Sean Marshall

Tag: Ward 25

  • Mapping the council race in Ward 25, Scarborough-Rouge Park

    2018-election-w25-e1541864142688

    I start my analysis of the 25 council races with Ward 25, Scarborough–Rouge Park, where Neethan Shan, the incumbent councillor for old Ward 42, lost in a very tight race to Jennifer McKelvie, who was elected to public office for the first time. Both candidates originally ran in different areas under the approved 47 wards (Shan in Ward 45, McKelvie in Ward 47), but Bill 5, Premier Doug Ford’s legislation that reduced Toronto City Council to just 25 wards, changed everything.

    Ward 25 was an interesting race for several reasons. It was one of only two contests in which an incumbent councillor lost to a non-incumbent challenger (the other was Ward 8 Eglinton–Lawrence, where Mike Colle defeated Christin Carmichael Greb). It was also the closest of the 25 council races. McKelvie won with 11,624 votes (40.2 percent), just 154 more votes than Shan. The win margin was just 0.53 percent. There were eleven candidates in total.

    The new ward boundaries imposed by the provincial government likely helped McKelvie win. The western part of old Ward 42, areas where Shan would have enjoyed the incumbency advantage, shifted to new Ward 23. Meanwhile, almost the entirety of old Ward 44, where McKelvie made a strong showing in the 2014 election, was incorporated in the new ward. The map above shows that Shan came in first place in every poll that formerly in Ward 42, while McKelvie placed first in nearly every poll south of Highway 401.

    Ward 25 Scarborough-Rouge Park
    Candidate Total Votes Percentage
    Amanda Cain 831 2.9
    Paul Cookson 1897 6.6
    Daniel Cubellis 527 1.8
    Jasper Ghori 337 1.2
    Reza Khoshdel 548 1.9
    Cheryl Lewis-Thurab 638 2.2
    Dave Madder 151 0.5
    Jennifer McKelvie 11624 40.2
    Christopher Riley 456 1.6
    Neethan Shan 11470 39.7
    Joseph Thomas 428 1.5

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  • Mapping the 2014 Toronto election: Wards 21, 22, and 25

    2014 Election - WARD 21-22 MayorPoll results of the mayoral race in Wards 21 and 22, St. Paul’s

    The Christmas Eve edition in my series of posts illustrating the results of the 2014 Toronto municipal election results is definitely not the most exciting. (If you want excitement on Christmas Eve, head to Yorkdale or the Eaton Centre before they close, or go watch Die Hard.) Newly elected mayor John Tory came in first place by over 50% in each of the three wards, and three popular incumbent councillors were returned to office by landslides.

    In one of my earlier posts, I looked at Ward 16, the other Midtown ward. It at least had a very interesting race for councillor; the seat was up for grabs when Karen Stintz ran for mayor.

    Mayoral race

    2014 Election - WARD 25 MayorPoll results of the mayoral race in Wards 25, Don Valley West

    John Tory won all three wards by wide margins, but he was most popular in Ward 25  – Toronto’s wealthiest – winning with 69.4% of the vote there.

    Olivia Chow came in first place in 11 polls in Ward 21, located mostly in Hillcrest Village and along Vaughan Road (where there are many older rental apartment buildings). Chow won one poll in Ward 22, a rental apartment building in the Davisville-Merton neighbourhood; she came in a close second place in neighbouring polls. In the affluent Forest Hill and Cedarvale neighbourhoods, Tory won polls by margins of over 50%.

    Doug Ford came in first place just one poll – Poll 031 in Ward 25, a TCHC property on Yonge Street. Otherwise, Tory won by comfortable margins in most other polls in Ward 25, with the exception of the southwest corner, closest to Yonge and Eglinton, where Chow came in a close second place in several polls.

    No surprises.

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