Toronto election 2018: no surprises

Last night, there were some disappointments and one or two bright spots in the results of Toronto’s municipal election, but there were no big surprises.

It was disappointing to see voter turnout drop. In 2014, 54.7% of eligible voters turned out. There was a three-way mayoral race between John Tory, Doug Ford, and Olivia Chow. This year, only 41% of eligible voters came out. This was no surprise: the election was tarnished by Premier Ford’s vindictive Bill 5, which cut the number of wards from 47 to 25, in the middle of the campaign.

While I was very happy to see former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat declare her candidacy in response to Tory’s inadequate response to Bill 5, Keesmaat didn’t have the time or the organization to compete against Tory. She took less than 25% of the vote and Tory came in first place in all 25 wards.

It was also hard to see many good local politicians defeated by fellow councillors in the new larger boundaries. It was difficult to see Josh Matlow and Joe Mihevc run against each other (Matlow won in the end). I would have also liked to see new voices, including Tiffany Ford and Amber Morley, do better. There are only four persons of colour on the new council. As Toronto Star columnist Ed Keenan points out, this is the same as the number of Michaels elected.

But at least Giorgio Mammoliti is gone.

The balance of power on the smaller 25-ward Toronto City Council is similar to the old 44-ward council. By my count, there are eight left-leaning councillors, five swing votes, and eleven conservatives. John Tory leans conservative, and he will need the support of 14 councillors to get items passed.

Progressives (8):

• Shelley Carroll (Ward 17)
• Joe Cressy (Ward 10)
• John Filion (Ward 18)
• Paula Fletcher (Ward 14)
• Mike Layton (Ward 11)
• Josh Matlow (Ward 12)
• Gord Perks (Ward 4)
• Anthony Perruzza (Ward 7)
• Kristyn Wong-Tam (Ward 13)

Swing votes (5):

• Paul Ainslie (Ward 24)
• Ana Bailão (Ward 9)
• Brad Bradford (Ward 19)
• Mike Colle (Ward 8)
• Jennifer McKelvie (Ward 25)

Conservatives (11):

• Gary Crawford (Ward 20)
• Michael Ford (Ward 1)
• Mark Grimes (Ward 3)
• Stephen Holyday (Ward 2)
• Jim Karygiannis (Ward 22)
• Cynthia Lai (Ward 25)
• Denzil Minnan-Wong (Ward 16)
• Frances Nunziata (Ward 5)
• James Pasternak (Ward 6)
• Jaye Robinson (Ward 15)
• Michael Thompson (Ward 21)

Despite these three simplistic labels, it’s impossible to predict how each vote may go, and how Mayor Tory will tackle new challenges brought on by the Ford government and the fiscal iceberg.

In the next few weeks, after the official election results are released, I’ll delve into the numbers and map the more interesting ward races, if not all 25 wards.