Sean Marshall

Tag: Toronto

  • Voter turnouts in the 2018 Toronto municipal election

    2014 was a watershed year for municipal voter turnout in Toronto. After a disastrous four years of Rob Ford as mayor, 54.7 percent of all eligible voters went to the polls, electing John Tory. That was the highest voter turnout in decades, even higher than 1997, when Torontonians elected Mel Lastman to lead a newly amalgamated City of Toronto. In 2010, when Rob Ford was elected mayor, turnout was 50.4 percent, compared to 39.3 percent in 2006 and 38.3 percent in 2000.

    Four years ago, the mayoral race was especially competitive. Progressive Olivia Chow was the initial front-runner against Ford, but Tory (who previously ran for mayor in 2003) pulled ahead as Chow’s campaign floundered. Late in the campaign, Rob Ford dropped out due to health concerns, so his brother Doug took his place. Among the three frontrunners, Tory got 40.3 percent of the vote, while Doug Ford took 33.7 percent. Chow only got 23.1 percent. Voters also elected seven new councillors that year, and returned Rob Ford to Ward 2.

    After two elections in which over half the number of eligible voters took part, in 2018 voter turnout fell to just 40.9 percent. This was hardly surprising. John Tory cruised to victory despite a challenge by former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat, while a sudden reduction in the number of wards confused voters and crushed the hopes of many council hopefuls and their supporters.

    Though 769,000 electors voted in this mess of an election, voter turnout varied across the city. In Ward 23, Scarborough North, only 34.1 percent of eligible voters turned out to the polls. In Ward 7, Humber River-Black Creek, just 34.6 percent of electors voted. Ward 10, Spadina-Fort York, had the third worst turnout, with just 34.8 percent.

    Areas with the highest voter turnout were Midtown and east end Toronto. Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth had the highest turnout, where 49.2 percent of electors cast a vote. It was followed by Ward 15 and Ward 12 (both of which had 48.5 percent turnout) and Ward 19, where 48.4 percent of electors went to the polls.

    Wards 12, 14, 15, and 19 had interesting and competitive council races. In Ward 14, the race featured two progressive incumbents, while Ward 19 was one of just two races in which an established city councillor was not running for re-election. Wards 12 and 15 also had competitive races. However, in Ward 4, Gord Perks won re-election easily.

    Yet Ward 23 had an open council race in which no incumbent was running. And Ward 7 was one of the most interesting and important races of 2018; this is where Giorgio Mammoliti was finally defeated after years of campaign violations, buffoonery, and embarrassments.

    2018-election-turnout-by-ward-e1547405800521.jpg

    2018 voter turnout by ward (alternate version available here)

    Voter turnout has consistently been low in Toronto’s northwest and northeast corners. In 2014, Ward 8 and Ward 41 (which made up parts of new Wards 7 and 23) had the lowest numbers of electors casting a vote. Turnout was highest in more affluent neighbourhoods, especially in places like Midtown Toronto, the Kingsway neighbourhood in Etobicoke, and in Toronto’s East End. What surprised me mostly was the poor turnout in Ward 10 in 2018.

    2014-election-turnout-e1547405905585.jpg

    2014 voter turnout by ward (alternate version available here)

    The difference in voter turnout across the city is more apparent at the neighbourhood level. With the poll-level results available through Toronto’s Open Data Catalogue, I allocated the poll results to each of Toronto’s 140 neighbourhoods, while adjusting the numbers based on the number of votes cast in the advance polls in each ward. The map below shows voter turnout at the neighbourhood level in 2018.

    citydata-nabes-turnouts-2018-e1547406217401.jpg
    2018 voter turnout by neighbourhood (alternate version available here)

    What is immediately apparent is that voter turnout is highest in many neighbourhoods surrounding Toronto’s downtown core, while turnout is lowest in the former City of York, in northwestern Toronto and parts of Scarborough. Areas of high voter turnout tend to be affluent neighbourhoods with high levels of home ownership. These neighbourhoods include the Kingsway, Lawrence Park, Leaside, Cabbagetown, Rosedale, Forest Hill, Swansea, the Beaches, and Leaside. Many of these areas also have active residents’ associations. With Ryerson professor Myer Siemiatycki, I looked at the results of previous municipal election voter turnouts in a report published by the Maytree Foundation.

    Downtown, areas with major condominium developments also have lower turnout, especially in places like the Waterfront, CityPlace, Liberty Village, and the Bay Street corridor. These areas are more likely to have younger residents and many renters. Engaging voters both in downtown condos and those living in the inner suburbs remains a challenge. While voter turnout was much higher in 2014 across the city, the same basic patterns are evident.citydata-nabes-turnouts-2014.jpg
    2014 voter turnout by neighbourhood (alternate version available here)

  • Mapping the results in Ward 4 Parkdale-High Park and Ward 9 Davenport

    In the penultimate post in my series examining the results of the 25 council races in the October 2018 municipal election here in Toronto, I take a look at the results in Ward 4, Parkdale-High Park and Ward 9, Davenport in Toronto’s west end.

    Neither of the two ward-level results were surprising. Ward 4 returned progressive councillor Gord Perks to City Hall, while in Ward 9, there wasn’t much of a contest: centrist Ana Bailão was easily re-elected.

    At the start of 2018, once the 47 ward boundaries were confirmed, it looked as though Bailão was going to be in one of the most interesting council races. The west end of the old City of Toronto — old Wards 14, 17, and 18 — had low population growth compared to many other parts of the city, including northeast Scarborough, North York Centre, Humber Bay Shores, and Downtown. These new ward boundaries were designed to improve representation as the old 44 wards were based on federal ridings drawn in the 1990s. Even with three new wards, the west end would lose a seat on council. The way the boundaries were drawn, it meant that Bailão, elected in Ward 18, would be up against Cesar Palacio, elected in Ward 17.

    2014 Election - 2018 Ward Projections
    Differences in 2018 ward populations under the old 44-ward model. Toronto’s west end was one of several areas over-represented by the outdated boundaries.

    Under the 47-ward model, it would have been the only race in which two incumbents would have ran against one another and Bailão would have had the advantage.

    Palacio, a conservative, was vulnerable in the last few elections, challenged by progressive candidates Alejandra Bravo and Jonah Schein, with Palacio narrowly winning in 2010. With the new boundaries extending south to Bloor Street (the area south of Bloor shifting to join old Ward 14 represented by Gord Perks), Palacio’s base in the north half of his old ward would not have been enough — areas that voted for Bravo in 2014 would have certainly voted for Bailão in a two-candidate race.

    After Bill 5 was introduced and confirmed into law, things changed. Sarah Doucette, a progressive councillor representing old Ward 13 (Swansea, Bloor West Village and part of the Junction) withdrew from the race when her ward was joined with Ward 14 (Parkdale and Roncesvalles).

    Doucette, who was first elected in 2010, said that she wasn’t interested in serving on a 25 ward council. A councillor well-known for her local community activism, Doucette would have represented a much larger area, and would have run against Gord Perks, someone she describes as a friend. For his part, Perks said that “Doucette deeply embodied the values of decency and community at city council. It’s a crime that we’re losing her.”

    Meanwhile, Perks, who was running, still had several opponents in the new larger ward. They included David Ginsberg, owner of several restaurants and a coffee shop near Trinity-Bellwoods Park; Kalsang Dolma, a Parkdale-based artist and community activist; and Evan Tummillo, a property manager who ran against Doucette in 2014. Tummillo was endorsed by the Toronto Sun, while the Toronto Star endorsed Perks.

    In neighbouring Ward 9, Cesar Palacio quietly dropped out of the race in late September, only a few days before the new post-Bill 5 nomination deadline. This was a surprise, as he and Bailão had known that they would run against each other for a very long time. Only four other candidates had registered, none of whom enjoyed wide name recognition. Had Palacio withdrawn earlier, it is possible that a progressive candidate would have taken a shot at running against centrist Bailão.

    In Ward 4, Perks easily won re-election, taking 44.5 percent of the vote and placing first in all but five polls. Ginsberg placed a respectable second, with 21.6 percent. Ginsberg did best in the affluent Baby Point neighbourhood in former Ward 13, while Dolma did quite well in a few Parkdale polls, placing first in one. Tummillo got just 6.2 percent of the vote, coming first in just one poll, a seniors’ residence on Roncesvalles Avenue.

    2018 Election - W4.jpg
    Poll-level results for Ward 4

    Meanwhile, in Ward 9, Ana Bailão got the highest winning margin of any council candidate, taking 83.6 percent of the vote. As the councillor in the old City of Toronto most allied with Mayor John Tory, Bailão has since been named to the executive committee and chair of the new planning and housing committee. Perks, on the other hand, was shut out of Tory’s inner circle.

    Bill 5 meant losing councillors that knew their wards intimately. While councillors will be able to hire more staff to help manage these local issues, it’s still an unfortunate loss of local representation.

    Ward 4 Parkdale-High Park
    Candidate Votes Percent
    Kalsang Dolma 5,352 14.1
    David Ginsberg 8,181 21.6
    Valerie Grdisa 1,771 4.7
    Taras Kulish 868 2.3
    Gord Perks 16,887 44.5
    Nick Pavlov 874 2.3
    Alex Perez 686 1.8
    Evan Tummillo 2,367 6.2
    Ward 9 Davenport
    Candidate Votes Percent
    Ana Bailão 26,219 83.6
    Mark Balack 1,114 3.6
    Nahum Mann 2,804 8.9
    Troy Young 1,218 3.9

  • Mapping the council races in Etobicoke Wards 1 and 2

    In 2018, Etobicoke went three for three in returning hard-line conservative councillors to City Hall. In Ward 3, Mark Grimes was re-elected despite several controversies, with Mayor John Tory’s help. In Ward 1 and Ward 2, councillors with famous names were re-elected, cementing local political legacies. While the results in Ward 1 Etobicoke North were predictable, the results in Ward 2 Etobicoke Centre were disappointing.

    Under the previous 44 wards and the approved 47-ward model, Etobicoke had six seats on Toronto City Council. With the 25 wards forced on the city when Bill 5 came into law, they were reduced to three.

    Ward 1 — Etobicoke North

    Prior to the new ward boundaries coming into effect, old Ward 1 was represented by Vincent Crisanti. Ward 1 sits in the far northwestern part of Toronto, bounded by Steeles Avenue and Highway 427, as well as the West Humber River to the south and the East Humber River. Its boundaries would not have changed in the 47-ward model.

    Crisanti was first elected in 2010, defeating incumbent centrist Suzan Hall. Crisanti was a reliable ally during the first few years of Rob Ford’s disastrous mayoralty. Despite this, he was named one of Tory’s four deputy mayors after the 2014 election. This lasted until September 2017 when Crisanti publicly backed Doug Ford’s plan to run against Tory again for mayor.

    Ward 2 was the domain of the Ford family. Rob Ford was first elected there in 2000, and had made a name for himself both for his constituency work and for his outspoken behaviour at City Hall. Ford was on the lone side of many 44-1 votes while David Miller was mayor. He ran for mayor in 2010 and won after Miller decided against a third term; his brother, Doug, was elected in Rob’s place in Ward 2. Doug never had Rob’s personal touch. Instead his time as councillor was focused on enabling Rob’s self-destructive behaviour, creating distractions, and coming up with waterfront land schemes that helped to erode Rob Ford’s authority on council, two years before the crack scandal broke. Doug even declared that his under-served ward had too many libraries and expressed his eagerness to close them, starting a fight with Margaret Atwood.

    Early in 2014, his work done, Doug Ford was ready to bow out. Rob and Doug’s 20-year-old nephew, Michael Stirpe, changed his last name to Ford, and registered to run in his uncles’ place. But in September 2014, Rob abandoned his bid for re-election for mayor due to his poor health and Doug ran instead. Michael withdrew in September 2014 to run for the local Toronto District School Board trustee position so Rob could run in his old ward. Rob won in Ward 2 easily, getting 58.8 percent of the vote, while Doug came in second place in the mayoral race.

    Toronto would continue to be haunted by Doug Ford.

    After Rob Ford’s death in March 2016, Michael Ford ran in a summer by-election, getting 70 percent of the vote, though only 9391 voters bothered to turn out. It was looking like Michael Ford would easily win again in 2018.

    But then Doug Ford engineered a takeover of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, won the June 2018 provincial election, and wrecked local democracy in Toronto by imposing cuts to city council to just 25 wards. Despite his loyalty, Vincent Crisanti was just one more victim.

    Michael Ford was re-elected easily in the new combined Ward 1 with 42.3 percent of the vote, compared to Crisanti’s 34.3 percent. Other candidates such as Naiima Farah and Carol Royer spoke to the need for political change in a ward where three-quarters of the population are visible minorities. The Toronto Star endorsed Royer, a local entrepreneur and community activist, but she placed fifth, with just over 2 percent of the vote. Farah came in third, but got just 9 percent of the vote.

    Crisanti placed first in his old ward, getting 41 percent of the vote there while Michael Ford got 35 percent. In former Ward 2, Ford got over 50 percent of the vote compared to Crisanti’s 29 percent. Michael Ford had the support of his uncle; there were also over 2,000 more votes in the southern half of the ward. The result was not at all surprising.

    Farah placed first in two polls: Poll 055 on Dixon Road, and Poll 060, a highrise apartment near Eglinton Avenue and Martin Grove Road. Poll 055 is the home of many new immigrants, including a large Somali-Canadian community. Yet again, it was a shame that new voices, especially persons of colour, were shut out of this municipal election.

    2018 Election - W1.jpg
    Poll-level results in Ward 1, Etobicoke North

    Ward 2 — Etobicoke Centre

    Bill 5 also resulted in the amalgamation of former Wards 3 and 4.

    Ward 3 was represented by Stephen Holyday, the son of former Etobicoke mayor, Toronto councillor ,and one-time Ontario PC MPP Doug Holyday. The younger Holyday was first elected in 2014 and has been a reliable ally of John Tory, named one of Tory’s deputy mayors after Crisanti was stripped of the title in 2017. Along with Denzil Minnan-Wong, Holyday is one of council’s staunchest conservatives, as well as its most hostile to cyclists.

    Ward 4 was represented by John Campbell, a former chair of the Toronto District School Board. While a conservative, Campbell has been a more reasoned voice on city council than his fellow Etobicoke colleagues. For this reason, Campbell was endorsed by the Toronto Star.

    Also running were progressive candidate Erica Kelly, previously the NDP candidate in the provincial election, and Angelo Carnevale, who had the support of Doug Ford and Kinga Suma, the controversial Ford-backed PC MPP.

    Several polls previously located in old Ward 4 shifted to new Ward 1, while five polls in old Ward 2 shifted to Etobicoke Centre. This gave a slight advantage to Holyday, who did not lose any of his former ward.

    It was a close race, but Holyday won with 38.6 percent of the vote, while Campbell got 35.5 percent. Just 1186 votes separated the two incumbent candidates. Holyday was the first choice in all but two polls in former Ward 3 (two polls opted for Erica Kelly), while in former Ward 4, Holyday placed first in nine polls, Campbell placed first in just 28 election-day polls, but did well in the advance polls.

    Carnevale, who placed third with 15.1 percent, came first in just one poll, in an area previously represented by the Ford family. But Carnevale, who registered to run against Campbell in the old 47-ward model, helped to take support from Campbell, getting 20 percent of the vote in Campbell’s old turf versus 11 percent in former Ward 3. That, and the fact that there were nearly 3000 more voters in old Ward 3 than in old Ward 4, help to explain how Holyday was returned to city hall.

    Last week, Stephen Holyday was one of four suburban councillors named to the new striking committee that makes recommendations for council appointments to important committees, boards, and commissions. It’s quite clear that John Tory will be continuing an austerity agenda while shutting out urban councillors and progressives from decision making. Stephen Holyday will be an important part of that during the next four years.

    2018 Election - W2.jpgPoll-level results in Ward 2, Etobicoke Centre

    Ward 1 – Etobicoke North
    Candidate Votes Percentage
    Vincent Crisanti 8,654 34.3
    Peter D’Gama 253 1.0
    Naiima Farah 2,262 9.0
    Michael Ford 10,648 42.3
    Michelle Garcia 439 1.7
    Christopher Noor 214 0.9
    Shirish Patel 1,945 7.7
    Carol Royer 642 2.6
    Ward 2 – Etobicoke Centre
    Candidate Total Votes Percentage
    Bill Boersma 258 0.7
    John Campbell 13441 35.5
    Angelo Carnevale 5735 15.1
    Stephen Holyday 14627 38.6
    Erica Kelly 3854 10.2

  • Mapping the council race in Ward 14 — Toronto-Danforth

    Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth, was another ward where two progressive incumbent councillors were forced to run against each other when Toronto City Council was reduced due to Bill 5. Mary Fragedakis represented old Ward 29, the part of the ward north of Danforth Avenue, while Paula Fletcher represented old Ward 30, south of the Danforth. Both are affiliated with the New Democratic Party.

    Fragedakis was first elected in 2010, replacing retiring councillor Case Ootes, a conservative. In that election, she got 41.8 percent of the vote, well ahead of her closest challenger, Jane Pitfield. In 2014, she won every poll in Ward 29 and got almost 60 percent of the vote. Fragedakis would have very likely been re-elected in Ward 34 under the 47-ward model, despite the new ward boundary encompassing Rosedale. There were three challengers: Marisol D’Andrea, Ryan Lindsay, and Alexander Pena.

    Paula Fletcher was first elected in 2003, taking Jack Layton’s former seat on council. She nearly lost in 2010 to Liz West, a more conservative candidate, but increased her vote share in 2014, taking 49.6 percent of the vote against West and new challenger Jane Farrow. Fletcher intended to run again in the new Ward 36, which had similar boundaries to her old Ward 30. There were also three challengers: Lanrick Bennett, Chris Budo, and Dixon Chan.

    Under the new 25 ward model, the old Wards 29 and 30 were combined, along with a small section of old Ward 32. Only Alexander Pena withdrew from the race.

    Fletcher was endorsed by the Toronto Star and by the Toronto and York District Labour Council. The Labour Council endorsement was controversial, as its president, John Cartwright, is married to Fletcher. Fragedakis was also previously endorsed by the Labour Council, so it would have been only right for it to withhold its endorsement in Ward 14.

    2018 Election - W14.jpg

    In any case, the Labour Council’s endorsement wouldn’t have mattered. Fletcher won by a wide margin, netting 42.3 percent of the vote, compared to Fragedakis, who came in second place with 26.2 percent. In third place with 19.0 percent of the vote was 22-year old Chris Budo, a financial analyst who recently graduated from Ryerson University. Budo came in second place in 32 polls, and placed first in Poll 005.

    Fletcher was able to count on the support of polls in her home turf. She got 55.7 percent of the vote in former Ward 30, while Fragedakis was only able to get 44 percent of the vote in old Ward 29. There were also over 3500 more voters south of Danforth Avenue than to the north. As we have seen previously in Wards 6, 8, 22, and 25, when two incumbents ran against each other, the advantage was given to the candidate whose former turf has the larger population in the new ward.

    Paula Fletcher is a hardworking and effective member of Toronto City Council, pushing for affordable housing, social justice and environmental issues, and is very attentive to her community. I am glad that she is back on council. But I remain disappointed and disillusioned by the province’s meddling in local affairs that shut out both good incumbents and promising young voices.

    Ward 14 Toronto-Danforth
    Candidate Votes Percent of vote
    Lanrick Bennett 1,935 5.0
    Chris Budo 7,394 19.0
    Dixon Chan 1,100 2.8
    Marisol D’Andrea 429 1.1
    Paula Fletcher 16,468 42.3
    Mary Fragedakis 10,201 26.2
    Ryan Lindsay 413 1.1
    Lawrence Lychowyd 188 0.5
    Chris Marinakis 700 1.8

  • Mapping the council race in Ward 12 – Toronto-St. Paul’s

    As mentioned in my last post, Bill 5, introduced by Premier Doug Ford in the middle of Toronto’s municipal election campaign, had a silver lining: it finally rid Toronto City Council of its greatest embarrassment, Giorgio Mammoliti. Otherwise, though, it had terrible effects. It removed the opportunity for many new voices to get elected to City Council by reducing the number of seats from 47 to just 25. In Ward 12, voters had a very difficult decision to make, as Josh Matlow and Joe Mihevc found themselves running against each other. Previously, both councillors expected to cruise to victory; neither were facing any prominent challengers under the 47-ward model.

    Joe Mihevc, allied with the New Democratic Party, is one of the best arguments against council term limits. Representing old Ward 21, Mihevc has been a very popular and effective community representative. Ward 21 includes wealthy neighbourhoods such as Cedarvale, Wychwood Park, and the west half of Forest Hill. It also includes more modest neighbourhoods north of St. Clair Avenue and west of Bathurst Street. Two of Mihevc’s signature accomplishments were championing the St. Clair Avenue streetcar right-of-way and the Wychwood Barns project, where a former TTC streetcar yard was transformed into a wonderful park, art space, and community hub.

    Josh Matlow, a Liberal, was elected to City Council in 2010 in old Ward 22. Matlow’s ward includes much of Toronto’s midtown area, affluent neighbourhoods such as Deer Park, Rathnally, and the eastern half of Forest Hill, as well as highrise apartments near Yonge and Eglinton and along Davisville Avenue. Matlow started his first term as an idealistic centrist, but made his mark as a sharp and informed critic of Rob Ford and John Tory, especially the Scarborough Subway.

    Both Mihevc and Matlow became well-known for their involvement in local and city-wide issues. Mihevc has been very active in public health and anti-poverty matters. While Matlow is well-known for pushing for smarter transit infrastructure, he was also busy managing growth in his ward, especially in the Yonge-Eglinton area. Both have been very active in their wards, working on community improvements which make it so unfortunate that only one of the two could be re-elected.

    Though Joe Mihevc is well to the political left of John Tory, the mayor backed Mihevc. This wasn’t surprising given the amount of bad blood between Tory and Josh Matlow. The mayor robocalled for Mihevc, like he did for Brad Bradford in Ward 19, and Mark Grimes in Ward 3.

    But the voters in new Ward 8 chose Josh Matlow by a comfortable margin. Matlow got 51.6 percent of the vote to Mihevc’s 42.1 percent. The other four candidates shared the remaining 6.3 percent of the vote. This was one council race the mayor couldn’t influence.

    2018-election-w12

    This result had more to do with geography than anything else. Both Mihevc and Matlow lost parts of their old wards due to the new boundaries — the part of Ward 22 east of Mount Pleasant Road moved to Ward 15, while the part of old Ward 21 north of Eglinton Avenue went to Ward 8. Mihevc was able to count on the support of 61 percent of the voters in former Ward 21, made up of 27 polls. Mihevc also came first in five of the six polls located in former Ward 15, west of Oakwood Avenue. Matlow placed first in only five of the 33 polls west of Oakwood Avenue, and tied with Mihevc in two.

    But there were 39 polls in former Ward 22, Matlow’s turf, where he remained especially popular, getting 66.4 percent of the vote there, and placing first in every poll. The advance poll heavily favoured Matlow as well.

    Doug Ford’s late-stage meddling made the 2018 election incredibly unfair, especially as candidates scrambled late to run in much larger wards. Matlow won because the new Ward 8 had a larger electorate from his old ward, rather than Mihevc’s. This wasn’t fair. But Bill 5 wasn’t meant to be fair.

    But by sending Josh Matlow back to City Council, instead of a more conciliatory Joe Mihevc, John Tory won’t have such an easy time getting his agenda through.

    Ward 12 Toronto-St. Paul’s
    Candidate Total votes Percentage
    Elizabeth Cook 908 2.3
    Artur Langu 290 0.7
    Ian Lipton 930 2.4
    Josh Matlow 20371 51.6
    Joe Mihevc 16634 42.1
    Bob Murphy 342 0.9

    Note: This post is revised from a previous version to better describe some of the community work done by city councillors. 

  • Toronto election 2018: no surprises

    Last night, there were some disappointments and one or two bright spots in the results of Toronto’s municipal election, but there were no big surprises.

    It was disappointing to see voter turnout drop. In 2014, 54.7% of eligible voters turned out. There was a three-way mayoral race between John Tory, Doug Ford, and Olivia Chow. This year, only 41% of eligible voters came out. This was no surprise: the election was tarnished by Premier Ford’s vindictive Bill 5, which cut the number of wards from 47 to 25, in the middle of the campaign.

    While I was very happy to see former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat declare her candidacy in response to Tory’s inadequate response to Bill 5, Keesmaat didn’t have the time or the organization to compete against Tory. She took less than 25% of the vote and Tory came in first place in all 25 wards.

    It was also hard to see many good local politicians defeated by fellow councillors in the new larger boundaries. It was difficult to see Josh Matlow and Joe Mihevc run against each other (Matlow won in the end). I would have also liked to see new voices, including Tiffany Ford and Amber Morley, do better. There are only four persons of colour on the new council. As Toronto Star columnist Ed Keenan points out, this is the same as the number of Michaels elected.

    But at least Giorgio Mammoliti is gone.

    The balance of power on the smaller 25-ward Toronto City Council is similar to the old 44-ward council. By my count, there are eight left-leaning councillors, five swing votes, and eleven conservatives. John Tory leans conservative, and he will need the support of 14 councillors to get items passed.

    Progressives (8):

    • Shelley Carroll (Ward 17)
    • Joe Cressy (Ward 10)
    • John Filion (Ward 18)
    • Paula Fletcher (Ward 14)
    • Mike Layton (Ward 11)
    • Josh Matlow (Ward 12)
    • Gord Perks (Ward 4)
    • Anthony Perruzza (Ward 7)
    • Kristyn Wong-Tam (Ward 13)

    Swing votes (5):

    • Paul Ainslie (Ward 24)
    • Ana Bailão (Ward 9)
    • Brad Bradford (Ward 19)
    • Mike Colle (Ward 8)
    • Jennifer McKelvie (Ward 25)

    Conservatives (11):

    • Gary Crawford (Ward 20)
    • Michael Ford (Ward 1)
    • Mark Grimes (Ward 3)
    • Stephen Holyday (Ward 2)
    • Jim Karygiannis (Ward 22)
    • Cynthia Lai (Ward 25)
    • Denzil Minnan-Wong (Ward 16)
    • Frances Nunziata (Ward 5)
    • James Pasternak (Ward 6)
    • Jaye Robinson (Ward 15)
    • Michael Thompson (Ward 21)

    Despite these three simplistic labels, it’s impossible to predict how each vote may go, and how Mayor Tory will tackle new challenges brought on by the Ford government and the fiscal iceberg.

    In the next few weeks, after the official election results are released, I’ll delve into the numbers and map the more interesting ward races, if not all 25 wards.

  • The final days of a brutal municipal election

    IMG_8629Toronto’s municipal election will take place in a few days, on Monday, October 22. A few months ago, I was energized by the possibilities a 47 ward council would bring, with several open races where new voices could be elected. I was looking forward to seeing Dan Fox win on his second try in North York, after an impressive run in 2014 against long-time incumbent David Shiner. I was excited to see Tiffany Ford’s campaign take on Giorgio Mammoliti. Downtown, three new wards would make room for new faces like Chris Moise. Meanwhile, several incumbents, including Janet Davis, Mary-Margaret McMahon, and John Filion were planning to retire.

    The mayoral race was going to be a snooze, with John Tory sleepwalking his way to a second term but at least the council races would be interesting.

    So much for that.

    This municipal election is a sham. When Premier Doug Ford suddenly announced that he was going to introduce legislation to reduce Toronto’s council size from 47 to 25 — in the middle of the election campaign — it threw everything into chaos. Candidates who signed up to run in wards with a population of 50,000 to 60,000 were now forced to decide whether to run in a ward with nearly twice the population and against new opponents. Incumbents were now running against each other. Candidates had run in good faith, raised money, appealed to volunteers, and printed materials. It was no way to run a fair election.

    Though a court ruling overturning the result briefly provided relief and elation, Ford’s threat of using the Notwithstanding Clause to re-introduce legislation, and an appeal court’s ruling ensured that Toronto would run a compromised election with only 25 wards. Good people like Fox, Moise, Kyle Ashley, and Ausma Malik understandably dropped out of the council race. Others, like Tiffany Ford, Lanrick Bennett, Kevin Vuong, and Lekan Olawoye decided to continue what they started, even if it meant running in a tougher race. Meanwhile, John Filion jumped back into the race, while Josh Colle dropped out. His father, former MPP Mike Colle, jumped in.

    Doug Ford’s vindictive meddling sucked the energy out of the election; turnout at advance polls is down significantly from the last election despite the same number of days. About 124,000 voters cast a ballot in the advance polls held between Wednesday, October 10 and Sunday October 14, down from 161,000 who voted in advance in 2014.

    It’s depressing, but it’s still important to vote. There are lots of good people worth supporting even though it sometimes means picking one of several worthy candidates in a single ward. There is also the opportunity to remove some of Toronto’s worst councillors. And at least there’s a higher profile mayoral race, now with former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat challenging Tory.

    Here are several candidates worth supporting:

    Kristyn Wong-Tam: In her first two terms, Wong-Tam has proven to be one of council’s hardest workers, balancing constituency work with social activism. She represents the east side of Toronto’s downtown core, including the financial district, Moss Park, Yorkville, and Church-Wellesley Village, all fast-growing areas with lots of new development planned or underway.

    Under the old 47-ward model, Wong-Tam’s re-election would have been guaranteed, but now she is running against former provincial cabinet minister and mayoral candidate George Smitherman and appointed councillor Lucy Troisi. There are 19 candidates in total running in Ward 13, Toronto Centre.

    Troisi, who replaced the late Pam McConnell in 2017, was backed by council’s right wing and has proven to be a reliable Tory ally on council. Last summer, when Premier Doug Ford moved to cut Toronto Council to 25 wards, Troisi wasn’t willing to fight. Like all council appointees, Troisi promised not to run for election if appointed, but has since reneged on that promise. Meanwhile, George Smitherman, who lost to Rob Ford in 2010, has drawn controversy for running a negative campaign, including targeting an affordable housing complex on Sherbourne.

    Lekan Olawoye: Running in Ward 5, York South-Weston, Olawoye has proven to be a great community leader. In 2014, he ran in the old Ward 12 against Frank Di Giorgio, getting over 20% of the vote. I met Olawoye and his team after a mayoral debate in 2014, and I came away impressed. This time, Olawoye, an executive at MaRS, will be running against incumbents Di Giorgio and Frances Nunziata. Di Giorgio and Nunziata are both long-time conservative councillors and allies of Mayors Doug Ford and John Tory. Neither have represented the lower-income area effectively over their many years in office.

    Shelley Carroll: I was hoping that Shelley Carroll would be elected MPP in the new riding of Don Valley North. She resigned her council seat to run in the June election, leaving a vacancy on council. She is a progressive Liberal with lots of municipal experience, including a stint as former mayor David Miller’s budget chief. Carroll would have been a valuable member of the Liberal caucus, especially if the party needed to rebuild after the 2018 election. Happily, she will be running for council again in Ward 17, Don Valley North.

    There are also several awful councillors who might be turfed this year.

    Giorgio Mammoliti: First elected to municipal politics in 1995 after serving one term as MPP, Mammoliti has been best known for his attention-grabbing stunts, his outrageous statements, and his disregard for many of his constituents. He barely even shows up to work. Earlier this year, The Toronto Star reported that Mammoliti missed nearly half of all council votes in 2018, the worst record among all 44 councillors. During the 2014-2018 term, he missed 43.1 percent of all votes.

    Mammoliti has been in trouble several times for campaign finance violations, and has been under police investigation twice. Once for olding an illegal $80,000 fundraiser last year attended by lobbyists, developers and other businesspeople, the other for his involvement in a dubious land deal.

    Under the 47 ward model, there was a promising challenger who looked like she could beat City Council’s resident troll: Tiffany Ford. Ford, elected in 2014 as a TDSB trustee, is a local resident, entrepreneur, and community activist. She is still running in the 25 ward election, but is also now against left-leaning incumbent Anthony Perruzza, and Deanna Sgro, the daughter of Liberal MP Judy Sgro. Deanna ran into trouble with the Law Society of Upper Canada in 2013 for questionable debt collection practices. While Perruzza would certainly be an improvement to Mammoliti, I prefer Tiffany Ford.

    Mark Grimes: First elected to council in 2003, Grimes has been known for improperly backing developers in his ward, getting in trouble with the city’s integrity commissioner. Grimes has voted in favour of cuts to transit, the library system, and road safety improvements. Infrastructure has not kept up with massive growth in the Humber Bay Shores neighbourhood. In 2014, John Tory’s campaign supported Grimes’ re-election bid, despite the councillor’s poor record. But he’s been a reliable vote for the mayor on council. Grimes’ friend and ally Justin Di Ciano decided against running in 2018; the two would have otherwise faced off against each other.

    Luckily, Amber Morley, who has been very active in the community, working at a community health centre and at city hall, is running to beat Grimes. Pamela Gough, currently a TDSB trustee, would be another solid choice to replace Grimes.

    With Mammoliti and Grimes defeated, Toronto will be better off.

    Unfortunately, without ranked ballots, it is more difficult to defeat long time incumbents or even underperforming rookies such as Christin Carmichael Greb. In 2018, Carmichael Greb will be running in Ward 8, Eglinton Lawrence against Mike Colle, Dyanoosh Youssefi (who came in second third place to Carmichael Greb in 2014), and Beth Levy. In Ward 7, the anti-Mammoliti vote could be split between several candidates, which could allow him to win with less than 30% of ballots cast.

    The reduced wards has resulted in some very difficult and unfortunate choices as well. In Ward 12, Toronto-St. Paul’s, long-time progressive councillor Joe Mihevc is facing off against centrist Josh Matlow, both great councillors despite their differences. Mayor Tory endorsed Mihevc, probably because Matlow has been Tory’s harshest critic on council, largely because of the Scarborough subway extension. Either councillor, each very hard working and attentive to their constituents, will be missed. Another difficult decision is in Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth, where incumbents Paula Fletcher and Mary Fragedakis are running against each other, with worthy challengers such as Lanrick Bennett having to compete for attention and votes.

    This election has felt anti-climatic thanks to Doug Ford’s meddling. Many good people were shut out of the election, or have a much greater challenge running in a 25 ward election. But I remain inspired by some of the people who decided to continue to run, and at least there are worthy people — veterans and fresh faces — worth voting for on Monday October 22.

    Correction: Dyanoosh Youssefi came in third, not second place in Ward 16 in 2014. 

  • Why closing Toronto’s public golf courses is a boon to the public

    IMG_8013-001.JPGDentonia Park Golf Course

    Yesterday, Thanksgiving Monday, mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat proposed closing three of Toronto’s five municipally-owned golf courses. Keesmaat, Toronto’s previous chief planner, pointed out that the municipal golf courses operate at a loss, and that $10 million is allocated for improvements to those three courses. Furthermore, she intends to consult the local communities to best re-program the sites to address local wants and needs for the opened-up greenspace.

    The three courses are:

    • Dentonia Park Golf Course, located on Victoria Park Avenue north of Danforth Avenue, next to Victoria Park subway station, in the Massey Creek ravine.
    • Don Valley Golf Course, located in the West Don Valley near Yonge Street and Wilson Avenue, near York Mills Station. It extends under Highway 401.
    • Scarlett Woods Golf Course, located near Eglinton Avenue and Scarlett Road on the Humber River.

    Tam O’Shanter Golf Course, near Sheppard Avenue and Kennedy Road in Scarborough, and the Humber Valley Golf Course in north Etobicoke, are not mentioned in Keesmaat’s proposal.

    I’m very happy that Keesmaat has put forward this bold idea. Despite the municipal ownership of these lands, they are fenced off from residents. For example, Dentonia Park is located in a lower income neighbourhood made of many high-rise rental buildings. As Toronto continues to grow in population, greenspace reserved for golfers could be put to better uses such as sports fields (soccer and cricket, especially), playgrounds, natural wetlands and woodlands, and public paths.

    Golf is an expensive leisure activity with a large environmental footprint: the tending of golf courses require lots of water and pesticides. (Golf courses are exempted from a provincial ban on certain types of pesticides.) They may not adequately address the local community’s needs either, especially in lower income areas. Interest in playing golf is waning in North America as well. It makes sense to open up these publicly owned lands.

    Golf courses get in the way of potential linear parks. As I mentioned before, the Don Valley Golf Course blocks access to Earl Bales Park from the south. Opening up the grounds to the general public would provide a continuous path from York Mills Station to Bathurst and Sheppard and beyond. This would provide a safe and pleasant walking and cycling route across Highway 401, compared to the unpleasant and dangerous crossings at the interchanges with Yonge Street and Avenue Road.

    Dentonia Park Golf Course sits in between the path through Warden Woods and the Taylor Creek Ravine. If opened to the public, there could be a car-free path for pedestrians and cyclists all the way from Warden and St. Clair Avenues all the way downtown via the Don Valley trail system.

    Keesmaat’s plan to close money-losing, poorly-used golf courses is a great idea, much like her promise not to go ahead with the costly replacement of the eastern section of the Gardiner Expressway, instead going with the locally preferred boulevard option. Both of these ideas may not be popular with some, but they are both fiscally and environmentally sound.

  • How do you solve a problem like Mammoliti?

    Giorgio Mammoliti, long-time Toronto City Council, is a great poster child for what’s wrong with municipal politics. Arrogant and obnoxous, Councillor Mammoliti has made a name for himself by flouting council rules and election laws, by demeaning his constituents, picking fights with other members of council, and pursuing media attention with crass stunts and outrageous comments. Toronto would be a far better place without him at City Hall. His 23 years in municipal office have made him a convincing argument in favour of term limits, but I don’t agree that it’s the best way of getting rid of troublesome politicians.

    Mammoliti has been in municipal office since 1995, when he was elected to North York City Council. Before that, he was elected an MPP for Yorkview as a member of the provincial NDP. He is well-known for his socially conservative views against LGBT rights, social housing, youth recreation, and. In 1994, he voted in opposition to his party in the provincial legislature against allowing same-sex couples spousal insurance benefits.

    At city hall, his attention-grabbing antics have made him well-known. In 1999, he ripped off his shirt in front of news cameras to protest a decision permitting a clothing-optional section of beach on the Toronto Islands. In 2014, Mammoliti offensively called Parkdale, a lower-income neighbourhood, a “pedophile district.”

    Even though the Jane-Finch area, which is partially represented by Mammoliti, has a high proportion of visible minorities, high rates of poverty and underemployment, and poor transit access, Mammoliti has undermined rather than improved things for the community. He strongly opposes the Finch West LRT project that will provide an improved connection to the subway at Keele Street and Humber College. He has called residents of local community housing developments “cockroaches” in interviews for the Toronto Sun and alt-right Rebel Media. In a recent re-election advertisement, he posed in front of a nearby TCHC development with a sledgehammer in hand; the text of the ad read “saving our community begins with knocking down social housing. You deserve better!”

    This week, the Toronto Star reported that Mammoliti missed nearly half of all council votes in 2018, the worst record among all 44 councillors. During the 2014-2018 term, he missed 43.1 percent of all votes.

    The Ontario Provincial Police is investigating a failed Toronto Parking Authority land  deal in Ward 7 that Mammoliti had an involvement in. Allegedly, the councillor threatened a senior city staffer to recommend that the sale go ahead in a report to council. Auditors determined that the five acre site at Finch Avenue and Arrow Road was overvalued by $2.63 million. Mammoliti was previously interested in erecting a giant flagpole on that site.

    It’s not the first time he’s been under police investigation. In 2013, he held a $5000-a-table fundraiser in Vaughan, despite rules forbidding raising funds outside of election campaigns. Several prominent lobbyists were in attendance at the event, which raised $80,000. In 2014, Council docked him three months’ pay, the strictest penalty available.

    The people of northwest Toronto deserve much better than Giorgio Mammoliti. But one solution championed by some political observers — term limits — isn’t the right one, even if it would finally remove such a toxic member of council.

    Last month, Spacing’s John Lorinc argued that term limits would be “…the magic bullet reform that would blow open local government to new voices.” While term limits might be an easy way to get rid of Giorgio Mammoliti, it wouldn’t fully solve the incumbency advantage. Instead term limits would remove some of Council’s brightest and hardest working members, without guaranteeing a more diverse council with fresh new voices.

    Name recognition does not only come from years of incumbency, it may also come from a famous family name and political connections. Many “new voices” elected to city council when an incumbent chooses not to run for re-election are councillors’ constituency assistants, often given access to contact lists and the organization built up over the years. Or they’re politicians previously elected from other levels of government. Or they’re the sons, daughters, spouses, or in one case, the nephew, of a well-known public figure.

    Councillors Josh Colle, Joe Cressy, Stephen Holyday, Mike Layton, and David Shiner are the sons of previous municipal politicians. Councillor Cristin Carmicahel Greb is the daughter of former Conservative MP John Carmichael, Frances Nunziata’s brother John was a Liberal MP in the 1980s and 1990s, and Councillor Michelle Holland is married to former Liberal MPP Lorenzo Berardinetti, and is running for re-election as Michelle Holland-Berardinetti.

    And there’s the Ford family.

    In September 2014, Rob Ford, citing his poor health, announced that he was no longer running for mayor. His brother Doug, who was at that point councillor for Ward 2, but was not running for re-election,would run for mayor in Rob’s place. Rob and Doug’s nephew, Michael Ford, who was running for councilor, stepped aside for Rob and ran for trustee instead. Michael Ford changed his last name from Stirpe (his father’s surname) in February 2014 to take advantage of the famous Ford name.

    After Rob died, Michael Ford ran in the Ward 2 by-election and won by an easy margin. And Doug Ford, taking advantage of the folksy populist image his brother Rob fostered, ran for the leadership of the Ontario PCs and became premier in 2018. Doug Ford’s father, Doug Ford Sr., was an Ontario PC MPP from 1995 to 1999.

    On July 25, the week that nominations were scheduled to close (and two days before Premier Doug Ford announced his rushed and vindictive plan to cut council to 25 seats), Councillor Josh Colle (who was first elected in 2010 and served just two terms) announced that he was not going to run for re-election in his North York ward. But his father, Mike Colle, recently defeated as a Liberal MPP, would run instead. Term limits would not have stopped father and son from swapping places every eight or twelve years.

    While term limits would prevent a Norm Kelly, Frances Nunziata, or Giorgio Mammoliti from spending decades on council, it would also stop popular and well-regarded representatives such as Joe Mihevc from continuing to serve their communities. Institutional memory would also be lost on Council. Councillors Gord Perks, Paula Fletcher, Michael Thompson, Paul Ainslie, and many others would also be required to leave office this year if a three-term limit were imposed. Gord Perks’ knowledge of council procedure and his defense of the Parkdale neighbourhood would be sorely missed.

    Term limits also do not prevent lacklustre candidates from being elected.

    In 2014, Cristin Carmichael Greb was elected in Ward 16 with only 17.4% of the vote, a 1.2% margin over her nearest competitor. This was despite the support of John Tory’s campaign. Carmichael Greb has proven to be an ineffective councillor. In Ward 5, Justin Di Ciano has made a name for himself opposing democratic measures such as ranked ballots, new ward boundaries, and supporting a questionable development proposal backed by a firm with which he has close ties. Like Mammoliti, Councillor Di Ciano has found himself under OPP investigation.

    I continue to prefer other methods of limiting the power of incumbency. Ranked ballots would be a good first step. In 2014, Ward 12 incumbent Frank Di Giorgio, in office since 2000, won with only 29% of the vote in a four-way race. Ranked ballots could have made a difference there.

    I also believe that all adult permanent residents, not just Canadian citizens, should be able to vote in municipal elections. As municipalities have the responsibility for delivering local services, such as police, parks and recreation, roads, transit, libraries, and water and waste services, all residents have a stake in how they are being delivered. Extending the municipal franchise could help community engagement, especially in neighbourhoods poorly represented by indifferent or antagonistic city councillors. In contrast, non-resident property owners are permitted to vote. Council voted to request the province to allow non-citizen voting in 2013, but the province was under no obligation to respond to the city’s request.

    I was hoping that in 2018, Giorgio Mammoliti would finally be defeated. TDSB trustee Tiffany Ford is a promising young candidate that had a good shot of defeating him under the new 47-ward model. However, with the 25 ward boundaries imposed by Premier Doug Ford, Mammoliti will be up against more challengers, including fellow incumbent Anthony Perruzza. Perhaps Perruzza or Tiffany Ford will still be able to defeat him.

    While term limits sound like a great solution for solving a problem like Mammoliti, they aren’t necessarily a great solution for improving local democracy.

  • Why Doug Ford’s plan for 25 Toronto wards is an attack on local democracy

    Ridings and 47 Wards.jpgMap of Doug Ford’s proposed 25 wards and the City Council-approved 47 ward boundaries

    Late last week, the newly elected Ontario Progressive Conservative government announced that they would be imposing a new electoral map on the City of Toronto, a decision that would eliminate the new 47 wards approved by Toronto City Council, replacing them with the same 25 boundaries used by the federal and provincial governments.

    It’s very clear that Premier Doug Ford’s plan, which requires a new piece of legislation, ironically titled the “Better Local Government Act,” is vindictive and mean-spirited because it only affects the City of Toronto, which rejected Doug Ford’s 2014 mayoral bid. It quashes the hopes of many young, racialized, and progressive candidates looking to change the make up of a council that has generally supported Mayor John Tory’s agenda. It is unfair to candidates that ran in good faith, started campaigns, raised funds, and spent money hiring staff, purchasing materials, and renting campaign offices.

    But most of all, Ford’s actions are an attack on local democracy because of the haste with which they are being made, at the end of the nomination period for those approved 47 wards. They ignore the years of study by independent experts and several rounds of public consultations. They also benefit Toronto’s suburban areas, which are growing at a far slower rate than downtown Toronto, North York Centre and Etobicoke’s waterfront area, which will be disproportionately affected by this arbitrary decision.

    Each new ward was designed to have an average population of 61,000, with a population range of between 51,800 and 72,000 (+/- 15%). They were designed to last for four election cycles, to be re-drawn before the 2034 election.

    It is worth noting that the independent experts looked at using the 25 federal/provincial boundaries twice. In the first study, they were rejected early on because they would not “meet the tests of effective representation.” The federal boundaries, which are also adopted by the province of Ontario, are based on population counts from the 2011 Census, and are already seven years out-of-date, while the consultants were tasked with developing new ward boundaries to last 16 years. Even a 50-ward solution (which mimics the old 44 wards based on the 22 federal ridings that were established in 1996 and came into effect with the 1997 federal election) would result in severe variations in population.

    Ridings and 2026 pop variation.jpgHow the 25 ridings, if used for Toronto’s ward boundaries, will vary in population by 2026

    After Tory’s Executive Committee tasked the Toronto Ward Boundary Review team to re-examine options that would see fewer than 47 councillors elected in 2018, they re-examined using the 25 ward boundaries. They found that in 2026, three of those wards — Toronto Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Spadina-Fort York — would have populations over 30% higher than the ward average in 2026. Willowdale and University-Rosedale would also have had much larger populations than the city average.

    The review team also looked at a 26-ward option that mostly maintained the riding boundaries but added a new ward downtown out of the Toronto Centre and Spadina-Fort York constituencies and adjusted boundaries in southern Etobicoke. Even then, Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would still have populations over 20% higher than the city-wide average. Despite making some adjustments for population growth, this option would have not have corresponded with some ridings, and was also not recommended.

    26 Wards and 2026 pop variation.jpgHow the modified 26 ridings, if used for Toronto’s ward boundaries, would have varied in population in 2026

    For those reasons, and to support local representation, the 47-ward solution was once again recommended, and was approved by City Council in November 2016. Councillors Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) and Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7) then appealed the new boundaries to the Ontario Municipal Board, but they were dismissed. The 47-ward solution has survived despite it all.

    Mayor Tory may have brought back decorum to the mayor’s office after an embarrassing period under Doug Ford’s brother Rob, but he has pushed an austerity agenda, and has failed to show leadership on police reform, wasteful infrastructure spending, and safe streets for pedestrians and cyclists. His initial reaction, to call for a referendum on Ford’s plan to cut Toronto’s council, was a characteristically weak response; he was later pushed into supporting a legal challenge by an angry public. Meanwhile, some of Tory’s allies, like Di Ciano, David Shiner, and Glenn De Baeremaeker, support Ford’s actions.

    Ford’s attack on local democracy is an insult to candidates who have already put their names forward for election and launched their campaigns. It undermines the City of Toronto’s legislated responsibility to decide its own ward boundaries. And it will only exasperate existing disparities in council representation.