Sean Marshall

Tag: Ward 12

  • Mapping the council race in Ward 12 – Toronto-St. Paul’s

    As mentioned in my last post, Bill 5, introduced by Premier Doug Ford in the middle of Toronto’s municipal election campaign, had a silver lining: it finally rid Toronto City Council of its greatest embarrassment, Giorgio Mammoliti. Otherwise, though, it had terrible effects. It removed the opportunity for many new voices to get elected to City Council by reducing the number of seats from 47 to just 25. In Ward 12, voters had a very difficult decision to make, as Josh Matlow and Joe Mihevc found themselves running against each other. Previously, both councillors expected to cruise to victory; neither were facing any prominent challengers under the 47-ward model.

    Joe Mihevc, allied with the New Democratic Party, is one of the best arguments against council term limits. Representing old Ward 21, Mihevc has been a very popular and effective community representative. Ward 21 includes wealthy neighbourhoods such as Cedarvale, Wychwood Park, and the west half of Forest Hill. It also includes more modest neighbourhoods north of St. Clair Avenue and west of Bathurst Street. Two of Mihevc’s signature accomplishments were championing the St. Clair Avenue streetcar right-of-way and the Wychwood Barns project, where a former TTC streetcar yard was transformed into a wonderful park, art space, and community hub.

    Josh Matlow, a Liberal, was elected to City Council in 2010 in old Ward 22. Matlow’s ward includes much of Toronto’s midtown area, affluent neighbourhoods such as Deer Park, Rathnally, and the eastern half of Forest Hill, as well as highrise apartments near Yonge and Eglinton and along Davisville Avenue. Matlow started his first term as an idealistic centrist, but made his mark as a sharp and informed critic of Rob Ford and John Tory, especially the Scarborough Subway.

    Both Mihevc and Matlow became well-known for their involvement in local and city-wide issues. Mihevc has been very active in public health and anti-poverty matters. While Matlow is well-known for pushing for smarter transit infrastructure, he was also busy managing growth in his ward, especially in the Yonge-Eglinton area. Both have been very active in their wards, working on community improvements which make it so unfortunate that only one of the two could be re-elected.

    Though Joe Mihevc is well to the political left of John Tory, the mayor backed Mihevc. This wasn’t surprising given the amount of bad blood between Tory and Josh Matlow. The mayor robocalled for Mihevc, like he did for Brad Bradford in Ward 19, and Mark Grimes in Ward 3.

    But the voters in new Ward 8 chose Josh Matlow by a comfortable margin. Matlow got 51.6 percent of the vote to Mihevc’s 42.1 percent. The other four candidates shared the remaining 6.3 percent of the vote. This was one council race the mayor couldn’t influence.

    2018-election-w12

    This result had more to do with geography than anything else. Both Mihevc and Matlow lost parts of their old wards due to the new boundaries — the part of Ward 22 east of Mount Pleasant Road moved to Ward 15, while the part of old Ward 21 north of Eglinton Avenue went to Ward 8. Mihevc was able to count on the support of 61 percent of the voters in former Ward 21, made up of 27 polls. Mihevc also came first in five of the six polls located in former Ward 15, west of Oakwood Avenue. Matlow placed first in only five of the 33 polls west of Oakwood Avenue, and tied with Mihevc in two.

    But there were 39 polls in former Ward 22, Matlow’s turf, where he remained especially popular, getting 66.4 percent of the vote there, and placing first in every poll. The advance poll heavily favoured Matlow as well.

    Doug Ford’s late-stage meddling made the 2018 election incredibly unfair, especially as candidates scrambled late to run in much larger wards. Matlow won because the new Ward 8 had a larger electorate from his old ward, rather than Mihevc’s. This wasn’t fair. But Bill 5 wasn’t meant to be fair.

    But by sending Josh Matlow back to City Council, instead of a more conciliatory Joe Mihevc, John Tory won’t have such an easy time getting his agenda through.

    Ward 12 Toronto-St. Paul’s
    Candidate Total votes Percentage
    Elizabeth Cook 908 2.3
    Artur Langu 290 0.7
    Ian Lipton 930 2.4
    Josh Matlow 20371 51.6
    Joe Mihevc 16634 42.1
    Bob Murphy 342 0.9

    Note: This post is revised from a previous version to better describe some of the community work done by city councillors. 

  • Mapping the 2014 Toronto election: Wards 11 and 12

    Wards 11 and 12, York South-Weston, are located in the near northwest side of Toronto, stradding the former Cities of York and North York. Ward 11 includes the neighbourhoods of Weston, Pelmo Park, Mount Dennis, and Rockcliffe-Smythe. Thes outheast corner of the Ward 12 includes the former Toronto Stockyards and its associated industries; those lands are now mostly redeveloped into big-box retail and townhouse developments. Ward 12, east of Jane Street and the Metrolinx/Canadian Pacific rail corridor, includes the Rustic-Maple Leaf, Amesbury, Beechbrook, and Keelesdale neighbourhoods.  Compared to Toronto as a whole, both wards are relatively lower-income (the average household income in 2010 in Ward 11 was $61,883 in 2010; in Ward 12, it was $61,621); both wards are made up of a mix of housing types, from post-war subdivisions (many populated by older Italian and Portugese-Canadian families) and highrise residential towers.

    2014 Election - WARD 11 MayorPoll results of the mayoral race in Ward 11

    2014 Election - WARD 12 MayorPoll results of the mayoral race in Ward 12

    In the mayoral race, Doug Ford took both wards by a landslide; Ford got 56.6% of the vote in Ward 11 and 62.3% in Ward 12. John Tory and Olivia Chow came in a distant second and third place, respectively.

    Ford came in first place in all but five polls in York South-Weston. In Ward 11, Tory won four polls located at 240-270 Scarlett Road, the Lambton Square condominium towers. In Ward 12, Tory placed first in Poll 027, a seniors’ residence near the old Northwestern Hospital.

    The councillor in Ward 11 is former York mayor Frances Nunziata, who has sat on Toronto City Council since amalgamation. She was one of Mayor Rob Ford’s closest allies; she served as council speaker in the last term. As speaker, she had trouble keeping order on council. though newly elected mayor John Tory has since nominated her for the job. Only 19 of 44 councillors were willing to challenge the nomination, so for now, she remains in her current role.

    In the last election, Frances Nunziata won with 71.3% of the vote. Only two other candidates ran: Jose Garcia (netting 17.4% of the vote) and Dory Chalhoub (who got 11.3%). I didn’t bother making a map for the council race in Ward 11 as Nunziata won every poll by a comfortable margin.

    On the other hand, the council race in Ward 12 was much more interesting. This was a bonafide four-way race between incumbent Frank Di Giorgio, returning challenger and former city staffer Nick Dominelli, former Liberal/Independent MP John Nunziata (Frances’ brother) and new challenger Lekan Olawoye, a Nigerian-Canadian immigrant and local community organizer.

    (Full disclosure: I met Lekan Olawoye and some of his campaign team at a local debate; I came away impressed. I contributed funds towards his campaign.)

    John Nunziata’s last-minute entry to the race (at about the same time that Rob Ford and Doug Ford traded places as mayoral candidate) shook things up. Olawoye found himself running against three Italian-Canadian candidates, all running to his right. Unfortunately (at least in my view), Di Giorgio won, but it was close. Only 238 votes separated the incumbent from Nunziata. Remarkably, all four candidates had the support of over 20 percent of the electorate. (It would be interesting to find out what the effect ranked ballots would have on such a close race.)

    2014 Election - WARD 12 CllrPoll results of the councillor race in Ward 12

    Olawoye won nine election day polls (more than Nunziata or Dominelli). Some of these polls, such as Poll 001 (which includes a large TCHC complex), are where Doug Ford did best in the mayoral race, similar to results seen in Ward 6. The polls that Olawoye won were mostly high-rise residental towers, including private rentals, co-operative homes, and TCHC properties. Di Giorgio and Dominelli did the best in the northeast, in the Maple Leaf/Rustic neighbourhoods.

    To repeat a point I made earlier, I am impressed to see great, young, passionate candidates in northwest Toronto who want to do better for this city. I strongly believe that we need more diversity on city council. I am inspired by people like Andray Domise, Idil Burale, Abukar and Olawoye. Happily, we will hear a lot more from these inspiring leaders in the years to come.