Tag: 2018 Election

Mapping the 2018 candidates for Toronto City Council, Bill 5 edition (updated)

Toronto City Council voting on a legal challenge to Bill 5, August 20, 2018

September 21 update: nominations are now closed, and I updated the map. Councillor Cesar Palacio dropped out in Davenport; this practically ensures that fellow incumbent Ana Bailao will be re-elected. There are 19 candidates in Toronto Centre, where popular incumbent Kristyn Wong-Tam is facing former mayoral candidate and provincial minister George Smitherman and appointed councillor Lucy Troisi.

I’ll add a proper update later this weekend.

September 19 update: the Ontario Court of Appeal ruled in the province’s favour today, issuing a stay of the September 10 Ontario Superior Court ruling against Bill 5. So with just over a month before election day, October 22, there’s now certainty that the 25 wards imposed by a vindictive Premier Ford will be used.

That puts out a lot of good candidates looking to run in the 47-ward structure. Candidates Dan Fox in North York, and Chris Moise and Ausma Malik downtown, will not run. This is unfortunate and very disappointing.

According to city hall reporter Arianne Robinson, incumbent councillors Paula Fletcher and Mary Fragedakis will run against each other in Toronto-Danforth.

Without the City of Toronto’s online list of candidates live, I haven’t been able to make authoritative updates to the 25-ward map of candidates, but I have been trying to keep up with the news. Once the city’s list is live, I’ll make a definitive update.

September 6 update: Councillor John Filion, who previously announced his retirement from municipal politics, registered to run in Ward 18 – Willowdale in the new 25 ward election. He felt his registration was necessary to prevent a non-progressive candidate from running (possibly David Shiner) and winning against relatively unknown candidates. It’s a terribly unfortunate result of going to 25 wards from 47 — it shuts out many fresh new faces and favours incumbents and other politicians with strong name recognition.

Because of rapid population growth in the North Yonge corridor, Filion’s North York ward was essentially being split into two. Filion had endorsed his executive assistant, Markus O’Brien Fehr for the Ward 28 council seat, and Lily Cheng on Ward 29. If the challenge to Bill 5 is successful, and the 47 wards are restored for the 2018 election, Filion will not run.

In other developments, the first battle between two progressive-leaning incumbents under the 25 ward model has emerged in Ward 12 – Toronto-St. Paul’s. Josh Matlow, an outspoken critic of John Tory’s transit plans, is running against longtime incumbent Joe Mihevc. Matlow is affiliated with the Liberals, while Mihevc is aligned with the NDP.

There are now nine wards in which two sitting councillors are running against each other.

I have updated the 25 ward map below.

Bill 5, the so-called “Better Local Government Act, 2018,” was passed by the Ontario Legislature on August 14. This legislation reduces the number of council seats from the 47 wards approved by City Council to just 25, despite three years of study by independent experts and several rounds of public consultations. Passed in just over two weeks from the Premier Doug Ford’s surprise announcement on July 27 — the same day nominations for city council were scheduled to close — Bill 5 disrupted the municipal election campaign already in progress. Two hundred and ninety-two candidates had registered to run in one of the approved 47 wards.

Bill 5 is vindictive, grossly unfair, and sets a bad precedent for provincial meddling in municipal affairs. It only targets the City of Toronto, which rejected Doug Ford’s late run for mayor in 2014, and delivers a blow to hundreds of candidates that registered to run in good faith. But legally, the City of Toronto must follow the province’s edict and elect only 25 councillors with wards based on the current provincial riding boundaries.

Before Bill 5 was announced, there was an excellent chance for renewal at Toronto City Hall. Councillors Janet Davis, John Filion, and Mary-Margaret McMahon announced their retirements, while Shelley Carroll and Chin Lee resigned to run in the June 2018 provincial election. Councillors Ron Moeser and Pam McConnell died in office, replaced by appointees who promised not to stand for election (though Lucy Trosi later broke this promise). Councillor Josh Colle announced that he, too, was not going to run for re-election, but his father, defeated MPP and former councillor Mike Colle, would run instead. Meanwhile, Justin Di Ciano and David Shiner never registered.

With three new wards, this meant that there were up to thirteen open races without an established incumbent. With only 25 wards, all but two wards are guaranteed to have at least one incumbent running for re-election, and at least ten wards with two incumbents running against each other.

On Monday, August 19, nominations opened for any candidate wishing to run in one of the 25 wards. Nominations will close at 2:00 PM on September 14, just over five weeks before election day on October 22. Council candidates who registered under the 47 ward system or the 25 ward system may also withdraw by that date.

There remains a faint hope that a court case, scheduled to be held on Friday August 31 will delay or overturn the provincial legislation, allowing the planned 47-ward election to go ahead.

I expect that many candidates, especially progressive incumbents and challengers not eager to face off against each other, will wait until then to decide. But sadly, it means that great people like Chris Moise, who registered to run in Ward 25, will withdraw from the race.

I will be maintaining and updating a Google map of the 25 ward races, similar to my 47-ward map. This new map appears below.

As of Tuesday, August 28, there are eight wards in which two incumbents are running against each other. For example in Ward 1, Etobicoke North, Ford ally Vincent Crisanti will be running against Michael Ford, nephew of late mayor Rob Ford and Premier Doug Ford.

But downtown, no incumbent councillors or high-profile candidates have registered under the new boundaries. I suspect they, like many of us, are waiting to find out what will happen on August 31, and that if the 25 wards go ahead, we will lose some promising new choices for city council.

September 19, 2018
How do you solve a problem like Mammoliti?

Giorgio Mammoliti, long-time Toronto City Council, is a great poster child for what’s wrong with municipal politics. Arrogant and obnoxous, Councillor Mammoliti has made a name for himself by flouting council rules and election laws, by demeaning his constituents, picking fights with other members of council, and pursuing media attention with crass stunts and outrageous comments. Toronto would be a far better place without him at City Hall. His 23 years in municipal office have made him a convincing argument in favour of term limits, but I don’t agree that it’s the best way of getting rid of troublesome politicians.

Mammoliti has been in municipal office since 1995, when he was elected to North York City Council. Before that, he was elected an MPP for Yorkview as a member of the provincial NDP. He is well-known for his socially conservative views against LGBT rights, social housing, youth recreation, and. In 1994, he voted in opposition to his party in the provincial legislature against allowing same-sex couples spousal insurance benefits.

At city hall, his attention-grabbing antics have made him well-known. In 1999, he ripped off his shirt in front of news cameras to protest a decision permitting a clothing-optional section of beach on the Toronto Islands. In 2014, Mammoliti offensively called Parkdale, a lower-income neighbourhood, a “pedophile district.”

Even though the Jane-Finch area, which is partially represented by Mammoliti, has a high proportion of visible minorities, high rates of poverty and underemployment, and poor transit access, Mammoliti has undermined rather than improved things for the community. He strongly opposes the Finch West LRT project that will provide an improved connection to the subway at Keele Street and Humber College. He has called residents of local community housing developments “cockroaches” in interviews for the Toronto Sun and alt-right Rebel Media. In a recent re-election advertisement, he posed in front of a nearby TCHC development with a sledgehammer in hand; the text of the ad read “saving our community begins with knocking down social housing. You deserve better!”

This week, the Toronto Star reported that Mammoliti missed nearly half of all council votes in 2018, the worst record among all 44 councillors. During the 2014-2018 term, he missed 43.1 percent of all votes.

The Ontario Provincial Police is investigating a failed Toronto Parking Authority land deal in Ward 7 that Mammoliti had an involvement in. Allegedly, the councillor threatened a senior city staffer to recommend that the sale go ahead in a report to council. Auditors determined that the five acre site at Finch Avenue and Arrow Road was overvalued by $2.63 million. Mammoliti was previously interested in erecting a giant flagpole on that site.

It’s not the first time he’s been under police investigation. In 2013, he held a $5000-a-table fundraiser in Vaughan, despite rules forbidding raising funds outside of election campaigns. Several prominent lobbyists were in attendance at the event, which raised $80,000. In 2014, Council docked him three months’ pay, the strictest penalty available.

The people of northwest Toronto deserve much better than Giorgio Mammoliti. But one solution championed by some political observers — term limits — isn’t the right one, even if it would finally remove such a toxic member of council.

Last month, Spacing’s John Lorinc argued that term limits would be “…the magic bullet reform that would blow open local government to new voices.” While term limits might be an easy way to get rid of Giorgio Mammoliti, it wouldn’t fully solve the incumbency advantage. Instead term limits would remove some of Council’s brightest and hardest working members, without guaranteeing a more diverse council with fresh new voices.

Name recognition does not only come from years of incumbency, it may also come from a famous family name and political connections. Many “new voices” elected to city council when an incumbent chooses not to run for re-election are councillors’ constituency assistants, often given access to contact lists and the organization built up over the years. Or they’re politicians previously elected from other levels of government. Or they’re the sons, daughters, spouses, or in one case, the nephew, of a well-known public figure.

Councillors Josh Colle, Joe Cressy, Stephen Holyday, Mike Layton, and David Shiner are the sons of previous municipal politicians. Councillor Cristin Carmicahel Greb is the daughter of former Conservative MP John Carmichael, Frances Nunziata’s brother John was a Liberal MP in the 1980s and 1990s, and Councillor Michelle Holland is married to former Liberal MPP Lorenzo Berardinetti, and is running for re-election as Michelle Holland-Berardinetti.

And there’s the Ford family.

In September 2014, Rob Ford, citing his poor health, announced that he was no longer running for mayor. His brother Doug, who was at that point councillor for Ward 2, but was not running for re-election,would run for mayor in Rob’s place. Rob and Doug’s nephew, Michael Ford, who was running for councilor, stepped aside for Rob and ran for trustee instead. Michael Ford changed his last name from Stirpe (his father’s surname) in February 2014 to take advantage of the famous Ford name.

After Rob died, Michael Ford ran in the Ward 2 by-election and won by an easy margin. And Doug Ford, taking advantage of the folksy populist image his brother Rob fostered, ran for the leadership of the Ontario PCs and became premier in 2018. Doug Ford’s father, Doug Ford Sr., was an Ontario PC MPP from 1995 to 1999.

On July 25, the week that nominations were scheduled to close (and two days before Premier Doug Ford announced his rushed and vindictive plan to cut council to 25 seats), Councillor Josh Colle (who was first elected in 2010 and served just two terms) announced that he was not going to run for re-election in his North York ward. But his father, Mike Colle, recently defeated as a Liberal MPP, would run instead. Term limits would not have stopped father and son from swapping places every eight or twelve years.

While term limits would prevent a Norm Kelly, Frances Nunziata, or Giorgio Mammoliti from spending decades on council, it would also stop popular and well-regarded representatives such as Joe Mihevc from continuing to serve their communities. Institutional memory would also be lost on Council. Councillors Gord Perks, Paula Fletcher, Michael Thompson, Paul Ainslie, and many others would also be required to leave office this year if a three-term limit were imposed. Gord Perks’ knowledge of council procedure and his defense of the Parkdale neighbourhood would be sorely missed.

Term limits also do not prevent lacklustre candidates from being elected.

In 2014, Cristin Carmichael Greb was elected in Ward 16 with only 17.4% of the vote, a 1.2% margin over her nearest competitor. This was despite the support of John Tory’s campaign. Carmichael Greb has proven to be an ineffective councillor. In Ward 5, Justin Di Ciano has made a name for himself opposing democratic measures such as ranked ballots, new ward boundaries, and supporting a questionable development proposal backed by a firm with which he has close ties. Like Mammoliti, Councillor Di Ciano has found himself under OPP investigation.

I continue to prefer other methods of limiting the power of incumbency. Ranked ballots would be a good first step. In 2014, Ward 12 incumbent Frank Di Giorgio, in office since 2000, won with only 29% of the vote in a four-way race. Ranked ballots could have made a difference there.

I also believe that all adult permanent residents, not just Canadian citizens, should be able to vote in municipal elections. As municipalities have the responsibility for delivering local services, such as police, parks and recreation, roads, transit, libraries, and water and waste services, all residents have a stake in how they are being delivered. Extending the municipal franchise could help community engagement, especially in neighbourhoods poorly represented by indifferent or antagonistic city councillors. In contrast, non-resident property owners are permitted to vote. Council voted to request the province to allow non-citizen voting in 2013, but the province was under no obligation to respond to the city’s request.

I was hoping that in 2018, Giorgio Mammoliti would finally be defeated. TDSB trustee Tiffany Ford is a promising young candidate that had a good shot of defeating him under the new 47-ward model. However, with the 25 ward boundaries imposed by Premier Doug Ford, Mammoliti will be up against more challengers, including fellow incumbent Anthony Perruzza. Perhaps Perruzza or Tiffany Ford will still be able to defeat him.

While term limits sound like a great solution for solving a problem like Mammoliti, they aren’t necessarily a great solution for improving local democracy.

September 5, 2018
Why Doug Ford’s plan for 25 Toronto wards is an attack on local democracy

Map of Doug Ford’s proposed 25 wards and the City Council-approved 47 ward boundaries

Late last week, the newly elected Ontario Progressive Conservative government announced that they would be imposing a new electoral map on the City of Toronto, a decision that would eliminate the new 47 wards approved by Toronto City Council, replacing them with the same 25 boundaries used by the federal and provincial governments.

It’s very clear that Premier Doug Ford’s plan, which requires a new piece of legislation, ironically titled the “Better Local Government Act,” is vindictive and mean-spirited because it only affects the City of Toronto, which rejected Doug Ford’s 2014 mayoral bid. It quashes the hopes of many young, racialized, and progressive candidates looking to change the make up of a council that has generally supported Mayor John Tory’s agenda. It is unfair to candidates that ran in good faith, started campaigns, raised funds, and spent money hiring staff, purchasing materials, and renting campaign offices.

But most of all, Ford’s actions are an attack on local democracy because of the haste with which they are being made, at the end of the nomination period for those approved 47 wards. They ignore the years of study by independent experts and several rounds of public consultations. They also benefit Toronto’s suburban areas, which are growing at a far slower rate than downtown Toronto, North York Centre and Etobicoke’s waterfront area, which will be disproportionately affected by this arbitrary decision.

Each new ward was designed to have an average population of 61,000, with a population range of between 51,800 and 72,000 (+/- 15%). They were designed to last for four election cycles, to be re-drawn before the 2034 election.

It is worth noting that the independent experts looked at using the 25 federal/provincial boundaries twice. In the first study, they were rejected early on because they would not “meet the tests of effective representation.” The federal boundaries, which are also adopted by the province of Ontario, are based on population counts from the 2011 Census, and are already seven years out-of-date, while the consultants were tasked with developing new ward boundaries to last 16 years. Even a 50-ward solution (which mimics the old 44 wards based on the 22 federal ridings that were established in 1996 and came into effect with the 1997 federal election) would result in severe variations in population.

How the 25 ridings, if used for Toronto’s ward boundaries, will vary in population by 2026

After Tory’s Executive Committee tasked the Toronto Ward Boundary Review team to re-examine options that would see fewer than 47 councillors elected in 2018, they re-examined using the 25 ward boundaries. They found that in 2026, three of those wards — Toronto Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Spadina-Fort York — would have populations over 30% higher than the ward average in 2026. Willowdale and University-Rosedale would also have had much larger populations than the city average.

The review team also looked at a 26-ward option that mostly maintained the riding boundaries but added a new ward downtown out of the Toronto Centre and Spadina-Fort York constituencies and adjusted boundaries in southern Etobicoke. Even then, Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would still have populations over 20% higher than the city-wide average. Despite making some adjustments for population growth, this option would have not have corresponded with some ridings, and was also not recommended.

How the modified 26 ridings, if used for Toronto’s ward boundaries, would have varied in population in 2026

For those reasons, and to support local representation, the 47-ward solution was once again recommended, and was approved by City Council in November 2016. Councillors Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) and Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7) then appealed the new boundaries to the Ontario Municipal Board, but they were dismissed. The 47-ward solution has survived despite it all.

Mayor Tory may have brought back decorum to the mayor’s office after an embarrassing period under Doug Ford’s brother Rob, but he has pushed an austerity agenda, and has failed to show leadership on police reform, wasteful infrastructure spending, and safe streets for pedestrians and cyclists. His initial reaction, to call for a referendum on Ford’s plan to cut Toronto’s council, was a characteristically weak response; he was later pushed into supporting a legal challenge by an angry public. Meanwhile, some of Tory’s allies, like Di Ciano, David Shiner, and Glenn De Baeremaeker, support Ford’s actions.

Ford’s attack on local democracy is an insult to candidates who have already put their names forward for election and launched their campaigns. It undermines the City of Toronto’s legislated responsibility to decide its own ward boundaries. And it will only exasperate existing disparities in council representation.

August 1, 2018
Mapping the 2018 candidates for Toronto’s 47 wards (Updated)

September 10, 2018
This morning, the Ontario Superior Court ruled against Bill 5, finding that the bill “substantially interfered with the municipal candidate’s freedom of expression that is guaranteed under [Section 2(b) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.]”

Barring a successful provincial appeal (or invoking Section 33 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, also known as the Notwithstanding Clause), this is once again the map of council candidates for the October 22 election.

September 12, 2018
Oh, never mind. We’re back to the 25 wards because its not as if Doug Ford has anything better to do than override a judicial finding with the Notwithstanding Clause and re-introducing the vindictive legislation. And we may not even get to vote in advance polls.

Once the new law is passed, there will be two days for council candidates to sign up to run in the 25 wards.

August 15, 2018

Bill 5, the so-called “Better Local Government Act,” passed third reading on August 13, 2018, and was given royal assent on Tuesday August 14, despite vigourous opposition from the New Democratic Party. Bill 5 passed without any public consultation that usually takes place with any government legislation, as the Progressive Conservatives used procedural tactics to push through the bill as quickly as possible.

(A new map of the 25 wards can be found here.)

This means that legally, the City of Toronto must follow the province’s edict and elect only twenty-five councillors, with wards based on the current provincial riding boundaries. Scarborough Councillor Glenn De Baremaeker has already announced that he will no longer seek re-election.

I have no intentions of removing the map below, but I will be creating a new 25-ward map and populating it once nominations re-open. I suspect that many council candidates will not re-register, and that there will be many more incumbents facing off against each other.

There’s a faint hope that a legal injunction could suspend Bill 5. Council candidate and lawyer Rocco Achampong is seeking one, the courts will hear arguments by the end of the month.

(more…)

July 6, 2018
Mapping Toronto’s approved new ward boundaries

On Monday, October 22, 2018, Torontonians will be electing a new city council. And for the first time since 2000, Toronto’s ward boundaries will be changing.

When the new council is formed on December 1, 2018, there will be 47 wards, up from 44. Downtown Toronto will gain three new seats, and North York will gain one, but one seat is lost in Toronto’s west end, in an area currently represented by Wards 14, 17, and 18. Seven wards in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough will remain unchanged.

Earlier this week, the City of Toronto added the new boundaries to its open data catalogue, so I used the data to create an interactive Google map. This map, embedded below, shows both the current 44 wards, and the approved new 47 wards. Each of the two ward boundary layers can be turned on and off.

Google map showing current and approved new ward boundaries

These new ward boundaries are the result of a long four-year study and consultation process, and represent a compromise that improves representation in high-growth areas, while minimizing the loss of council representation elsewhere. Several other options were explored, including reducing the number of councillors to 25, but they were rejected by the consultants hired by the city to draw the new wards; they were also unpopular among members of the public who attended the consultations.

While Toronto City Council approved the new boundaries in November 2016 (despite Mayor John Tory’s opposition), Councillors Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) and Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7) appealed the new boundaries to the Ontario Municipal Board. Happily, the OMB dismissed the two councillors’ complaints last month. Both councillors are likely to run for re-election in modified versions of their existing wards.

I will update the interactive map, adding candidate names for each of the new wards. Nominations are open from May 1, 2018 through July 27, 2018.

Thanks to Gil Meslin (@g_meslin), who altered me to the fact that the new ward boundaries were available on the city’s website.

January 18, 2018
A call for a progressive Toronto

I created this website two and a half years ago as a repository for the series of maps I created documenting the results of the 2014 municipal election. Unlike many political observers, I focused not just on the mayoral race, but also on each of the 44 council races; I created poll-by-poll maps illustrating how each ward voted, for both mayor and councillor. I thought that the information might be useful for the 2018 election.

I kept this blog going by sharing my thoughts on public transit, land use planning, electoral reform, as well as other diversions, such as out-of-town bike rides and my trip on Cuba’s Hershey Train. It has been a lot of fun sharing those thoughts. Yet I remain interested in city politics, especially in electing better people to Toronto City Hall.

The last municipal election was very disappointing. I originally supported Olivia Chow, before turning my attention to David Soknacki, who ran on a campaign of ideas and honesty, but dropped out in early September 2014. I was repulsed by the incumbent mayor, Rob Ford, and his brother, Doug, yet I couldn’t trust John Tory, who ran on a centre-right platform of low tax increases, a since-discredited transit plan called “SmartTrack” and not being Rob or Doug Ford.

Tory won that election, of course, beating Doug Ford and Olivia Chow. Tory’s support came from his midtown base of relatively affluent, mostly white, home-owning voters. Tory also did well in other affluent neighbourhoods, such as Etobicoke’s Kingsway, Swansea, the Beaches, and Cliffside, and in neighbourhoods where condominium apartments are a common housing type. As Chow’s campaign floundered, Tory picked up the votes from progressive electors afraid of a Doug Ford win. In the end, Olivia Chow did best in west-end, older downtown neighbourhoods like the Annex, Seaton Village, Parkdale, and Trinity-Bellwoods.

How Toronto voted in 2014

Giving Tory some benefits of my doubts, I had hoped that he would push a strong city-building agenda, balancing business interests with the needs of disadvantaged residents. Instead, Toronto got an austerity agenda with the top goal of keeping property taxes low, leaving essential city services underfunded and public housing units falling apart. He resisted police reform, including flip-flopping on the elimination of the racist carding program. His signature transit plan, SmartTrack, was watered down to a point where it’s nearly unrecognizable, wasting valuable time and capital that could have been spent developing the Relief Line subway. It’s almost as if we re-elected Rob Ford, but without the homophobia, overt racism, and self-destructive behaviour.

Tory is backed by a council that has mostly supported his agenda. Had a few council races gone another way, the mayor would have had a harder time freezing or cutting budgets for housing and shelters, transit, libraries, planning services, and other essential programs. Last week, Tory and his council allies endorsed a budget freeze for 2018, defeating motions to exempt homeless shelters, poverty-reduction programs, and long-term care homes. Accounting for inflation, this is in effect, another budget cut of two percent.

John Tory will run for re-election in 2018, and he is already in campaign mode, targeting the province for funds to repair TCHC housing and the Relief Line. It’s possible that Doug Ford will run for mayor again, on a right-wing populist message. So far, no one has indicated that they will run to the left. At least there’s still city council, with 44 members, which is difficult, but possible to change. Council, not the mayor, holds the power.

In 2014, only one incumbent —John Parker, in Ward 26 — was defeated. Parker, a thoughtful and reasoned conservative, lost his seat to Jon Burnside, a former Toronto police officer endorsed by John Tory. In total, only seven new councillors were elected to City Council that year, though there were two by-elections since.

But each of those newcomers were elected either on a second run for city council, came from another level of political office, or had family political ties. There’s hope for next year.

Right-leaning councillors Burnside and Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) ran unsuccessful campaigns in 2010 and won office on the second try. John Campbell (Ward 4) was the previous Chair of the Toronto District School Board, and Jim Karygiannis (Ward 39) was a Liberal MP. Stephen Holyday (Ward 3) is the son of former Etobicoke mayor and councillor Doug Holyday, and Joe Cressy (Ward 20) is also the son of two former Toronto city councillors. Christin Carmichael Greb is the daughter of defeated Conservative MP John Carmichael. Carmichael Greb also enjoyed John Tory’s endorsement; Tory’s robocalls supporting her campaign helped her win in a hotly contested open race.

To win a seat on Toronto City Council, especially without a party system, you need name recognition or you need connections. Having political connections makes it a lot easier to raise money and attract talent to run a campaign. That name recognition gives you attention from the media and helps at the ballot box. It’s a lousy system that shuts out too many fine, talented people who are unable to spend the money and time to run a serious campaign, and it creates political dynasties, for better or for worse.

With only 18 months before the 2018 municipal election, it’s time for anyone who opposes the Ford/Tory agenda to organize.

It’s likely that Mayor Tory will likely win re-election, but we still need a strong, progressive candidate for mayor, willing to take Tory to task for the consequences of his budget cuts, his dithering on transit infrastructure, and his resistance to police reform. If nothing more, it will make the mayor accountable, and energize progressive voters.

But even more importantly, it’s necessary to back progressive candidates for city council, ideally replacing weak representatives on City Council, and especially against unreasonable and uncooperative politicians like Giorgio Mammoliti (Ward 7), and councillors who actively resist change, like Tory ally Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5),who blocked municipal voting reform and is now fighting Toronto’s new ward boundaries.

Council, too, needs even more diversity. It needs more women and people of colour to better reflect the city it is supposed to represent. And there are good people working towards that. For example, on Wednesday, June 7, Women Win Toronto, will launch.

I will be backing several progressive candidates next year — some of whom will be running a second time — by contributing my time and money in key races. (I’ll share my endorsements next year.) Only a few new faces need to be elected to change the dynamic at City Hall. And even if you doubt your chances of winning in 2018, run anyway. You will have the chance to have your voices heard, and set the stage for running again in 2022. That’s how politicians get elected.

Good luck!

May 28, 2017
Mapping Toronto’s proposed new ward boundaries

Toronto is way overdue for ward boundary reform. Finally, in time for the 2018 election, Toronto will have reshaped ward boundaries — and probably three new wards. This will give quickly-growing Downtown Toronto and North York Centre more representation at City Council.

Consultants retained by the City of Toronto have been tasked with reviewing the size and shape of Toronto’s wards, and providing a recommendation for new ward boundaries. Back in August 2015, an options report was released with five distinct options. After further consultation, the final report was released yesterday, May 16.

The final report’s recommendation is similar to the “Minimal Change” option in last August’s options report, but there have been some minor tweaks to the ward boundaries. If the recommendations are approved by City Council, there will be 47 wards, up from 44. Each new ward will have an average population of 61,000, with a range between 51,800 and 72,000 (+/- 15%). These new wards are designed to last for four election cycles, and will be re-drawn again in time for the 2034 election.

The report will be considered by the Executive Committee on May 24, 2016, which will vote on a recommendation to take to City Council on June 7, 2016. If there are no further hiccups, this gives just over two years for aspiring council candidates and city staff to prepare for the next election, which will be held on Monday, October 22, 2018.

The recommendation brought forward is a compromise that improves representation in high-growth areas, while minimizing the loss of council representation elsewhere. It increases the number of councillors, but by a minimal amount. (Had Toronto maintained the practice of having two wards per provincial/federal riding, there would be 50 councillors.) Happily, proposals to cut the number of representatives at City Council were not a very popular idea. In terms of staffing and associated costs, each councillor costs approximately $290,000; it would therefore cost about $870,000 to add three new wards, which in my opinion, is a bargain.

While Downtown Toronto will gain three new seats, and North York gaining one, one seat is lost in Toronto’s west end, in current wards 14, 17, 18. This probably squeezes out Cesar Palacio, a rather poor city councillor who remains in office despite strong competition in the last few elections. Otherwise, despite ward boundary shifts across most of the city, every incumbent councillor should easily find a home that’s mostly made up of their current turf.

I created the CartoDB interactive map, linked below, for Torontoist; my full article is available there.

I mapped the results of the 2014 election for every ward in the city — that was the primary reason why I started this blog in November 2014. That previous work should be helpful for predicting the results of the 2018 election with the new boundaries.

https://seanmarshall1.cartodb.com/viz/5c5c1540-1b21-11e6-8cfa-0ecd1babdde5/map

May 17, 2016
A disappointing step backwards for ranked ballots

I’ve long been a fan of ranked ballots, a voting system that Dave Meslin and the good people at RaBIT have been promoting for a long time. At the municipal level, ranked ballots —also known as instant run-off voting — is a simple, yet effective way of improving local democracy.

Ranked ballots ensure that politicians are elected because they can enjoy the support of a majority of electors, so they are fairer than the first-past-the-post system we currently use to elect city councillors. To some degree, it reduces the advantage that incumbent councillors enjoy due to name recognition, and they promote diversity in local politics. I think they’re a better idea than term limits, recalls, or municipal parties.

The provincial government is currently reviewing the Municipal Elections Act; reforms may allow municipalities to adopt ranked ballots. At first the City of Toronto seemed to be eager to sign on; in 2013, Council adopted a motion to ask the province to allow ranked ballots to replace the current electoral system; more recently Mayor John Tory expressed his support for the idea.

But during a recent council meeting, newly-elected Councillor Justin Di Ciano (Ward 5) just threw a wrench into the works. Calling ranked ballots “confusing,” he put forward a motion to ask the province not to allow ranked ballots. It passed, 25-18.

The map below illustrates the result of that vote by ward.

Incumbent councillors might be wary of ranked ballots, especially if they face multiple opponents. Fifteen councillors (and Mayor Tory) were elected with less than 50% of the vote; they would be vulnerable to ranked ballots. Three of those councillors: Ana Bailão (Ward 18), Joe Cressy (Ward 20), and Raymond Cho (Ward 42), were brave enough to vote the right way on Di Ciano’s motion.

Conversely, councillors such as Norm Kelly (Ward 40, who won with 86% of the vote), Michael Thompson (Ward 37, 84%) and Jaye Robinson (Ward 25, 83%) voted for the motion. Justin Di Ciano himself won with 54% of the vote in Ward 5. The “yes” votes were mostly from Council’s right wing, but left leaning councillors such as Maria Augimeri (Ward 9) and Paula Fletcher (Ward 30) joined in. Augimeri would have almost definitely lost in 2010 had ranked ballots been adopted; it’s possible that Fletcher would have been voted out in 2010 and in 2014 under this voting system.

Map of the share of votes each councillor was elected by in 2014.

The fight for ranked ballots is far from over; Mayor Tory still has plenty of political capital and sway with the provincial government. I’m hopeful that council will reverse itself yet again.

In happier news, Council voted 25-18 in favour of asking the province to allow non-citizen permanent residents to vote in municipal elections. As local government is closest to the people, and makes decisions that affect most individuals on a day-to-day basis, I am in favour of such a move. That said, I still believe that electing federal and provincial representatives should remain a privilege afforded to Canadian citizens.

October 2, 2015
A quick guide to the Toronto Ward Boundary Review

The variance in ward populations in 2018; new ward boundaries will address the population inequities shown above.

Back in March, I wrote about the City’s plans for new ward boundaries, outlining the history of Toronto’s post-amalgamation council and the need for fairer representation. While Toronto’s population continues to increase, most of the growth is concentrated in northeast Scarborough, central North York and Etobicoke, and especially Downtown, where new condo towers are going up by the dozen.

Yesterday, on August 11, the Toronto Ward Boundary Options Report was released, setting the stage for further public consultations. With the report, we now have tangible details of what the new wards might look like, and how many politicians the new council, to be elected in 2018, will be comprised of.

I wrote more about the report in Torontoist, with a discussion on the process, criteria, and the various options presented.

While the mayor may disagre (“I think the last thing we need is more politicians,” he was quoted as saying), I personally prefer the options that add a few more councillors than the existing 44. Back in 1997, the newly amalgamated City of Toronto had 57 city councillors, and with a growing population, a small increase in the size of council is more than appropriate. “Option 1 – Minimal Change” adds three new councillors; two downtown and one in North York; it is not a bad option, though I think fifty is a workable number.

There are plenty of opportunities for feedback, including a survey and a new round of public consultations in the Fall; I recommend taking part and sharing your own views.

August 12, 2015
Why Toronto needs new ward boundaries

The City of Toronto is in the process of reviewing the ward boundaries. This is an overlooked and much needed initiative. Due to population increases in central Toronto, North York and in Scarborough, parts of the city are unrepresented at City Hall. Some councillors are overworked with development proposals in their wards, while other parts of the city are relatively quiet.

While some will argue for fewer politicians (the idea has a populist appeal), I would like to see more city councillors, elected by ranked ballot (which Mayor John Tory supports), to best serve the needs of our diverse and dynamic city. Based upon the population from 2011 census, Wards 20, 23, 27, and 42 are the most underrepresented at City Hall; Ward 42 includes the new Morningside Heights neightbourhood, while condominium construction have swollen the number of residents in Wards 20, 23 and 27. Simply put, the boundaries have to be changed to provide more equal representation. Map of how each ward is under-represented or over-represented in Toronto, map based on one previously created by Christopher Livett

The city’s review process, which you can find more about here, is being conducted by independent consultants, so far free of political influence. Though the first round of public consultations have already occurred, there will be further opportunity to participate in the development of ward boundary options. There has yet to be a decision as to how many councillors Toronto should have going forward, or what the boundaries will look like. The committee will report to city council in early-mid 2016 with their recommendations, giving plenty of time before the next election, which will be held in October, 2018.

(more…)

March 26, 2015