The second set of maps I posted on Twitter was the results for Ward 16, which had an interesting council race. In this post, I present poll results maps for both Wards 15 and 16; the two wards named. Eglinton-Lawrence. The name Eglinton-Lawrence comes from the federal/provincial riding that was split into two civic wards at Bathurst Street. This post covers both wards.
Bathurst Street represents an important east-west divide on the electoral map. It separates several affluent North Toronto neighbourhoods to the east (such as Lawrence Park) and relatively lower-income neighbourhoods to the west. In 2010, the average household income in Ward 15 was $71,529, slightly below the city’s average; in Ward 16, it was $175,528, the second highest in the city. Ward 15 contains the large Lawrence Heights TCHC housing development and has a larger proportion of immigrants than its eastern, wealthier, neighbour.
Tory won an astounding 74.8% of all votes cast in Ward 16. This was the highest ward-level result for Tory in the last election and the largest winning margin of any mayoral candidate. Olivia Chow came in a very distant second place with 13.0% of the vote, and Doug Ford placed third, taking only 10.6% of all votes cast. Only one poll, Poll 033, located in a TCHC building, thought differently and voted for Ford. On the other side of Bathurst, in Ward 15, Ford won a plurality of votes cast – 43.1% of the vote – and won 29 polls. Tory won mostly in polls on the eastern edge of the ward, closest to Bathurst Street, Ford won Lawrence Heights and every poll west of Dufferin Street.
Ward 16 was represented by three-term councillor and former TTC Chair Karen Stintz. She ran for mayor against Tory, Chow, Rob Ford, and David Soknacki before dropping out in August. Soknacki, also struggling to gain support and donations, dropped out not long after Stintz. Sixteen candidates ran for the open seat, including Stintz’s former assisstant J.P. Boutros, businesswoman Christin Carmichael Greb (the daughter of a Conservate MP in a neighbouring riding), and lawyers Adam Tanel and Dyanoosh Youssefi.
In the end, it was a tight race; Carmichael Greb prevailed, but she had the smallest margin of victory for a council seat in the last election (she won only by a 1.2% margin). Carmichael Greb, Tanel, Yousseffi and Boutros all had between 10 and 17 percent of the vote, with four candidates winning at least one poll. Originally, John Tory stated that he was not going to endorse council candidates, but he neded up supporting Carmichael Greb late in the campaign. This probably helped to put her over the top in a tight open race, though voters in the advance polls selected Adam Tanel. (Personally, I was rooting for J.P Boutros.)
However, in Ward 15, rookie councillor Josh Colle, himself the son of a provincial MPP, won 75.2% of the vote and came first in every poll. His nearest challenger, Chani Aryeh-Bain, won only 12.3% of all votes cast for city councillor.