Mapping the 2023 mayoral byelection

Last week Monday, I was at Spacing’s election night party at a pub in the Annex, watching the results of the election roll in after 8PM. Public polls consistently saw former Toronto city councillor and NDP MP Olivia Chow leading an especially crowded race of 102 candidates for mayor. It was the most exciting election I’ve followed since at least 2014.

Former three-term councillor Ana Bailão, one of former mayor John Tory’s protégées, was consistently in second place, followed by former Toronto Police Chief (and provincial PC candidate) Mark Saunders, sitting councillors Josh Matlow (who ran as a progressive) and Brad Bradford (who ran to the right), and right-wing columnist Anthony Furey. Though Bailão, a centrist, had the endorsements of multiple sitting councillors, Liberal MPs and MPPs, and several public and private sector unions, she had difficulty positioning herself as the presumptive centre-right challenger, especially with Premier Doug Ford backing Saunders.

It was not until the advance polls had closed that Deputy Mayor Jennifer McKelvie, the Toronto Star Editorial Board, and then Tory himself endorsed Bailão, likely spooked by Chow’s continued lead. (David Rider and Ben Spurr at the Star wrote a great article about the leadup to Tory’s endorsement.) Tory, who resigned after admitting to a long-term city hall affair, hummed and hawed over providing his endorsement, and hid from reporters even while robocalling Torontonians pleading them to vote for his appointed successor.

It is quite possible that Tory’s endorsement came too little, too late for Bailão. Nearly 150,000 electors (representing 21.7% of all votes cast) already voted in advance polls or by mail, and their votes were locked in. But the late push for Bailão was able to convince at least some election day voters to choose strategically — the percentage of voters who chose Saunders, Furey, and Matlow fell, while Bailão’s share grew on election day. Indeed, Bailão placed first among election day voters. But Chow, whose campaign encouraged advance voting, carried the day in the end.

For example, Josh Matlow placed a close second in Ward 12 in the advance polls (with 30.6% of the vote), where he’s a popular local councillor. On election day, Matlow placed third behind Bailão and Chow, with Chow eking out a narrow win overall there. In every ward, Chow placed first in the advance polls, but when all votes were counted, she placed first in 14 of the 25 wards. The table below shows how the vote shifted.

Chow won with 269,372 votes (37.2%) to Ana Bailão’s 235,175 (32.5%). Saunders, Ford’s pick, got just 8.6% of the vote despite his positioning as the only candidate to “stop Chow.” Furey placed a distant fourth, with 5%, and Matlow got 4.9%, acknowledging that Bailão’s late surge draw support away from him and towards Bailão and Chow. Brad Bradford was the biggest loser of the night, netting just 1.3% and placing fifth in his own ward.

Though I was skeptical of Olivia Chow’s second run for mayor after an uninspiring run against Rob and Doug Ford and John Tory in 2014 (she placed third), she proved herself worthy this time around. She was more relaxed, more herself, and certainly tapped into a desire for change after eight years of Tory’s dull austerity and four years of chaos under Rob Ford (enabled by his brother Doug).

I fear Toronto’s political establishment — both Conservative and Liberal — will try to make Chow’s term as mayor difficult, even though their low-tax, low-spend agenda caused many of the problems that she will have to tackle. But for now, I’m pleased we will try it her way.

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I created an interactive map showing the results of the election at the ward and electoral subdivision (poll) level. For the wards, I provided information on the advance and election day poll results.

Note that not all polls are mapped. Until the City of Toronto releases revised electoral subdivision boundaries (I suspect due to poll consolidations), there are some missing polls. However, 95% of all polls are depicted, and the results are interesting.

I look forward to your feedback as well; I approve all reasonable comments and reply to most emails.

Thanks to David Del Grande for pointing out a needed correction.