The Scarborough Six: mapping the results of the 2018 election

In 2014, Scarborough elected ten city councillors. Since that election, one councillor, Ron Moeser, died in office, while two others, Raymond Cho and Chin Lee, resigned to run for provincial office. Cho, representing the Ontario PCs, was successful, while Lee, running for the Liberals, was not. Neethan Shan was elected in Ward 42 in a by-election to fill Cho’s seat. Jim Hart was appointed in Ward 44 by council after Moeser’s death, and Miganoush Megardichian was appointed in Ward 41.

With the new 47 ward model approved by city council for the 2018 election, Scarborough was allocated the same number of wards, though boundaries shifted to reflect changes in population. Two of the new wards – 44 and 47 – had no incumbent running, opening those wards up to new voices.

With Premier Doug Ford’s move to cut city council to just 25 wards, Scarborough went down to just six wards. In Wards 20 and 22, incumbents faced off against each other. Councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker, famous for his support of the Scarborough subway extension, decided that the odds were against him and withdrew his candidacy. De Baeremaeker’s old ward was cut in half and redistributed evenly to new Wards 21 and 24. Had he decided to run again, it would have meant running against fellow council veterans Michael Thompson or Paul Ainslie, both of whom had a geographic advantage in not losing any of their former territories.

I previously mapped the results in Ward 22, where Jim Karygiannis defeated Norm Kelly, Ward 23, where conservative businesswoman Cynthia Lai won, and Ward 25, where Jennifer McKelvie defeated incumbent Neethan Shan.

Of the remaining three races in Scarborough, only Ward 20 was interesting. There, incumbents Michelle Holland-Berardinetti and Gary Crawford ran against eight challengers. In Wards 21 and 24, Councillors Thompson and Ainslie won with over 65 percent of the vote and nearly every poll. I did not map the results of those two races.

Ward 20

Ward 20 saw two right-leaning councillors, Gary Crawford and Michelle Holland-Berardinetti face off against each other. Both were reliable Tory allies; Crawford served as budget chief under both Rob Ford and John Tory, while Holland-Berardinetti was council’s innovation advocate.

Crawford was first elected in Ward 36 in 2010 after serving as public school trustee. He previously ran for the provincial Progressive Conservatives in 2007. Ward 36, whose southern boundary was Lake Ontario, was Scarborough’s most affluent ward and included the Scarborough Bluffs. Holland-Berardinetti, the spouse of former Liberal MPP Lorenzo Berardinetti, was also first elected in 2010, representing Ward 35. Both councillors were re-elected by wide margins in 2014.

Bill 5 resulted in Wards 35 and 36 merging, with only a small part of old Ward 36 shifting to new Ward 24. The number of voters in each of the two former wards was almost equal, but Crawford won a very a tight race; only 411 votes separated the two incumbents.

Though Mohsin Bhuiyan originally registered to run against Crawford in the 47-ward model, he placed first in five polls in former Ward 35, in the Dentonia Park and Scarborough Junction neighbourhoods. He placed third overall, with 10 percent of the vote, but he drew more votes from Holland-Berardinetti than from Crawford. Suman Roy, a food advocate endorsed by the Toronto Star and NOW Magazine, was only able to get 5.4 percent of the vote, coming in fifth.

2018 Election - W20.jpg

Ward 20 Scarborough Southwest
Candidate Votes Percent
Gerard Arbour 1,187 4.0
Mohsin Bhuiyan 2,910 10.0
Paulina Corpuz 1,813 6.2
Gary Crawford 10,505 35.7
Michelle Holland-Berardinetti 10,094 34.3
John Letonja 160 0.5
Robert McDermott 367 1.3
Suman Roy 1,582 5.4
Curtis Smith 541 1.8
Bruce Waters 246 0.8

Ward 21

Michael Thompson was first elected to Toronto City Council in 2003. In the 2014 election, he won with over 80 percent of the vote. In the larger new ward, the share of the vote fell to 69 percent. While he’s a thoughtful conservative and a good constituency councillor, Thompson also supported Doug Ford’s unilateral cut to city council.

Ward 21 Scarborough Centre
Candidate Votes Percent
Paul Beatty 1,638 6.8
Vivek Bhatt 993 4.1
Fawzi Bidawi 1,035 4.3
Zia Choudhary 1,014 4.2
Randy Bucao 949 4.0
Ismail Khan 311 1.3
Arfan Naveed 349 1.5
Raphael Rosch 545 2.3
Nur Saifullah 132 0.6
Michael Thompson 16,542 69.1
Zamir ul hassan Nadeem 448 1.9

Ward 24

Paul Ainslie was first elected to Toronto City Council in 2006, after being appointed to council in a neighbouring ward in 2005. A principled centrist, Ainslie served on Tory’s executive committee and was re-appointed in 2018. Ainslie won in 2018 with two-thirds of the vote in Ward 24, placing first in all but three polls.

Ward 24 Scarborough-Guildwood
Candidate Votes Percent
Paul Ainslie 15,131 66.8
Itohan Evbagharu 132 0.6
Reddy Muttukuru 1,323 5.8
Priyanth Nallaratnam 1,896 8.4
Keiosha Ross 405 1.8
Sajid Saleh 841 3.7
Michelle Spencer 1,933 8.5
Emery Warner 393 1.7
Morlan Washington 592 2.6
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2 Responses to The Scarborough Six: mapping the results of the 2018 election

  1. Adam Sobolak says:

    In Ward 20, the Bhuiyan vote was closely shadowed by that for mayoral candidate Tofazzel Haque (who got 2.66% of the vote here: Saron G. got 2.02%)–a reflection of this being a heart of the Bangladeshi community in Toronto. (A more “mainstream” reflection of that being recently elected NDP MPP Doly Begum)

  2. Kevin Reidy says:

    Scarborough had 10 of the 44 seats (or 23%) on the old council. In the approved 47 member council they still would have 10 so their share would drop to 21%. Under the Ford imposed plan Scarborough would have 6 of 25 seats increasing their share of seats to 24%

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