Tag: Durham Region

  • Why an Oshawa gondola should be a no-go

    Looking north on Simcoe Street, July 2026

    On June 30, 2026, the Toronto Star featured a story about the City of Oshawa’s “lofty plan” to build a new urban aerial gondola system above Simcoe Street, that community’s main north-south corridor. While the technology is novel, it is a fundamentally bad idea for what the regional government proposes it for. Simcoe Street is currently served by the busiest bus route in Durham Region – Route 901 Pulse – as well as several GO Transit buses (routes 52, 56, and 92).

    Gondolas have their place in the urban transit toolbox and they have several advantages. They can be inexpensive to build, as they require minimal right-of-way acquisition and do not require tunnelling. They are adept for climbing steep hills and can offer very frequent service with low operating costs. Gondolas can operate in all sorts of weather conditions, from tropical cities to mountain ski resorts. Modern gondola or cable lift operations allow each car to slow or stop at each station to allow passengers to comfortably board and alight, unlike older, traditional ski lifts. The technology is popular in Latin American cities such as Medellín, Colombia (where the Metrocable system feeds that city’s metro), and La Paz, Bolivia, where a network of Mi Teleférico lines makes up the backbone of the transit service.

    Metrocable, by FABIAN KRONENBERGER, on Flickr (CC BY-ND 2.0)

    But in those hilly cities in developing countries, the gondolas cover short distances (only between two and five stations per line) and have limited capacity (Mexico City’s Mexicable line has an hourly capacity of just 3,000 per hour). In the United States, the only transit-based aerial cable cars are the Roosevelt Island Tramway in New York and the Portland Aerial Tram, which charges a very high $9 round-trip fare to the general public. In Canada, the most serious gondola proposal would connect Simon Fraser University with the Skytrain in Burnaby, BC and be part of the Translink network. That proposal – though stalled – is logical as it involves just two stations and allows passengers to easily access the university campus located at the top of Burnaby Mountain, reducing the number of buses that have to climb that long, winding access road.

    In contrast, the idea of a gondola running over Simcoe Street in Oshawa makes very little sense, and it seems that the concept will not get beyond a consultant’s report. There are far more reasonable alternatives that merit a closer look, including simple painted bus lanes and other “BRT-lite” measures that can benefit both Durham Region Transit (DRT) and GO Transit passengers.

    Oshawa’s transit past and future

    Simcoe Street, Oshawa’s backbone, has always been the key to Oshawa’s development as an industrial centre; its future opportunities also line the corridor; good transit is essential.

    Established as a small village at the crossroads of Kingston Road and Simcoe Street (an early “colonialization road” that connected Lake Ontario with Lake Scugog), Oshawa grew as an industrial centre starting in the 1870s, when Robert McLaughlin’s carriage works moved to expanded facilities in Oshawa to be nearer the Grand Trunk Railway (GTR) and Oshawa Harbour. As more industries followed, a streetcar line, the first component of the Oshawa Railway Company (OR) was built on Simcoe Street in 1895 to connect the burgeoning downtown with the GTR station and harbour to the south. The original Simcoe Street line was built with several freight spurs to allow shippers direct rail access to their properties. Residents could take the streetcar down to Lakeview Park to relax or to beat the summer heat.

    As industry grew (the McLaughlin Carriage Works moved into automobile manufacturing starting in 1907, eventually becoming the founding component of General Motors Canada) OR built a new freight-only electric line east of Simcoe Street with direct freight yard connections with the GTR. When the Canadian Pacific and Canadian Northern Railways built new lines through the Oshawa area, the OR connected with those as well. The incomplete Toronto Eastern Railway, a failed interurban line along Kingston Road, provided some use to OR as it provided access to several customers along the TER’s completed section of track.

    Though buses replaced passenger service on the single-track Simcoe Street streetcar line in 1940, OR’s freight operations remained busy until the 1960s, with the last electric locomotive withdrawn in 1964. Oshawa’s bus service was taken over by Durham Region Transit in 2006.

    When GM opened a modern assembly complex south of the new Highway 401 in 1950, it slowly abandoned its older plants north and west of the downtown core. Its new property had direct CN and CP rail connections and no longer relied on the OR. Meanwhile, other factories such as A.G. Simpson, Duplate/Pittsburgh Plate Glass, Fittings Limited, Ontario Malleable Iron, and Pedlar People, either closed or stopped relying on rail shipments. The old OR tracks, operated by CN diesels in the last few decades, disappeared in the 1990s, replaced by the Michael Starr multi-use trail north of Highway 401. The last remnant of the Oshawa Railway, a Highway 401 overpass built in the late 1930s, was demolished in 2011.

    After OR removed its remaining downtown trackage in the 1960s, a one-way road system was implemented in Downtown Oshawa. Simcoe Street became northbound-only between Brock and Elm Streets with Centre Street taking on southbound traffic. King Street was twinned with Bond Street, which followed the disused Toronto Eastern Railway tracks. This helped to speed traffic through the downtown core.

    Many of the older industrial lands saw new uses: Most of the old GM North Plant properties are now home to apartment buildings, the Durham Regional Courthouse, and a big box retail complex anchored by Costco Wholesale. The Pedlar People plant was demolished to become a Zellers-anchored plaza on Simcoe Street South. The Ontario Malleable Iron factory became a Knob Hill Farms supermarket which operated between 1981 and 2000. That plant, now mostly demolished, is to be the site of a new GO Transit station; surrounding property, including the old PPG plant, is designated for future development.

    Facade of the old Ontario Malleable Iron factory, later Knob Hill Farms

    The construction of Highway 401 and changes to intercity rail also changed Oshawa considerably. As Toronto grew and GM’s influence began to decline, Oshawa became part of the metropolitan commutershed. CN closed the old GTR station off Simcoe Street and built a new modern station between Oshawa and Whitby in 1967, consolidating passenger service for those two communities at a single location with space for commuter parking. Though GO Transit was also established that year, its trains only went as far east as Pickering; GO bus service via Highway 401 and via Highway 2 extended the provincial agency’s reach to Oshawa until 1995, when the Lakeshore East line was fully extended to Oshawa.

    Map of Oshawa’s transit past and possible future, highlighting the old Oshawa Railway streetcar and freight tracks, connecting railways, and major Oshawa institutions. The proposed route of the gondola along Simcoe Street is highlighted in green. Click image for full size.

    With the decline of General Motors’ Canadian operations along with many of its feeder plants, Oshawa’s economy shifted towards education and government services while becoming more of a Toronto suburb rather than an independent industrial centre. The downtown hockey arena/entertainment venue, which opened as the General Motors Centre, is now named for Tribute Communities, a residential developer. Durham College’s campus, on the north end of the city, has grown and now includes Ontario Tech University. Between the campus and downtown is the main Lakeridge Health campus, which is the largest hospital in Durham Region.

    As Oshawa and its postsecondary educations have continued to grow, it is no wonder that Durham Region Transit’s 901 Simcoe Street bus – the successor to the old Oshawa Railway streetcar – is so busy and congested. But a gondola is not the right solution, either.

    Why better buses are the answer

    Typical traffic on Simcoe Street at Adelaide Avenue, near the famous Parkwood Estate and Lakeridge Hospital

    As Metrolinx starts work on the Bowmanville GO Transit expansion – which will extend the Lakeshore East rail corridor into central Oshawa and eastward into Clarington – it is replacing the Simcoe Street bridge over the CPKC tracks, a two-year project that has forced the closure of Oshawa’s main street south of downtown. Most north-south traffic now follows Ritson Road, Park Road, or Stevenson Road. Though traffic is heavier on each of those alternatives (especially on Ritson), Oshawa is coping without experiencing complete gridlock.

    Metrolinx construction on the replacement Simcoe Street Bridge

    Ideally, when the Simcoe Street bridge reopens in late 2027 or early 2028, two of its lanes could be dedicated to DRT and GO buses. These bus-only lanes can then extend northwards towards Downtown Oshawa, Lakeridge Hospital, and Durham College/Ontario Tech. As some of Oshawa’s most important destinations, such as the Oshawa Centre shopping mall and the Oshawa GO/VIA Rail station, are off Simcoe Street, buses can divert on and off the bus lanes to serve those, and other, trip generators; a gondola would not be able to do so.

    As the Bowmanville extension of the Lakeshore East GO service will see limited service (peak-direction train service during rush hours and limited off-peak runs) along with a low-speed diversion from the GO corridor to the CPKC line, many passengers connecting to GO towards Toronto would still choose to transfer at the main GO/VIA station.

    As the planned new Oshawa Centre GO Station is located on the old Malleable Iron/Knob Hill site two blocks east of Simcoe Street, a gondola would have to swing over to serve it or force a long walking transfer. Depending on how bus service on Simcoe Street is planned by DRT, buses could either divert to serve it, or a dedicated route could provide that connection.

    Portion of DRT system map centred on Downtown Oshawa (full system map available here)

    Furthermore, the former Oshawa Railway lands can be better utilized for active transportation purposes. Though the Michael Starr trail runs all the way from Lviv Boulevard (just north of Highway 401) to Taunton Road, it is treated as a recreational trail, rather than a vital transport link. At most crossings, east-west motor traffic is prioritized over pedestrians and cyclists, with “stop and dismount” signs at many trail crossings. There is also a considerable gap between Bruce Street south of Downtown Oshawa and Adelaide Street to the north, as the OR followed Bruce Street and Ritson Road to serve GM’s north plant.

    Creating a high-quality through cycling path using part of the OR/Michael Starr right-of-way and improving the existing bike lanes on Mary Street through Downtown Oshawa and extending it to Durham College/Ontario Tech can divert some DRT passengers between the future GO station, the downtown, the hospital, and the campus, and get at least a few car drivers to switch to active transport modes.

    Michael Starr Trail, built on the old OR right-of-way. Note the yellow “stop and dismount” signs.

    If built, Oshawa’s 13-kilometre, 16-station gondola line would be the longest urban aerial transit route in the world and while it might allow for the retention of four lanes of traffic on Simcoe Street, land would still be required to build the towers, stations, and maintenance facility. Buildings will still have to be demolished. The gondola’s capacity would be limited. The estimated $1.1 billion spent on gondola towers, stations, and vehicles could be much better spent.

    Once better bus and active transportation infrastructure is provided, Oshawa might find that the fears of Simcoe Street gridlock may not come to pass. An expensive median busway is not necessarily the answer either: simple reserved lanes, enhanced bus stops with off-board fare payment and all-door bus boarding, signal priority and queue-jumps at busy intersections could do a lot in the short term. Yes, that would mean inconvenience for drivers, but the Metrolinx construction on Simcoe Street south is already an inconvenience.


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  • Can you walk to City Hall?

    Can you walk to City Hall?

    Mississauga City Hall, one of the most walkable municipal buildings in Ontario

    In late March 2024, with a streak of mild, sunny days, I was eager to get outside and walk. As I have long been interested in local politics and planning issues, public transit, active transportation (especially walking advocacy), I thought I would try to get to every city, town, and township hall in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) without a car.

    This was a fun project, even if there were times I felt really frustrated at times by poor transit and long hikes. The highlight of my quest was a tour of Mississauga City Hall from Councillor Joe Horneck. Mississauga’s civic centre is one of Ontario’s most iconic — and walkable — government buildings.

    Mississauga Council Chambers

    Of the three levels of government (federal, provincial, municipal), the municipal level has the most impact on the day-to-day lives of most Canadians; it is also the closest level of government to all. Residents can depute at committee meetings, get meetings with their local councillor and city staff, and obtain building permits, marriage licenses, or pay bills at city and town halls. Therefore, they should be as accessible as possible, especially to those without cars.

    Only one GTHA town hall (Caledon) was completely inaccessible without a car, though several other town halls required long walks from the nearest transit stop, making them inaccessible to some residents. But I could get to Brock Township, the least-populated and most-rural municipality in the GTHA, thanks to Durham Region Transit’s On-Demand service, though I had some difficulty there.

    The complete list of GTHA city and town halls, along with photographs and a map can be accessed here.

    Preview of Story Map

  • Can on-demand transit meet your demand?

    Can on-demand transit meet your demand?

    Durham Region Transit On Demand sedan

    Earlier in March, as part of my quest to visit every town, city, and regional government office in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) without a car, I took my first on-demand transit rides in a decade. This was necessary to visit Brock Township’s municipal offices, located in the village of Cannington, north of Port Perry. (I will discuss more about this project in the coming weeks.)

    Brock Township’s municipal offices, at right, sits in the heart of the village of Cannington

    Brock Township is the GTHA’s most rural and least populated municipality, home to just over 12,000. Until April 2023, GO Transit ran a daily bus service between Whitby GO Station, Port Perry, Cannington, and Beaverton (Brock’s largest community), but was cancelled after a ridership review. (GO has quietly cancelled several other bus routes that don’t cross county or regional boundaries in the last decade.) However, Durham Region Transit (DRT) offered an alternative: on demand transit.

    On-demand transit is not a new idea. In the 1970s, GO Transit operated experimental dial-a-bus services in suburban parts of Toronto, offering door-to-door service to and from the nearest subway station or a designated transfer point to frequent fixed-route bus services. In Bramalea, Chinguacousy Township operated Bramalea Dial-a-Bus, which brought residents to local employers, schools, and Bramalea City Centre. The service was replaced by fixed-route services when Brampton Transit was established shortly after amalgamation, merging the dial-a-bus operation and a privately contracted transit service in the old town of Brampton.

    Still image from “People on the GO,” a 1973 film by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Communications. Bramalea’s Dial-a-Bus’ pink “lazy-b” logo was adopted by the successor transit agency, Brampton Transit during its first decade.

    “Trans-Cab” services continue to be used in outlying areas of communities such as Hamilton, Peterborough, and Sudbury, where transit agencies partner with local taxi companies to allow transit riders to begin or end their journey outside of urban or regional fixed-route areas, often at a premium fare.

    My first on-demand transit experience was taking Oakville Transit’s “zone bus” service in 2005. At the time, there was no fixed-route Sunday bus service in Oakville, but there were four zones for which you could call and request a ride, with a bus picking you up at the nearest bus stop. If your destination was in a different zone, you would transfer to another bus at Oakville GO Station. Today, Oakville offers on-demand service during late evenings from the Oakville GO Station and in new and outlying subdivisions where there are no nearby scheduled services.

    My other previous on-demand transit experience was in Winter and early Spring 2012, after I suffered a broken knee cap and had to rely on Toronto’s Wheel-Trans paratransit system. Though I was fortunate to be able to get around using Wheel-Trans during a temporary disability, it was often a frustrating experience trying to book trips, especially for social or leisure purposes. I quickly came to prefer the conventional system and used it as much as I could while recovering from that injury.

    A common message while trying to book rides on DRT On-Demand

    In 2024, there are over a dozen transit agencies providing on-demand transit services in Ontario and Quebec, either as standalone operations or in conjunction with fixed-route systems. You can find them in my interactive transport maps.

    Modern on-demand services, though they are typically accessed by mobile apps these days, present some of the same challenges, including cumbersome booking processes as well as high demand and limited availability for next-day and same-day trips.

    DRT offers on-demand transit trips for customers with disabilities (who are eligible for door-to-door service anywhere in the region), rural areas, and in designated urban areas (where pickups and drop offs are made at signed bus stops).

    DRT rural services, showing the rural on-demand service area and transfer points to fixed-route services (including GO buses at Downtown Uxbridge, Brock/407 and Clarington North)

    As Brock Township was the most distant and most difficult town hall in the GTHA to reach by public transport, I tried to book for the first day of my visits: Monday, March 11. After downloading the DRT app and inputting my information (name, email address, mobile phone number) I tried to book a return trip from Port Perry (which has a scheduled route connecting it to Uxbridge, Oshawa, and Whitby) the day before.

    At one point, I was able to get an outbound trip around 12:00 PM, but I could not get a return trip after multiple attempts. After failed attempts to book each ride, the app would go back to the beginning, requiring the user to input most of the same information multiple times. I gave up and went to northern York Region instead. After midnight, early Monday morning, when one could book trips for the following day, I tried again and managed to get a return trip that met my needs for Tuesday the 12th.

    Unable to book a return trip from Cannington to Port Perry for Monday, March 11, 2024

    Once I booked my trip, the rest of the experience was smooth. I got a text reminder of my upcoming trips, and on the app, I could track my upcoming ride, much like Uber or Lyft, with the driver’s name, vehicle description, and location. Each time, I paid with my Presto card, with DRT charging the same fare for on-demand as for conventional bus service. Drivers were professional and friendly. I was the only passenger for both trips, though they are often shared, and minibuses — such as accessible paratransit vehicles — are used for passengers with disabilities or larger groups.

    Notice of pickup

    I learned that the service could be quite busy and the app sometimes problematic — there is also a toll-free number that passengers can call, and that sometimes the telephone agent would be able to find matching rides that the app would not show.

    I was lucky that my trip was discretionary, but I could see how on-demand transit can be difficult and/or frustrating to use.

    Though DRT has restored most urban bus routes (many were suspended during pandemic-related restrictions), it still struggles to meet demand on its busiest corridors, especially those serving colleges and universities in Oshawa, Whitby, and Scarborough. A fire in one of DRT’s garages last summer hasn’t helped either. As a result, some urban areas in Ajax, Pickering, Whitby, and Bowmanville still have on-demand areas where fixed-route services have yet to be restored.

    On-demand transit has its place, especially in rural and outlying suburban areas, or during times of low demand. If done right, it provides affordable mobility to people who might otherwise go without, and as an alternative to driving a car or paying an expensive taxi fare for those with travel options. Durham Region has done a good job covering the entire region with fixed-route and on-demand services, especially at night, where the urban south enjoys 24-hour transit access.

    DRT overnight services, which includes two scheduled buses and five on-demand zones in the urbanized part of the region.

    Despite Durham’s efforts, on-demand services can be costly to operate, less flexible for prospective passengers, and be frustrating to use, though they can cover much larger areas than line haul routes. Scheduled, fixed-route buses offer predictable, simple, and often faster service than point-to-point bespoke services. On-demand transit has its place, but it is only one tool in a vast toolbox of mobility solutions. This was true in the 1970s and remains true today.

  • Neither here, nor there: the folly of transit naming rights

    On Tuesday, October 4, Metrolinx announced a new name for Oshawa GO Station, the eastern terminus of its busy Lakeshore Corridor. In a ten-year agreement with Durham College, a publicly funded post-secondary institution, the station will now be known as “Durham College Oshawa GO.” This was announced on Metrolinx’s Twitter account, Durham College’s social media, and on the GO Transit Lakeshore East Twitter account, which usually advises passengers of train delays and cancellations.

    GO Transit Lakeshore East Train tweet on October 4
    “Allow us to reintroduce ourselves” – promotional poster at Oshawa Station proclaiming the new “Durham College Oshawa GO” name

    Metrolinx, the regional transit agency that operates GO Transit, claims that “the partnership allows us to better serve Durham Region and the GTHA” in its communications, including an informational poster in front of the station building.

    The news did not go over well with GO Transit customers and transit users across the Greater Toronto Area; Metrolinx later deleted its tweet after it was “ratioed” — meaning that negative comments and quote-tweets outnumbered the number of positive responses by a large margin. It is easy to understand why the station renaming was not popular.

    Firstly, though “Oshawa” remains in the station name, Durham College comes first with the new moniker. Schedules, signs, and maps will be updated to reflect the new name, while announcements by on-board staff and digital schedule information already reflect the new name. VIA Rail, which shares the station with GO Transit, is not a party to the agreement, and will likely continue referring to the station as “Oshawa.”

    Specific details of the agreement, such as how much Durham College is paying for the branding agreement, remain confidential.

    On GO Transit schedule boards, Oshawa Station now appears as “DC Oshawa GO”

    The new policy of naming rights agreements goes against years of Metrolinx policy for naming stations. When planning the Eglinton-Crosstown LRT, it developed five standards for naming stations and stops:

    1. Simple. Simple names are easier to remember

    2. Logical. Logical names provide a mental link when trip planning: they should be relevant to the area they reside

    3. Durable. Names should be relevant as long as the station exists

    4. Self-Locating. Names should allow users to mentally locate themselves within the region

    5. Unique. A unique name is one that cannot be confused with any other.

    Metrolinx principles for determining new names

    “Durham College Oshawa GO” violates most of the above principles. The name is now a mouthful, much like “Vaughan Metropolitan Centre” (another controversial station name that the TTC objected to, but was overruled due to political considerations), and is no longer simple. The agreement only lasts ten years, so it is not durable. As I will explain further, the name is also neither logical, self-locating, nor unique.

    Durham College has three campuses. Its main campus is located in the north end of Oshawa, on a site shared with Ontario Tech University. GO Transit has a bus stop there called “Ontario Tech/Durham College” that is served by GO Transit Route 56 on weekdays, and Route 52 on weekends and holidays. The main Oshawa campus is a two hour walk from the GO station, a 25-35 minute GO bus ride, or a 20 minute drive from the station. This was the main reason why transit users were ridiculing the new station name on Twitter.

    Durham College’s Whitby Campus is much closer to Oshawa GO Station, in fact, it is less than 500 metres from the Oshawa GO Station parking lot as the crow flies. Oshawa Station is actually right on the border of Oshawa and Whitby, with the “Welcome to Oshawa” signs next to the main GO Transit parking lot. The overflow lot for Oshawa GO is actually in the Town of Whitby.

    The “Oshawa: Prepare To Be Amazed” sign marking the city limit sits next to the GO Station parking lot.

    However, the Whitby campus is even harder to get to from Oshawa GO than the main Oshawa campus because it is separated by Highway 401. It is a 41 minute walk between the station and the Whitby college campus along Victoria Street (which has no sidewalks along most of its length), Thickson Road, Stellar Drive, and Champlain Avenue, though a footbridge over the highway would reduce the walking time to a more comfortable 15 minutes.

    Google Maps directions from Oshawa Station to Durham College Whitby Campus
    Looking northwest from the Oshawa GO parking lot towards Durham College Whitby Campus, the large grey building above and to the right of the green Thickson Road exit sign
    Looking east on Champlain Boulevard in front of the Whitby campus across Highway 401 towards Oshawa GO Station, which is marked by the tall digital billboard towering over the roadway

    The irony is that both major Durham College campuses are better reached from Whitby Station than the newly named “Durham College Oshawa GO.” There are no direct buses to the Whitby Campus from Oshawa Station, but Durham Region Transit (DRT) Route 917 provides regular service from Whitby Station. Furthermore, DRT operates more frequent service on Route 905 between Whitby Station and the Oshawa Campus than GO Transit does from Oshawa Station. Google Transit itself recommends transferring at Whitby to DRT, rather than at Oshawa, because the connections are more convenient. GO Route 56 operates only every hour on weekdays, and Route 52 runs every two hours on weekends and holidays. Meanwhile Route 905 stops in front of the Oshawa campus every 15-30 minutes, 7 days a week.

    The connection at Oshawa Station to Durham College’s main Oshawa Campus makes sense only when transferring from a VIA Train, or from GO Transit Route 88 from Peterborough and Clarington.

    Excerpt from Durham Region Transit system map, with Oshawa and Whitby stations and both Durham College campus locations highlighted

    Therefore, at this point, renaming Oshawa Station to “Durham College Oshawa GO” makes no sense. The new name violates basic wayfinding standards, while Durham College itself is better accessed from a different GO Station. Perhaps Durham College could operate a shuttle service to its campuses from the station, making the co-branding a more plausible.

    More concerning is that future renamings are in the work. In February, I noted that Metrolinx was looking for expressions of interest for station naming opportunities, specifically four Lakeshore Corridor stations: Whitby GO Station, Exhibition GO Station, Clarkson GO Station and Oakville GO Station, but noted that they would be willing to consider other proposals as well.

    Though I am critical of the process, I am sympathetic to Metrolinx’s position. I do not believe they were supportive of the province’s decision to rename a major LRT project for a political ally and paid advisor to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. I strongly believe there are many within the organization who are not happy about the station renaming agreements either. They must work with a very “hands on” government that is eager to promote new transit projects and benefit their supporters.

    Such is the state of things in Ontario.

  • Why Durham Region is going the microtransit route during the pandemic – and what it means for other transit systems

    Why Durham Region is going the microtransit route during the pandemic – and what it means for other transit systems

    Durham Region Transit and GO Transit buses meeting at Durham College/Ontario Tech University

    Previously on this site, I expressed my skepticism about Durham Region’s commitment to improving transit service. But in the five years since, the region east of Toronto has done exactly that by creating a route grid along major corridors, fusing together a network from four separate municipal systems.

    While the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has seen transit ridership plummet across the province, followed by service cuts to match the reduced demand, Durham is doing two interesting things: firstly, it is adding additional service on its main corridors, and it is replacing twenty-five low ridership routes with on-demand transit.

    In my latest article for TVO.org, I take a closer look at Durham Region Transit’s response to shifting ridership during a pandemic and the benefits and pitfalls of microtransit as a potential solution.

  • A sudden drop in transit usage across the Toronto Region

    A sudden drop in transit usage across the Toronto Region

    IMG_6299-001Last week, I wrote about how several TTC routes were facing overcrowding, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, and a severe drop in system-wide ridership since early March. I shared this analysis on Spacing’s website, and Ben Spurr at the Toronto Star reported more about the story this week.

    Though detailed ridership data is not freely accessible, I wanted to see how ridership on the TTC, GO Transit, and other Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area transit agencies was faring. Helpfully, the team behind the Transit app, a trip-planning smartphone tool, made their usage data available to transit agencies, journalists, and data nerds to track transit demand during the pandemic. Although there are some limitations to using this data (more on that later), it’s an excellent metric for tracking transit ridership for dozens of major transit authorities across Canada and the United States, representing nearly every major metropolitan region.

    The numbers used to determine transit ridership demand is based on usage of the Transit app. (While Transit is one of several apps that can be used to plan trips, including Metrolinx’s own Triplinx app, Transit is my favourite). Normal usage is defined by Transit as app sessions observed on the same day of the week one year ago, averaged over three weeks and corrected for yearly growth in the corresponding transit agency. Hence, a rapidly-growing system, such as Brampton’s, can be represented accurately by the app.

    Data was available for every transit agency in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, apart from paratransit services (e.g. Wheel-Trans, Transhelp, DARTS, etc.) and Milton and Caledon Transit, the smallest fixed-route services. The graph below shows the how the usage of the Transit app fluctuated based upon the expected value, reflected as a percentage.

    GTHA Transit app usage from Feb 15 2020
    Transit app usage compared to expected for GTHA transit agencies, February 15 to April 6, 2020 (click for larger image)

    Note how the actual Transit app usage dropped by over 40% for every transit agency on Monday, February 17, which was Family Day, a provincial holiday in Ontario. Most transit services were operating on a weekend or holiday service, while students and many workers did not take transit. This was likely compared with normal Mondays, hence the one-day drop.

    It wasn’t until the second week of March that ridership began to decline as the number of COVID-19 cases began to surge in Canada and the United States, and governments began announcing new measures to reduce the rate of infection. On Thursday March 12, Ontario announced that public schools, scheduled to close for March Break, would stay closed for two additional weeks (the shutdown has since been extended). That day, the National Basketball League suspended the season, followed quickly by all other sports leagues. Employers began to implement contingency measures, such as work-from-home arrangements. By Monday the 16th, all restaurants were closed to sit-down clientele, and most entertainment venues closed.

    By the week of March 29, transit demand was down by 75 to 82 percent across the Greater Toronto Area. Although many workers were either laid off or were sent home to work, employees in the healthcare, personal care, logistics, essential retail service (i.e. grocery workers), and food manufacturing industries remained on the job. This is evident in the difference between the demand for the subway (-81%) and the surface network (buses and streetcars, -76%) as they serve very different employment centres. Transit’s numbers are comparable to the TTC’s own ridership estimates.

    GTA_Ridership_COVID
    Map depicting estimated drops in transit demand for GTHA transit agencies compared to expected use for week of March 29 to April 5, 2020. Data from Transit app.

    Brampton Transit had the lowest estimated reduction in demand, at -75%. This could be for the same reasons that several bus routes in Toronto saw crowding despite a system-wide drop in ridership. Brampton’s population is relatively lower-income than many other suburban municipalities in Halton, Peel, and York Regions. Brampton also has many large food processing employers, such as Maple Lodge Farms, and many warehouses and distribution centres, including two major Amazon Fulfillment Centres. Brampton Transit connects to other major manufacturing and logistics employment areas in Mississauga, Vaughan and Toronto, including Pearson Airport.

    Oakville Transit had the greatest drop, which can be explained by two factors. The first is that Oakville, is a relatively more affluent municipality, with fewer logistics and food industry employers. Secondly, its bus network is designed entirely to connect with GO Transit’s Lakeshore Line, which feeds Downtown Toronto. Therefore, the ridership dependent on Oakville Transit is more likely to be working from home than Brampton’s.

    It must be noted that Transit’s figures are not the same as detailed ridership numbers collected by each transit agency. For example, Metrolinx cited a 90% drop in ridership across the GO Transit train and bus network, compared to Transit’s 79% estimate drop. Nonetheless, Transit’s data is a valuable metric.

    With the sudden drop in ridership, there’s also a sudden drop in revenue. While many systems, including Brampton Transit and GO Transit have made service reductions, they have been careful to ensure enough capacity remains to safely meet demand. Every system has also increased vehicle and station cleaning, and most have stopped collecting fares to protect both passengers and operators. Just like laid-off employees, students, and freelance workers, transit too will need a bailout of some kind to rebuild lost ridership and maintain safe and healthy services.

    Transit projects such as the Eglinton-Crosstown LRT, the new relief transit service for central Toronto (be it the Relief Line or Ontario Line), and GO Transit expansion must go on, as does the progress made in building ridership at suburban systems such as Brampton and Durham Region.

  • On transit ridership in the GTHA

    Earlier this week, the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) released its agenda for the next board meeting, to be held on March 23. Among the items to be discussed are updates on the delayed Line 1 subway extension to York University and Vaughan, plans for the Line 2 subway extension to Scarborough Centre, the new MiWay/GO Transit terminal at Kipling Station, the planned new 514 Cherry streetcar line and other Waterfront bus improvements, and a ridership update.

    As always, Steve Munro is on top of it all, and I encourage you to read his post.

    I wanted to make a few observations about ridership, especially in Toronto’s suburbs. Growth in the TTC’s ridership has slowed down in the last three years, from a 2.1% annual increase in 2013, to a much more modest 0.5% increase in 2015.

    Ridership figures are not detailed enough to know at what times of the day ridership is changing, nor on what routes. But ridership growth has fallen (or even declined) for other major Canadian transit systems, including Vancouver, Montreal, and Ottawa. There are many causes for changes to ridership — population and employment growth or decline, fare increases, service improvements or cuts, even the cost of gas, which has been declining in the last two years. Much of the employment growth within the City of Toronto has been in the downtown core, but so has the population growth due to new residential highrises. (I’m one of thousands who live and work in or near the downtown core — my TTC use is now mostly during the evenings and weekends as I mostly walk to work).

    Hopefully, the Commission and the city don’t use this short-term trend as  an excuse to hold back on needed service improvements or projects such as the Relief Line — for one thing, many buses, streetcars and subway trains are already overcapacity, and it is impossible to know whether slower ridership increases represent a long-term trend, or a short-term blip.

    There was one table in the TTC ridership update that caught my attention. The table, on page 5, shows the ridership for every Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area transit system (though excluding Milton Transit). I reproduced that table below.

    Ridership

    GTHA transit agency annual growth rates, 2013 to 2015. Adapted from TTC 2016 Ridership Update, page 5.

    While the TTC’s ridership growth has slowed, ridership in many suburban municipalities have either flatlined or declined. Only Mississauga and Brampton show consistent, positive growth over the last three years. MiWay, previously known as Mississauga Transit, hasn’t expanded transit operations that much in the last few years, but that city continues to enjoy modest employment growth and improved connections to the airport, Brampton Transit and the TTC. It is currently building a new bus rapid transit (BRT) line, the Mississauga Transitway (more on that in a later post), and city council is backing the Hurontario LRT line, which would largely replace bus service on its busiest corridor.

    Brampton’s growth has been, by far, the most impressive. That suburban municipality is growing thanks mostly due to new sprawling subdivisions, but since in the last decade, Brampton Transit has been introducing annual system improvements, including the Zum “BRT-lite” network of limited-stop bus routes. Brampton’s ridership is now almost that of the Hamilton Street Railway (HSR). Unlike Hamilton, Brampton doesn’t have two major post-secondary educational institutions, nor a dense urban core, though it serves Humber College, York University, and two secondary Sheridan College campuses in Brampton and Misssissauga.

    In Hamilton, ridership dropped by 1.8% in 2015. Most ridership in Hamilton is concentrated in the lower city, as well as a few trip generators in the suburbs, including Mohawk Collage on the Mountain, and Lime Ridge Mall. Many parts of the lower city have been hit hard by job losses in that city’s major industries, though new subdivisions (and, to a lesser extent, downtown gentrificaton) have contributed to modest population growth. Hamilton is going ahead with a provincially-funded east-west light rail line that will connect McMaster University, Downtown Hamilton, and the east end.

    Elsewhere, transit ridership growth has been quite disappointing. Burlington Transit saw a drastic 13.3% decline over the last three years, Durham Region, which I recently visited, saw a major decrease in 2015. However, there is lots of promise in its five-year service strategies, which will improve and simplify the agency’s route structure and provide enhanced service.

    2015 Ridership
    2015 ridership for GTHA transit agencies (Milton excluded). The TTC, with narly 75% of the region’s ridership total, dominates. GO Transit holds another 9%. 

    York Region Transit, serving a population of 1.2 million, has only 1 million annual riders more than Brampton, whose population is nearly half of York’s. And despite adding new subdivisions (and a few new residential towers), ridership declined in the last two years. As illustrated in the table below, YRT’s ridership per capita is less than half of Hamilton’s or Mississauga’s.

    YRT Ridership StatsComparing York Region Transit to other Canadian transit systems, 2013. From the VRT/Viva 5 year service plan, page 7. 

    It’s interesting that despite poor transit ridership (amid York Region Council-mandated service cuts and steep fare hikes) York Region, with senior government assistance, is spending $1.4 billion on dedicated median busways on Highway 7, Yonge Street and Davis Drive. York Region will get the Spadina subway extension in 2017, and it pines for an extension of the over-burdened Yonge Subway to Richmond Hill Centre.

    In York Region, there’s a troubling disconnect between spending money on capital projects and funding the services that will use the shiny new infrastructure, or feed ridership to it. Brampton has proven that growing service, not necessarily fancy infrastructure, will grow ridership. That said, it remains disappointing that the suburban municipality with the best record for ridership growth in the Toronto region rejected a funded light rail transit line to its downtown core.

  • Dispatches from Durham Region, and Kingston Road tokenism

    Two weeks ago, I was out exploring Durham Region, the eastern end of the Greater Toronto Area. While south Durham Region is mostly made up of generic suburban sprawl, there are some interesting historic villages and new urbanist neighbourhoods. North of Highway 7, Durham Region is still mostly rural, though plans for a new airport in North Pickering may change that.

    Sadly, Durham Region remains auto-centric in its outlook, even more so than other suburbs to the north and west of Toronto. The provincial government is constructing an eastern extension of Highway 407, with two new connecting highways to Highway 401 either nearly complete, or proposed. Oshawa, the largest city in Durham, is the birthplace of General Motors Canada, but while the auto industry declines, the city has been continuing to make many civic planning mistakes. And in Ajax, a small symbol of change – new bus and bicycle lanes – is still merely a token effort.

    (more…)