of Davis and fellow NDP politicians and activists. Kellway had the support of the Toronto Star’s editorial board, while Bradford had the endorsement of the Toronto Sun.

In the end, Brad Bradford won with 38.6 percent of the vote, while Kellway took 37.8 percent, with a difference of just 288 votes. Joshua Makuch came in a distant third, with 6.2 percent of the vote, and Diane Dyson placed fourth.

Kellway came in first place in the advance polls. But on election day, Bradford placed first in 33 polls, while Kellway placed first in 28 polls. Brenda MacDonald came first in Poll 45. Only five votes were cast in Poll 20, which was a five-way tie.

2018 Election - W19

Kellway’s best results were north of Danforth Avenue, especially in the east, along Lumsden Avenue and Dawes Road. This area encompasses several Toronto Community Housing buildings and the lower-income Crescent Town neighbourhood. The support and organization from outgoing councillor Janet Davis probably helped, as did Kellway’s record as NDP MP. Had Toronto stayed with the 47 wards, it’s very likely that Diane Dyson would won in Ward 35, given Davis’ previous endorsement. Either way, the support of Mary Margaret McMahon and John Tory would have seen Brad Bradford win in Ward 37. Tory now has a new ally on council.

The south half of Ward 19 is more affluent and less diverse than the area north of Danforth Avenue. Old Ward 31, north of Danforth Avenue and represented by Davis, had a 2016 median household income of $61,575. Old Ward 32, south of Danforth Avenue and represented by McMahon, had a 2016 median household income of $84,445. In the north half, 42.1 percent of the population identifies as a visible minority, compared to 24.3 south of The Danforth.

Ward 19 Beaches-East York
Candidate Total votes Percentage
Brad Bradford 14286 38.6
Norval Bryant 89 0.2
Paul Bura 288 0.8
Dragan Cimesa 77 0.2
David Del Grande 283 0.8
Diane Dyson 1612 4.4
Matthew Kellway 13998 37.8
Donald Lamoreux 141 0.4
Brenda MacDonald 601 1.6
Joshua Makuch 2315 6.2
Valérie Maltais 929 2.5
Frank Marra 142 0.4
Paul Murton 74 0.2
Morley Rosenberg 248 0.7
Adam Smith 708 1.9
Veronica Stephen 1257 3.4
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Mapping the council race in Ward 25, Scarborough-Rouge Park

2018-election-w25-e1541864142688

I start my analysis of the 25 council races with Ward 25, Scarborough–Rouge Park, where Neethan Shan, the incumbent councillor for old Ward 42, lost in a very tight race to Jennifer McKelvie, who was elected to public office for the first time. Both candidates originally ran in different areas under the approved 47 wards (Shan in Ward 45, McKelvie in Ward 47), but Bill 5, Premier Doug Ford’s legislation that reduced Toronto City Council to just 25 wards, changed everything.

Ward 25 was an interesting race for several reasons. It was one of only two contests in which an incumbent councillor lost to a non-incumbent challenger (the other was Ward 8 Eglinton–Lawrence, where Mike Colle defeated Christin Carmichael Greb). It was also the closest of the 25 council races. McKelvie won with 11,624 votes (40.2 percent), just 154 more votes than Shan. The win margin was just 0.53 percent. There were eleven candidates in total.

The new ward boundaries imposed by the provincial government likely helped McKelvie win. The western part of old Ward 42, areas where Shan would have enjoyed the incumbency advantage, shifted to new Ward 23. Meanwhile, almost the entirety of old Ward 44, where McKelvie made a strong showing in the 2014 election, was incorporated in the new ward. The map above shows that Shan came in first place in every poll that formerly in Ward 42, while McKelvie placed first in nearly every poll south of Highway 401.

Ward 25 Scarborough-Rouge Park
Candidate Total Votes Percentage
Amanda Cain 831 2.9
Paul Cookson 1897 6.6
Daniel Cubellis 527 1.8
Jasper Ghori 337 1.2
Reza Khoshdel 548 1.9
Cheryl Lewis-Thurab 638 2.2
Dave Madder 151 0.5
Jennifer McKelvie 11624 40.2
Christopher Riley 456 1.6
Neethan Shan 11470 39.7
Joseph Thomas 428 1.5

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