Mapping the 2014 Toronto election: Wards 3 and 4

Ward 3 and Ward 4, Etobicoke Centre, were both interesting races to watch. Neither ward had an incumbent councillor running for re-election. Mayoral candidates Doug Ford and John Tory were both very competitive in each ward. Tory came first in Ward 3, while Ford came first in Ward 4; both wards showed clear geographic splits in their choice for mayor. Olivia Chow came in a very distant third in both wards. Ward 4 was interesting for another reason; though Rob and Doug Ford have taken turns representing Ward 2, they both live in Ward 4.

The incumbent in Ward 3, Peter Leon, was a caretaker councillor, appointed by council in 2013. When appointed, Leon promised that he would not run for election. The incumbent in Ward 4, Gloria Lindsay Luby, a moderate councillor and a Ford family foe, did not stand for re-election in 2014.

Ward3_Mayor
Poll results of the mayoral race in Ward 3

As already noted in a few suburban wards (such as Ward 10 and Ward 15), there’s a clear distinction between areas where Tory did well and where Ford was the most popular mayoral candidate.

In Ward 3, Doug Ford did best in polls in the north and northwest part of the ward, particularly in the high-rise residential towers and townhouse complexes that line Highway 427. Wealthier neighbourhoods such as Princess-Rosethorn and Markland Wood generally voted for Tory.

Ward4_MayorPoll results of the mayoral race in Ward 4

The same patterns can be found in Ward 4. Polls in affluent Edenbridge-Humber Valley neighbourhood voted for John Tory by wide margins, with one notable exception: Poll 028, Rob Ford’s home poll. Interestingly, mayoral candidate Doug Ford lost his own poll (Poll 027), he was the only top mayoral candidate to do so. Most polls north of Eglinton Avenue voted for Doug Ford by wide margins. Condominium towers, seniors’ residences, and high-end rental buildings (including Polls 015, 019, 020, 021, 022, 038) opted for Tory, while Ford did well in other rental highrises (such as Polls 003, 016, 023, 024, 036).

Ward 3 was represented by long-time municipal politician Doug Holyday. Holyday was first elected to municipal office in 1982 as an alderman on Etobicoke City Council; he was elected mayor of Etobicoke in 1994. Faced with amalgamation of Metropolitan Toronto, Holyday (like the last mayors of York, East York, and Scarborough) successfully ran for Toronto City Council. A staunch conservative, Holyday was appointed Deputy Mayor by Rob Ford. In 2013, he ran for, and won, a by-election in Etobicoke-Lakeshore for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, and resigned from council. Council appointed a caretaker councillor, Peter Leon, on the promise that Leon not stand for election.

(Doug Holyday was a MPP for less than a year; the Liberals took back Etobicoke-Lakeshore in June 12, 2014 provincial election; their candidate was fellow city councillor Peter Milczyn. Holyday defeated Milczyn in the 2013 by-election.)

Stephen Holyday, Doug’s son, won Ward 3 with 36.6% of the vote in a crowded field. Certainly name recognition played a role in this race. Annette Hutcheon, a financial services professional and community volunteer, came in a respectable second place, withh 23.2% of the vote. Fourth-place candidate George Bauk won a single poll, 021, by a wide margin.

2014 Election - WARD 3 Cllr
Poll results of the 2014 council race in Ward 3

John Campbell, former Toronto District School Board chair, won Ward 4. Interestingly the map looks very different from the Tory/Ford split of the mayoral vote.

In 2010, Lindsay Luby beat Campbell by only 309 votes, so Campbell enjoyed the advantages of strong name recognition and local organization. Campbell had strong support in areas that voted for Ford (such as the northwest corner, closest to Highway 401) and areas that voted for Tory, such as Polls 029, 031, and 034.

Lindsay Luby endorsed Neils Christensen, a realtor and leader of the Humber Valley Village Residents Association. The HVVRA was vocal in its opposition to redevelopment plans for the Humbertown Shopping Centre; his support, not surprisingly, was strongest close to the plaza (Polls 030, 032, and 033). Christensen came in second with 28.7% percent of the vote.

Angelo Carnevale came in a respectable third place, with 20.8 percent of the vote, while late-entry Chris Stockwell, a former Etobicoke councillor, and Progressive Conservative MPP for Etobicoke Centre, came in a distant fourth (9.2%) and won no polls.

Ward4_CllrPoll results of the 2014 council race in Ward 4

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