Sean Marshall

Category: Politics

  • What’s next for Downtown Brampton?

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    Boarded up houses on Elizabeth Street, Downtown Brampton

    Earlier this year, the provincial government announced the location of Ryerson University’s Brampton campus, a partnership with Sheridan College, to be built on the GO Station parking lot in Downtown Brampton. Meanwhile, Metrolinx quietly purchased several houses and office buildings south of the station for new GO Transit surface parking, replacing the spots that Ryerson will build upon.

    The merits of a satellite university campus are open to debate – some smaller satellite campuses have struggled to attract students and faculty and distinguish themselves. Brampton’s the planned campus site was, by far, the best one for both the City of Brampton and Ryerson University.

    But today, the Progressive Conservative provincial government, elected in June, cancelled three planned suburban post-secondary education campuses — the York University/Seneca College campus in Markham, the Wilfrid Laurier University/Conestoga College campus in Milton, and the Ryerson University/Sheridan College campus in Brampton.

    This announcement came only one day after the October 22 municipal elections. While Toronto elected a smaller 25-ward council and returned John Tory to the mayor’s office, the voters Brampton elected former Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown as mayor, narrowly defeating incumbent Linda Jeffrey. Brown had just moved to Brampton after his campaign for the elected Peel Region Chair was cancelled at the same time Brown’s successor as PC leader, Premier Doug Ford, imposed the new 25 ward structure on Toronto. We can only speculate if the animosity between Brown and Ford was a factor in this announcement. It’s more likely that the decision to cancel the three campuses was already made, with the announcement timed to take place after the municipal elections. In any case, mayor-elect Brown’s job has already become more interesting.

    Brampton’s satellite campus, which had a 2022 opening date, would have hosted 2,000 undergraduate students. Though this is tiny compared to Ryerson’ downtown campus, which 36,000 undergraduate students currently enrolled, it was the best possible site, adjacent to the GO station, several Brampton Transit routes, the Rose Theatre, and local shops and restaurants and recreation facilities. The school would have made use of the the planned Centre for Innovation, a proposed new central library to the corner of George and Nelson Streets.

    university map
    Map of the Ryerson University campus site, the Centre for Innovation, and other downtown buildings. From the City of Brampton website.

    The York University/Seneca College campus in Markham was also strategically located, on a site adjacent to Unionville GO Station, in the mixed-use Downtown Markham development. In contrast, the Milton site was in a greenfield far from transit links. It’s fair to say that I’m not too disappointed on Milton’s behalf.

    With Brampton’s campus dead, for now, there’s still the land on the south side of the station. Three homes are already knocked down, while two office buildings and several houses are boarded up, awaiting demolition.

    Will Downtown Brampton see nothing more than additional GO Transit surface parking now that the campus is cancelled? Or will a new opportunity come along?

    BramptonParkingLotThe existing GO Transit lot at Brampton Station, where the Ryerson University/Sheridan College campus was planned

  • The final days of a brutal municipal election

    IMG_8629Toronto’s municipal election will take place in a few days, on Monday, October 22. A few months ago, I was energized by the possibilities a 47 ward council would bring, with several open races where new voices could be elected. I was looking forward to seeing Dan Fox win on his second try in North York, after an impressive run in 2014 against long-time incumbent David Shiner. I was excited to see Tiffany Ford’s campaign take on Giorgio Mammoliti. Downtown, three new wards would make room for new faces like Chris Moise. Meanwhile, several incumbents, including Janet Davis, Mary-Margaret McMahon, and John Filion were planning to retire.

    The mayoral race was going to be a snooze, with John Tory sleepwalking his way to a second term but at least the council races would be interesting.

    So much for that.

    This municipal election is a sham. When Premier Doug Ford suddenly announced that he was going to introduce legislation to reduce Toronto’s council size from 47 to 25 — in the middle of the election campaign — it threw everything into chaos. Candidates who signed up to run in wards with a population of 50,000 to 60,000 were now forced to decide whether to run in a ward with nearly twice the population and against new opponents. Incumbents were now running against each other. Candidates had run in good faith, raised money, appealed to volunteers, and printed materials. It was no way to run a fair election.

    Though a court ruling overturning the result briefly provided relief and elation, Ford’s threat of using the Notwithstanding Clause to re-introduce legislation, and an appeal court’s ruling ensured that Toronto would run a compromised election with only 25 wards. Good people like Fox, Moise, Kyle Ashley, and Ausma Malik understandably dropped out of the council race. Others, like Tiffany Ford, Lanrick Bennett, Kevin Vuong, and Lekan Olawoye decided to continue what they started, even if it meant running in a tougher race. Meanwhile, John Filion jumped back into the race, while Josh Colle dropped out. His father, former MPP Mike Colle, jumped in.

    Doug Ford’s vindictive meddling sucked the energy out of the election; turnout at advance polls is down significantly from the last election despite the same number of days. About 124,000 voters cast a ballot in the advance polls held between Wednesday, October 10 and Sunday October 14, down from 161,000 who voted in advance in 2014.

    It’s depressing, but it’s still important to vote. There are lots of good people worth supporting even though it sometimes means picking one of several worthy candidates in a single ward. There is also the opportunity to remove some of Toronto’s worst councillors. And at least there’s a higher profile mayoral race, now with former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat challenging Tory.

    Here are several candidates worth supporting:

    Kristyn Wong-Tam: In her first two terms, Wong-Tam has proven to be one of council’s hardest workers, balancing constituency work with social activism. She represents the east side of Toronto’s downtown core, including the financial district, Moss Park, Yorkville, and Church-Wellesley Village, all fast-growing areas with lots of new development planned or underway.

    Under the old 47-ward model, Wong-Tam’s re-election would have been guaranteed, but now she is running against former provincial cabinet minister and mayoral candidate George Smitherman and appointed councillor Lucy Troisi. There are 19 candidates in total running in Ward 13, Toronto Centre.

    Troisi, who replaced the late Pam McConnell in 2017, was backed by council’s right wing and has proven to be a reliable Tory ally on council. Last summer, when Premier Doug Ford moved to cut Toronto Council to 25 wards, Troisi wasn’t willing to fight. Like all council appointees, Troisi promised not to run for election if appointed, but has since reneged on that promise. Meanwhile, George Smitherman, who lost to Rob Ford in 2010, has drawn controversy for running a negative campaign, including targeting an affordable housing complex on Sherbourne.

    Lekan Olawoye: Running in Ward 5, York South-Weston, Olawoye has proven to be a great community leader. In 2014, he ran in the old Ward 12 against Frank Di Giorgio, getting over 20% of the vote. I met Olawoye and his team after a mayoral debate in 2014, and I came away impressed. This time, Olawoye, an executive at MaRS, will be running against incumbents Di Giorgio and Frances Nunziata. Di Giorgio and Nunziata are both long-time conservative councillors and allies of Mayors Doug Ford and John Tory. Neither have represented the lower-income area effectively over their many years in office.

    Shelley Carroll: I was hoping that Shelley Carroll would be elected MPP in the new riding of Don Valley North. She resigned her council seat to run in the June election, leaving a vacancy on council. She is a progressive Liberal with lots of municipal experience, including a stint as former mayor David Miller’s budget chief. Carroll would have been a valuable member of the Liberal caucus, especially if the party needed to rebuild after the 2018 election. Happily, she will be running for council again in Ward 17, Don Valley North.

    There are also several awful councillors who might be turfed this year.

    Giorgio Mammoliti: First elected to municipal politics in 1995 after serving one term as MPP, Mammoliti has been best known for his attention-grabbing stunts, his outrageous statements, and his disregard for many of his constituents. He barely even shows up to work. Earlier this year, The Toronto Star reported that Mammoliti missed nearly half of all council votes in 2018, the worst record among all 44 councillors. During the 2014-2018 term, he missed 43.1 percent of all votes.

    Mammoliti has been in trouble several times for campaign finance violations, and has been under police investigation twice. Once for olding an illegal $80,000 fundraiser last year attended by lobbyists, developers and other businesspeople, the other for his involvement in a dubious land deal.

    Under the 47 ward model, there was a promising challenger who looked like she could beat City Council’s resident troll: Tiffany Ford. Ford, elected in 2014 as a TDSB trustee, is a local resident, entrepreneur, and community activist. She is still running in the 25 ward election, but is also now against left-leaning incumbent Anthony Perruzza, and Deanna Sgro, the daughter of Liberal MP Judy Sgro. Deanna ran into trouble with the Law Society of Upper Canada in 2013 for questionable debt collection practices. While Perruzza would certainly be an improvement to Mammoliti, I prefer Tiffany Ford.

    Mark Grimes: First elected to council in 2003, Grimes has been known for improperly backing developers in his ward, getting in trouble with the city’s integrity commissioner. Grimes has voted in favour of cuts to transit, the library system, and road safety improvements. Infrastructure has not kept up with massive growth in the Humber Bay Shores neighbourhood. In 2014, John Tory’s campaign supported Grimes’ re-election bid, despite the councillor’s poor record. But he’s been a reliable vote for the mayor on council. Grimes’ friend and ally Justin Di Ciano decided against running in 2018; the two would have otherwise faced off against each other.

    Luckily, Amber Morley, who has been very active in the community, working at a community health centre and at city hall, is running to beat Grimes. Pamela Gough, currently a TDSB trustee, would be another solid choice to replace Grimes.

    With Mammoliti and Grimes defeated, Toronto will be better off.

    Unfortunately, without ranked ballots, it is more difficult to defeat long time incumbents or even underperforming rookies such as Christin Carmichael Greb. In 2018, Carmichael Greb will be running in Ward 8, Eglinton Lawrence against Mike Colle, Dyanoosh Youssefi (who came in second third place to Carmichael Greb in 2014), and Beth Levy. In Ward 7, the anti-Mammoliti vote could be split between several candidates, which could allow him to win with less than 30% of ballots cast.

    The reduced wards has resulted in some very difficult and unfortunate choices as well. In Ward 12, Toronto-St. Paul’s, long-time progressive councillor Joe Mihevc is facing off against centrist Josh Matlow, both great councillors despite their differences. Mayor Tory endorsed Mihevc, probably because Matlow has been Tory’s harshest critic on council, largely because of the Scarborough subway extension. Either councillor, each very hard working and attentive to their constituents, will be missed. Another difficult decision is in Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth, where incumbents Paula Fletcher and Mary Fragedakis are running against each other, with worthy challengers such as Lanrick Bennett having to compete for attention and votes.

    This election has felt anti-climatic thanks to Doug Ford’s meddling. Many good people were shut out of the election, or have a much greater challenge running in a 25 ward election. But I remain inspired by some of the people who decided to continue to run, and at least there are worthy people — veterans and fresh faces — worth voting for on Monday October 22.

    Correction: Dyanoosh Youssefi came in third, not second place in Ward 16 in 2014. 

  • Mapping the 2018 candidates for Toronto City Council, Bill 5 edition (updated)

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    Toronto City Council voting on a legal challenge to Bill 5, August 20, 2018

    September 21 update: nominations are now closed, and I updated the map. Councillor Cesar Palacio dropped out in Davenport; this practically ensures that fellow incumbent Ana Bailao will be re-elected. There are 19 candidates in Toronto Centre, where popular incumbent Kristyn Wong-Tam is facing former mayoral candidate and provincial minister George Smitherman and appointed councillor Lucy Troisi.

    I’ll add a proper update later this weekend.

    September 19 update: the Ontario Court of Appeal ruled in the province’s favour today, issuing a stay of the September 10 Ontario Superior Court ruling against Bill 5. So with just over a month before election day, October 22, there’s now certainty that the 25 wards imposed by a vindictive Premier Ford will be used.

    That puts out a lot of good candidates looking to run in the 47-ward structure. Candidates Dan Fox in North York, and Chris Moise and Ausma Malik downtown, will not run. This is unfortunate and very disappointing.

    According to city hall reporter Arianne Robinson, incumbent councillors Paula Fletcher and Mary Fragedakis will run against each other in Toronto-Danforth.

    Without the City of Toronto’s online list of candidates live, I haven’t been able to make authoritative updates to the 25-ward map of candidates, but I have been trying to keep up with the news. Once the city’s list is live, I’ll make a definitive update.

    September 6 update: Councillor John Filion, who previously announced his retirement from municipal politics, registered to run in Ward 18 – Willowdale in the new 25 ward election. He felt his registration was necessary to prevent a non-progressive candidate from running (possibly David Shiner) and winning against relatively unknown candidates. It’s a terribly unfortunate result of going to 25 wards from 47 — it shuts out many fresh new faces and favours incumbents and other politicians with strong name recognition.

    Because of rapid population growth in the North Yonge corridor, Filion’s North York ward was essentially being split into two. Filion had endorsed his executive assistant, Markus O’Brien Fehr for the Ward 28 council seat, and Lily Cheng on Ward 29. If the challenge to Bill 5 is successful, and the 47 wards are restored for the 2018 election, Filion will not run.

    In other developments, the first battle between two progressive-leaning incumbents under the 25 ward model has emerged in Ward 12 – Toronto-St. Paul’s. Josh Matlow, an outspoken critic of John Tory’s transit plans, is running against longtime incumbent Joe Mihevc. Matlow is affiliated with the Liberals, while Mihevc is aligned with the NDP.

    There are now nine wards in which two sitting councillors are running against each other.

    I have updated the 25 ward map below.

    Bill 5, the so-called “Better Local Government Act, 2018,” was passed by the Ontario Legislature on August 14. This legislation reduces the number of council seats from the 47 wards approved by City Council to just 25, despite three years of study by independent experts and several rounds of public consultations. Passed in just over two weeks from the Premier Doug Ford’s surprise announcement on July 27 — the same day nominations for city council were scheduled to close — Bill 5 disrupted the municipal election campaign already in progress. Two hundred and ninety-two candidates had registered to run in one of the approved 47 wards.

    Bill 5 is vindictive, grossly unfair, and sets a bad precedent for provincial meddling in municipal affairs. It only targets the City of Toronto, which rejected Doug Ford’s late run for mayor in 2014, and delivers a blow to hundreds of candidates that registered to run in good faith. But legally, the City of Toronto must follow the province’s edict and elect only 25 councillors with wards based on the current provincial riding boundaries.

    Before Bill 5 was announced, there was an excellent chance for renewal at Toronto City Hall. Councillors Janet Davis, John Filion, and Mary-Margaret McMahon announced their retirements, while Shelley Carroll and Chin Lee resigned to run in the June 2018 provincial election. Councillors Ron Moeser and Pam McConnell died in office, replaced by appointees who promised not to stand for election (though Lucy Trosi later broke this promise). Councillor Josh Colle announced that he, too, was not going to run for re-election, but his father, defeated MPP and former councillor Mike Colle, would run instead. Meanwhile, Justin Di Ciano and David Shiner never registered.

    With three new wards, this meant that there were up to thirteen open races without an established incumbent. With only 25 wards, all but two wards are guaranteed to have at least one incumbent running for re-election, and at least ten wards with two incumbents running against each other.

    On Monday, August 19, nominations opened for any candidate wishing to run in one of the 25 wards. Nominations will close at 2:00 PM on September 14, just over five weeks before election day on October 22. Council candidates who registered under the 47 ward system or the 25 ward system may also withdraw by that date.

    There remains a faint hope that a court case, scheduled to be held on Friday August 31 will delay or overturn the provincial legislation, allowing the planned 47-ward election to go ahead.

    I expect that many candidates, especially progressive incumbents and challengers not eager to face off against each other, will wait until then to decide. But sadly, it means that great people like Chris Moise, who registered to run in Ward 25, will withdraw from the race.

    I will be maintaining and updating a Google map of the 25 ward races, similar to my 47-ward map. This new map appears below.

    As of Tuesday, August 28, there are eight wards in which two incumbents are running against each other. For example in Ward 1, Etobicoke North, Ford ally Vincent Crisanti will be running against Michael Ford, nephew of late mayor Rob Ford and Premier Doug Ford.

    But downtown, no incumbent councillors or high-profile candidates have registered under the new boundaries. I suspect they, like many of us, are waiting to find out what will happen on August 31, and that if the 25 wards go ahead, we will lose some promising new choices for city council.

  • How do you solve a problem like Mammoliti?

    Giorgio Mammoliti, long-time Toronto City Council, is a great poster child for what’s wrong with municipal politics. Arrogant and obnoxous, Councillor Mammoliti has made a name for himself by flouting council rules and election laws, by demeaning his constituents, picking fights with other members of council, and pursuing media attention with crass stunts and outrageous comments. Toronto would be a far better place without him at City Hall. His 23 years in municipal office have made him a convincing argument in favour of term limits, but I don’t agree that it’s the best way of getting rid of troublesome politicians.

    Mammoliti has been in municipal office since 1995, when he was elected to North York City Council. Before that, he was elected an MPP for Yorkview as a member of the provincial NDP. He is well-known for his socially conservative views against LGBT rights, social housing, youth recreation, and. In 1994, he voted in opposition to his party in the provincial legislature against allowing same-sex couples spousal insurance benefits.

    At city hall, his attention-grabbing antics have made him well-known. In 1999, he ripped off his shirt in front of news cameras to protest a decision permitting a clothing-optional section of beach on the Toronto Islands. In 2014, Mammoliti offensively called Parkdale, a lower-income neighbourhood, a “pedophile district.”

    Even though the Jane-Finch area, which is partially represented by Mammoliti, has a high proportion of visible minorities, high rates of poverty and underemployment, and poor transit access, Mammoliti has undermined rather than improved things for the community. He strongly opposes the Finch West LRT project that will provide an improved connection to the subway at Keele Street and Humber College. He has called residents of local community housing developments “cockroaches” in interviews for the Toronto Sun and alt-right Rebel Media. In a recent re-election advertisement, he posed in front of a nearby TCHC development with a sledgehammer in hand; the text of the ad read “saving our community begins with knocking down social housing. You deserve better!”

    This week, the Toronto Star reported that Mammoliti missed nearly half of all council votes in 2018, the worst record among all 44 councillors. During the 2014-2018 term, he missed 43.1 percent of all votes.

    The Ontario Provincial Police is investigating a failed Toronto Parking Authority land  deal in Ward 7 that Mammoliti had an involvement in. Allegedly, the councillor threatened a senior city staffer to recommend that the sale go ahead in a report to council. Auditors determined that the five acre site at Finch Avenue and Arrow Road was overvalued by $2.63 million. Mammoliti was previously interested in erecting a giant flagpole on that site.

    It’s not the first time he’s been under police investigation. In 2013, he held a $5000-a-table fundraiser in Vaughan, despite rules forbidding raising funds outside of election campaigns. Several prominent lobbyists were in attendance at the event, which raised $80,000. In 2014, Council docked him three months’ pay, the strictest penalty available.

    The people of northwest Toronto deserve much better than Giorgio Mammoliti. But one solution championed by some political observers — term limits — isn’t the right one, even if it would finally remove such a toxic member of council.

    Last month, Spacing’s John Lorinc argued that term limits would be “…the magic bullet reform that would blow open local government to new voices.” While term limits might be an easy way to get rid of Giorgio Mammoliti, it wouldn’t fully solve the incumbency advantage. Instead term limits would remove some of Council’s brightest and hardest working members, without guaranteeing a more diverse council with fresh new voices.

    Name recognition does not only come from years of incumbency, it may also come from a famous family name and political connections. Many “new voices” elected to city council when an incumbent chooses not to run for re-election are councillors’ constituency assistants, often given access to contact lists and the organization built up over the years. Or they’re politicians previously elected from other levels of government. Or they’re the sons, daughters, spouses, or in one case, the nephew, of a well-known public figure.

    Councillors Josh Colle, Joe Cressy, Stephen Holyday, Mike Layton, and David Shiner are the sons of previous municipal politicians. Councillor Cristin Carmicahel Greb is the daughter of former Conservative MP John Carmichael, Frances Nunziata’s brother John was a Liberal MP in the 1980s and 1990s, and Councillor Michelle Holland is married to former Liberal MPP Lorenzo Berardinetti, and is running for re-election as Michelle Holland-Berardinetti.

    And there’s the Ford family.

    In September 2014, Rob Ford, citing his poor health, announced that he was no longer running for mayor. His brother Doug, who was at that point councillor for Ward 2, but was not running for re-election,would run for mayor in Rob’s place. Rob and Doug’s nephew, Michael Ford, who was running for councilor, stepped aside for Rob and ran for trustee instead. Michael Ford changed his last name from Stirpe (his father’s surname) in February 2014 to take advantage of the famous Ford name.

    After Rob died, Michael Ford ran in the Ward 2 by-election and won by an easy margin. And Doug Ford, taking advantage of the folksy populist image his brother Rob fostered, ran for the leadership of the Ontario PCs and became premier in 2018. Doug Ford’s father, Doug Ford Sr., was an Ontario PC MPP from 1995 to 1999.

    On July 25, the week that nominations were scheduled to close (and two days before Premier Doug Ford announced his rushed and vindictive plan to cut council to 25 seats), Councillor Josh Colle (who was first elected in 2010 and served just two terms) announced that he was not going to run for re-election in his North York ward. But his father, Mike Colle, recently defeated as a Liberal MPP, would run instead. Term limits would not have stopped father and son from swapping places every eight or twelve years.

    While term limits would prevent a Norm Kelly, Frances Nunziata, or Giorgio Mammoliti from spending decades on council, it would also stop popular and well-regarded representatives such as Joe Mihevc from continuing to serve their communities. Institutional memory would also be lost on Council. Councillors Gord Perks, Paula Fletcher, Michael Thompson, Paul Ainslie, and many others would also be required to leave office this year if a three-term limit were imposed. Gord Perks’ knowledge of council procedure and his defense of the Parkdale neighbourhood would be sorely missed.

    Term limits also do not prevent lacklustre candidates from being elected.

    In 2014, Cristin Carmichael Greb was elected in Ward 16 with only 17.4% of the vote, a 1.2% margin over her nearest competitor. This was despite the support of John Tory’s campaign. Carmichael Greb has proven to be an ineffective councillor. In Ward 5, Justin Di Ciano has made a name for himself opposing democratic measures such as ranked ballots, new ward boundaries, and supporting a questionable development proposal backed by a firm with which he has close ties. Like Mammoliti, Councillor Di Ciano has found himself under OPP investigation.

    I continue to prefer other methods of limiting the power of incumbency. Ranked ballots would be a good first step. In 2014, Ward 12 incumbent Frank Di Giorgio, in office since 2000, won with only 29% of the vote in a four-way race. Ranked ballots could have made a difference there.

    I also believe that all adult permanent residents, not just Canadian citizens, should be able to vote in municipal elections. As municipalities have the responsibility for delivering local services, such as police, parks and recreation, roads, transit, libraries, and water and waste services, all residents have a stake in how they are being delivered. Extending the municipal franchise could help community engagement, especially in neighbourhoods poorly represented by indifferent or antagonistic city councillors. In contrast, non-resident property owners are permitted to vote. Council voted to request the province to allow non-citizen voting in 2013, but the province was under no obligation to respond to the city’s request.

    I was hoping that in 2018, Giorgio Mammoliti would finally be defeated. TDSB trustee Tiffany Ford is a promising young candidate that had a good shot of defeating him under the new 47-ward model. However, with the 25 ward boundaries imposed by Premier Doug Ford, Mammoliti will be up against more challengers, including fellow incumbent Anthony Perruzza. Perhaps Perruzza or Tiffany Ford will still be able to defeat him.

    While term limits sound like a great solution for solving a problem like Mammoliti, they aren’t necessarily a great solution for improving local democracy.

  • Why Doug Ford’s plan for 25 Toronto wards is an attack on local democracy

    Ridings and 47 Wards.jpgMap of Doug Ford’s proposed 25 wards and the City Council-approved 47 ward boundaries

    Late last week, the newly elected Ontario Progressive Conservative government announced that they would be imposing a new electoral map on the City of Toronto, a decision that would eliminate the new 47 wards approved by Toronto City Council, replacing them with the same 25 boundaries used by the federal and provincial governments.

    It’s very clear that Premier Doug Ford’s plan, which requires a new piece of legislation, ironically titled the “Better Local Government Act,” is vindictive and mean-spirited because it only affects the City of Toronto, which rejected Doug Ford’s 2014 mayoral bid. It quashes the hopes of many young, racialized, and progressive candidates looking to change the make up of a council that has generally supported Mayor John Tory’s agenda. It is unfair to candidates that ran in good faith, started campaigns, raised funds, and spent money hiring staff, purchasing materials, and renting campaign offices.

    But most of all, Ford’s actions are an attack on local democracy because of the haste with which they are being made, at the end of the nomination period for those approved 47 wards. They ignore the years of study by independent experts and several rounds of public consultations. They also benefit Toronto’s suburban areas, which are growing at a far slower rate than downtown Toronto, North York Centre and Etobicoke’s waterfront area, which will be disproportionately affected by this arbitrary decision.

    Each new ward was designed to have an average population of 61,000, with a population range of between 51,800 and 72,000 (+/- 15%). They were designed to last for four election cycles, to be re-drawn before the 2034 election.

    It is worth noting that the independent experts looked at using the 25 federal/provincial boundaries twice. In the first study, they were rejected early on because they would not “meet the tests of effective representation.” The federal boundaries, which are also adopted by the province of Ontario, are based on population counts from the 2011 Census, and are already seven years out-of-date, while the consultants were tasked with developing new ward boundaries to last 16 years. Even a 50-ward solution (which mimics the old 44 wards based on the 22 federal ridings that were established in 1996 and came into effect with the 1997 federal election) would result in severe variations in population.

    Ridings and 2026 pop variation.jpgHow the 25 ridings, if used for Toronto’s ward boundaries, will vary in population by 2026

    After Tory’s Executive Committee tasked the Toronto Ward Boundary Review team to re-examine options that would see fewer than 47 councillors elected in 2018, they re-examined using the 25 ward boundaries. They found that in 2026, three of those wards — Toronto Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Spadina-Fort York — would have populations over 30% higher than the ward average in 2026. Willowdale and University-Rosedale would also have had much larger populations than the city average.

    The review team also looked at a 26-ward option that mostly maintained the riding boundaries but added a new ward downtown out of the Toronto Centre and Spadina-Fort York constituencies and adjusted boundaries in southern Etobicoke. Even then, Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would still have populations over 20% higher than the city-wide average. Despite making some adjustments for population growth, this option would have not have corresponded with some ridings, and was also not recommended.

    26 Wards and 2026 pop variation.jpgHow the modified 26 ridings, if used for Toronto’s ward boundaries, would have varied in population in 2026

    For those reasons, and to support local representation, the 47-ward solution was once again recommended, and was approved by City Council in November 2016. Councillors Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) and Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7) then appealed the new boundaries to the Ontario Municipal Board, but they were dismissed. The 47-ward solution has survived despite it all.

    Mayor Tory may have brought back decorum to the mayor’s office after an embarrassing period under Doug Ford’s brother Rob, but he has pushed an austerity agenda, and has failed to show leadership on police reform, wasteful infrastructure spending, and safe streets for pedestrians and cyclists. His initial reaction, to call for a referendum on Ford’s plan to cut Toronto’s council, was a characteristically weak response; he was later pushed into supporting a legal challenge by an angry public. Meanwhile, some of Tory’s allies, like Di Ciano, David Shiner, and Glenn De Baeremaeker, support Ford’s actions.

    Ford’s attack on local democracy is an insult to candidates who have already put their names forward for election and launched their campaigns. It undermines the City of Toronto’s legislated responsibility to decide its own ward boundaries. And it will only exasperate existing disparities in council representation.

  • Mapping the 2018 candidates for Toronto’s 47 wards (Updated)

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    September 10, 2018
    This morning, the Ontario Superior Court ruled against Bill 5, finding that the bill  “substantially interfered with the municipal candidate’s freedom of expression that is guaranteed under [Section 2(b) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.]”

    Barring a successful provincial appeal (or invoking Section 33 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, also known as the Notwithstanding Clause), this is once again the map of council candidates for the October 22 election.

    September 12, 2018
    Oh, never mind. We’re back to the 25 wards because its not as if Doug Ford has anything better to do than override a judicial finding with the Notwithstanding Clause and re-introducing the vindictive legislation. And we may not even get to vote in advance polls.

    Once the new law is passed, there will be two days for council candidates to sign up to run in the 25 wards.


    August 15, 2018

    Bill 5, the so-called “Better Local Government Act,” passed third reading on August 13, 2018, and was given royal assent on Tuesday August 14, despite vigourous opposition from the New Democratic Party. Bill 5 passed without any public consultation that usually takes place with any government legislation, as the Progressive Conservatives used procedural tactics to push through the bill as quickly as possible.

    (A new map of the 25 wards can be found here.)

    This means that legally, the City of Toronto must follow the province’s edict and elect only twenty-five councillors, with wards based on the current provincial riding boundaries. Scarborough Councillor Glenn De Baremaeker has already announced that he will no longer seek re-election.

    I have no intentions of removing the map below, but I will be creating a new 25-ward map and populating it once nominations re-open. I suspect that many council candidates will not re-register, and that there will be many more incumbents facing off against each other.

    There’s a faint hope that a legal injunction could suspend Bill 5. Council candidate and lawyer Rocco Achampong is seeking one, the courts will hear arguments by the end of the month.

    (more…)

  • Where, exactly, is Northern Ontario?

    29496350986_0f43c86857_k.jpgThe French River at Highway 69, where Northern Ontario truly begins

    Last week, the leaders of the three major provincial parties (Liberals, Progressive Conservatives, and the New Democrats) met in Parry Sound, at a debate dedicated to issues specific to Northern Ontario. It was the second of three debates scheduled ahead of the June 7, 2018 general election.

    But is Parry Sound, a town that’s only a two hour’s drive north of Toronto (when free of weekend Cottage Country traffic) really a part of Northern Ontario? That depends on who you ask. Even government agencies disagree. In my opinion, though, Parry Sound isn’t in Northern Ontario, even though the district it’s located in shares some characteristics of this vast part of the province.

    Despite living my entire life in the Greater Toronto Area, I have an affinity for Northern Ontario, particularly the northeastern part of the province. My father’s hometown is Timmins, one of my siblings lives in Sudbury, and I have visited both cities many times. I made a trip up to Sault Ste. Marie to ride the Algoma Central Railway passenger train between Sault Ste. Marie and Hearst and back before it was cancelled, and I still lament the loss of the Northlander, Ontario Northland Railway’s passenger train between Toronto and Cochrane that was terminated in 2012. I even made it all the way to Moosonee, on the James Bay coast.

    The northern part of this province covers a huge area — over 800,000 square kilometres, larger than France, Belgium, and the Netherlands combined — but has a population of just over 750,000. It is even crossed by a time zone boundary. Despite my connection to the region, I had yet to make a proper visit to Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario (I finally paid a visit in August 2019).

    The North includes many First Nations communities accessible only by plane or ice road. Other communities, with names like Dryden, Kapuskasing, Iroquois Falls, and Kirkland Lake, were established to serve mines or pulp mills — resulting in a very different economic landscape than the agricultural and industrial south. In recent decades, many of those mines and mills have closed, eliminating many towns’ only major employer.

    In a province dominated by the urban centres in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Ottawa, and London, it’s too easy to ignore the North.

    So how do people actually define Northern Ontario?

    Traditionally, Northern Ontario begins at the French River, Lake Nipissing, and at the Mattawa River. North Bay, which calls itself the “Gateway to the North” sits right on this line. For administrative purposes, this includes the entirety of Sudbury and Nipissing Districts, which extend south of the French and Mattawa Rivers, and includes most of Algonquin Park. It also includes Manitoulin Island, which can only be reached year-round from the north, through Sudbury District.

    The Canadian Shield, the defining landscape of most of Northern Ontario, starts further south. Driving north from Toronto on Highways 400 or 11, the shield starts about where Simcoe County ends and Muskoka District starts. But the Canadian Shield also encompasses large sections of the City of Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough, Hastings, Frontenac, and Lanark Counties and the entirety of Haliburton County.

    NOntarioThe various definitions of Northern Ontario, including the county, regional and district boundaries. 

    But the provincial and federal governments both have special economic development funding programs whose boundaries take a more liberal definition of Northern Ontario. FedNor, the Government of Canada’s economic development agency, includes Parry Sound and Muskoka Districts. The Northern Ontario Heritage Fund Corporation, a provincial agency, includes Parry Sound District, but not Muskoka District.

    Whether Parry Sound and Muskoka are considered part of Northern Ontario is very much a political question. In 2004, the newly elected Liberal government chose to remove Muskoka from the areas eligible for provincial grants meant for northern communities — Muskoka being a reliable Progressive Conservative seat, and the riding of the previous PC premier, Ernie Eves.

    Parry Sound District, while not, in my view, part of Northern Ontario, at least shares some similar characteristics with neighbouring Sudbury and Nipissing Districts. It includes many isolated communities, and apart from the Town of Parry Sound itself, it has a very sparse population. Muskoka, on the other hand, is more urbanized with three larger towns, and is much more popular for recreation, particularly during the summer. Muskoka also has a regional government — the District Municipality — while much of Parry Sound District’s land is unorganized — meaning lands without any municipal government.

    And if one considers Muskoka to be part of Northern Ontario, why not also include Haliburton County, which also has a sparse population and is relatively isolated from the urbanized south? A line needs to be drawn somewhere, and there is no valid reason why Muskoka should ever be considered a part of Northern Ontario. There might be a case for Parry Sound District, but definitely not cottage country.

  • The John Tory Way

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    Yonge Street looking south from Richmond Hill

    There’s an episode of The Simpsons where Homer Simpson changes his name to Max Power, after he’s ridiculed for sharing the name with a buffoonish television character. It’s not a great episode — it came out at the time the show was in transition from its glory years to the “Zombie Simpsons” era — but it has a few good laughs.

    There’s one good memorable quote:

    — “There’s the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power way!”
    — “Isn’t that the wrong way?”
    — “Yeah, but faster!”

    On important transportation projects, the John Tory way is the wrong way, but costlier. We’ve seen this several times during his mayoralty.

    When it came time to replace the underused eastern section of the Gardiner Expressway, Tory and his suburban allies on council voted in favour of a more expensive “hybrid” option that maintains much of the elevated highway, instead of a cheaper at-grade option that would provide a better pedestrian realm on the Eastern Waterfront and better support new development.

    In Scarborough, Tory stubbornly supports building a one-stop subway extension that was last estimated to cost $3.35 billion dollars, instead of supporting a seven stop LRT route from Kennedy Station that would extend the existing grade-separated Scarborough RT route to Centennial College and Sheppard Avenue. A proposed SmartTrack station at Lawrence East (whose estimated construction cost has risen from $26 million to $155 million) may not be able to be built while the Scarborough RT is still in operation.

    And on February 27, Toronto’s Public Works and Infrastructure Committee (PWIC) voted against plans backed by city staff, the local councillor, John Filion, and many residents and road safety advocates, to transform Yonge Street in North York Centre between Sheppard and Finch Avenues. This section of Yonge Street is due for reconstruction, hence the opportunity to rethink the street to better serve the community.

    The REimagining Yonge Street plan seeks to improve the pedestrian realm with widened sidewalks, would add new cycling infrastructure. To make room for these improvements, two traffic lanes — used for street parking outside of weekday rush hours — would be removed. This stretch of Yonge Street has seen many new condominium towers built over the last decade, and there are three subway stations serving this stretch of Yonge Street.

    Mayor Tory, who has the power to select committee chairs and members, stated his preference for the status quo on Yonge Street, suggesting that the bike lanes be moved one block west, to Beecroft Avenue. PWIC moved for this alternative option as well, even though city staff reported that the change would cost an additional $20 million.

    YongeCrossSectionYonge Street between Sheppard and Finch Avenues would have seen new separated bike lanes, wider sidewalks, and new public art. (From the EA materials.)

    The decision to maintain the status quo on Yonge Street benefits commuters outside of Toronto more than local residents, so it is puzzling why Mayor Tory has declared his support — once again — for an option that puts drivers first. Nearly three-quarters of rush-hour drivers on Yonge Street through North York come from York Region. A majority of residents take transit, walk, or cycle; they would benefit from a safer, more pleasant street. Moving the bicycle route to Beecroft Avenue serves to move cyclists out of the way of cars, rather than providing a direct route with better access to transit, shops, and homes.

    With Doug Ford focused on the Ontario Progressive Conservative party leadership race, there are — as of yet — no high-profile challengers to Mayor Tory’s re-election bid. There is no need to pander to a voting bloc angered by a so-called “war on the car” unless Tory actually supports suburban commuters over his own constituents. And this decision will only cost more money.

    Once again, Mayor John Tory has chosen the wrong way.

  • Mapping Toronto’s approved new ward boundaries

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    On Monday, October 22, 2018, Torontonians will be electing a new city council. And for the first time since 2000, Toronto’s ward boundaries will be changing.

    When the new council is formed on December 1, 2018, there will be 47 wards, up from 44. Downtown Toronto will gain three new seats, and North York will gain one, but one seat is lost in Toronto’s west end, in an area currently represented by Wards 14, 17, and 18. Seven wards in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough will remain unchanged.

    Earlier this week, the City of Toronto added the new boundaries to its open data catalogue, so I used the data to create an interactive Google map. This map, embedded below, shows both the current 44 wards, and the approved new 47 wards. Each of the two ward boundary layers can be turned on and off.


    Google map showing current and approved new ward boundaries

    These new ward boundaries are the result of a long four-year study and consultation process, and represent a compromise that improves representation in high-growth areas, while minimizing the loss of council representation elsewhere. Several other options were explored, including reducing the number of councillors to 25, but they were rejected by the consultants hired by the city to draw the new wards; they were also unpopular among members of the public who attended the consultations.

    While Toronto City Council approved the new boundaries in November 2016 (despite Mayor John Tory’s opposition), Councillors Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) and Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7) appealed the new boundaries to the Ontario Municipal Board. Happily, the OMB dismissed the two councillors’ complaints last month. Both councillors are likely to run for re-election in modified versions of their existing wards.

    I will update the interactive map, adding candidate names for each of the new wards. Nominations are open from May 1, 2018 through July 27, 2018.

    Thanks to Gil Meslin (@g_meslin), who altered me to the fact that the new ward boundaries were available on the city’s website. 

  • King Street complainers need to remember why they’re on King Street

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    On Friday, CBC Toronto ran a story on several King Street West businesses that have claimed that the new King Street Pilot have caused them to lose customers in December.  The three business owners mentioned in the article were Laleh Larijani of Forno Cultura, a bakery on King east of Bathurst, and two Restaurant Row restaurateurs: Jesse Warfield, whose family owns the Gabby’s chain of restaurants, and Fred Luk, owner of Fred’s Not Here and The Red Tomato.

    The King Street Pilot was launched by the City of Toronto on November 12, 2017. At many intersections between Bathurst and Jarvis Streets, cars and trucks are required to turn right off of King Street, prioritizing streetcar traffic. Most on-street parking spots were removed from King Street through this section, but designated areas allow for deliveries, passenger pick-ups and drop-offs, and access to local properties, including parking garages. Despite some [predictable] hyperbole from suburban politicians and reactionary journalists, cars are not in fact banned from any section of King Street. And there are many public and privately-owned garages adjacent to the pilot corridor for motorists to park at.

    For transit riders, the King Street Pilot is working. In December, the TTC reported travel time reductions for the busy 504 King and 514 Cherry Streetcars of up to 24 percent. However, it still struggles to keep up with demand. The continuing delays in the new streetcar deliveries from Bombardier have not helped matters; and streetcars still often run overcrowded, leaving some passengers behind at streetcar stops. There are some necessary tweaks to be made: TTC schedules should take advantage of improved travel times, and transit signal priority is also necessary with the new far-side stop locations at intersections. Signal priority will help to ensure streetcars don’t have to stop at a red light at the near side of the intersection and again to load passengers at the far side.

    But since it’s a year-long pilot project, these tweaks can be made.

    Unfortunately the CBC article was weak in that it presented only the business owners’ complaints about the King Street Pilot, without hard data to back up the claims of lost business. Only one Toronto city councillor was quoted, John Campbell, who represents Ward 4, Etobicoke Centre. Ward 4 is an affluent, suburban part of the city that does not have any streetcar lines. Councillor Campbell, who also sits on the Toronto Transit Commission, would like to see street parking permitted during evenings and weekends:

    “I would like to see people able to park here in the evening, park here on the weekends, because listen, when it’s –15 C people don’t want to walk a block-and-a-half to get to a restaurant. They want to park within 100 metres. I think that would bring more vibrancy back,” [Campbell] explained.

    It’s worth pointing out that motorists will walk much further than 100 metres when parking at busy suburban malls like Sherway Gardens or Yorkdale; it’s also the distance from many GO Transit parking spots to the train platform. The walk between the front doors of the Royal Alexandra Theatre and Princess of Wales Theatre on King Street is nearly 200 metres.

    Watering down the King Street Pilot would doom it to failure: as any King Street transit rider knows, traffic congestion didn’t suddenly disappear at 6:30 PM. It’s an unreasonable expectation to find ample parking 100 metres from many downtown businesses and institutions.

    It’s worth noting that a suburban councillor has taken so much interest in watering down a downtown initiative championed by downtown councillors, and that as a member of the TTC board, Campbell wishes to reduce the benefit to many of the transit agency’s customers.

    Fred Luk, profiled in the CBC article, has a long history of complaining to Toronto media, as pointed out by urbanist and writer Shawn Micallef on Twitter. In the last few years, Luk has complained about the increase in the minimum wage, higher energy costs, the effects of the 2003 SARS outbreak and the 2010 G20 Summit, even the 1999 municipal indoor smoking ban. Yet Luk’s King Street restaurants persisted.

    There are many factors that can influence the success of restaurant businesses. Obviously, the quality of food and service should be examined. It’s worth noting that Toronto is bearing with unseasonably cold temperatures, it’s the low season for tourism, and there aren’t any blockbuster musicals currently playing at the Royal Alex or Princess of Wales. Motorists still have to get used to the new arrangements and change their habits; it’s only been seven weeks so far. Once the weather improves, the curb lane in front of Restaurant Row can be used for wider sidewalks, even enlarged front patios.

    The smart thing for a business owner concerned about a decline in patronage would be to use the free publicity to promote the restaurants, rather than complain about a loss of business. Businesses in the Entertainment District are largely driven by walk-up traffic; there’s a reason why menus are posted by the doors and in the summertime, you can’t walk past Restaurant Row without having a representative out front trying to get you to look at their menu.

    Locating a restaurant on King Street West has lots of advantages: the proximity to thousands of residents, many nearby offices, hotels, entertainment and sports venues, and excellent transit access and ever increasing pedestrian activity. It is not realistic to expect ample street parking to be one those advantages.

    If access to parking were the chief concern, it would be wise to set up in a suburban plaza somewhere else, like in John Campbell’s Etobicoke. Complaining about a major improvement to the travel times of thousands of commuters, without offering any incentives for potential customers to visit your restaurants isn’t productive. Instead, doom and gloom messaging may only damage business further, resulting in a self-fulfilling prophecy.